Tuesday, April 24, 2012

NFL Mock Draft

Mock drafts are fun to read as a fan. They're even fun to do. But in the end they are pretty useless. It's almost impossible to know what's actually going to happen in the 1st round (and some of these mocks try to predict all 7 rounds). There are too many factors: team needs, team rankings of the players (which presumably takes into account each player's strengths, weaknesses, injury concerns, character issues, and intangibles), tendencies of the front office personnel, and everything unexpected that is sure to happen on draft day (trades, players being unexpectedly available etc.). So, anyways, here's my first and only 2012 mock NFL draft.


1. Colts: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford
There's not much, if anything, I can add to what has already been said about, who many are claiming to be, the safest prospect coming out of college football since John Elway (also formerly of Stanford). He's got everything you want physically and mentally in your franchise QB. The Colts can't go wrong with this one.

ALTERNATE: none.


2. Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor
Any other year, RGIII would be the first overall pick. He is like Michael Vick, but a much better passer already. The key for him will be to be disciplined about staying in the pocket in the NFL and not turning to his legs at the first sign of trouble. He's my early-season pick for NFL rookie of the year with Shanahan calling the shots.

ALTERNATE: none. 


3. Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT USC
There's a lot of chatter about the Vikes passing on Kalil and picking Claiborne or trading down. I don't buy it. They're a cover-2 team and corners are not as coveted - at least not man-to-man corners. And LT is a major need. If they ever want to develop Christian Ponder, they need to protect his blindside. Kalil is a can't-miss prospect. I don't think anyone trades up to #3. I think the Vikes stay put and take the best non-QB in this draft.

ALTERNATE: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU. GM Rick Speilman apparently is seriously considering him so I can't put it past him. 

4. Browns: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama
There's a well-supported way of thinking going around in the NFL that running backs simply aren't as valuable as they used to be 7-10 years ago. But I think that's too general. I think running backs who can't stay on the field all three downs have been de-valued. As a result, complete backs like Richardson who can run inside, outside, pass-block, and pass-catch have actually increased their value. Richardson is franchise player caliber and the Browns need all the help they can get.

ALTERNATE: Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M. If the Browns believe he's franchise-QB worthy, they might just pull the trigger.

5. Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU
The Bucs need a corner and Claiborne is a can't-miss prospect. Some believe that Stephon Gilmore has risen past Claiborne, but I don't see the on-field production to merit that claim. Claiborne is squeaky clean on and off the field. I think there's very little downside to taking him and the Bucs hope to be not drafting in the top-5 for a long time.

ALTERNATE: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama. If he's available, that is.

6. Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State
There's talk of the Rams liking Michael Floyd better than Blackmon. They worked them both out last week but I think they stick with Blackmon. He's a tad overrated but I still think he's an excellent route runner and after-the-catch guy who will provide Bradford with a much-needed threat at receiver.

ALTERNATE: Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame or Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State


7. Jaguars:  Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina
The Jags, more than any other team in the 1st round, wants to move down desperately. But there's nobody here rated high enough for that to happen. The only possibility, I see, is Seattle - if they think Tannehill is worth it. But Seattle also likes its draft picks and moving up 5 spots would certainly cost at least their 3rd rounder in a deep draft. Gilmore is rising up draft boards quickly and Jacksonville needs a corner so I think the pick makes some sense.

ALTERNATE: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina. It's possible that the Gilmore talk is just a smoke-screen for Jacksonville to fill an even bigger need by taking Ingram.

8. Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
The Dolphins tried to woo everyone from Peyton Manning to the stadium janitor to play QB for them, and everyone declined. The franchise is in disarray - but that's a whole another topic. They clearly don't like Matt Moore as their long-term solution. Tannehill is talented but green, so maybe he's the perfect guy here to hold the clipboard for a year behind Moore.

ALTERNATE: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina. I've heard several reports that many teams don't consider Tannehill a top-20 prospect and while there are a lot of connections to Miami (OC Mike Sherman coached Tannehill at Texas A&M), I would be surprised if the Dolphins decided otherwise and picked the best pass-rusher in the draft.

9. Panthers: Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State
Believe it or not, Cox might be gone by the time pick #9 rolls around. But if he's there, I expect the Panthers to take him and never look back. They need someone who can push the pocket up the middle and Cox is the best in an otherwise weak defensive tackle class.

ALTERNATE: Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina. If Cox is gone, then chances are Gilmore is available and the Panthers need a corner almost as badly as they need a defensive tackle.

10. Bills: Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame
GM Buddy Nix usually telegraphs his picks in, yet there's talk that the Bills could go either WR, CB, or LT in the 1st this year. With the top 2 corners already gone, and no LT worth the 10th pick, I think they will stay put and pick the highest rated WR on their board who is a true outside threat to complement Stevie Johnson.

ALTERNATE: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa or Mark Barron, SS Alabama.

11. Chiefs: David DeCastro, OG Stanford
This is the best player available at this point and the Chiefs need help on their interior O-line. 11 might be considered too high for a guard, but not under the new rookie wage scale and especially outside the top 10 picks.

ALTERNATE: Dontari Poe, NT Memphis. I don't think he's worth the 11th pick as his tape his mostly mediocre but its possible that the Chiefs fall in love with his combine tape - I doubt it though.

12. Seahawks: Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College
The hawks need an inside linebacker after they lost Hawthorne and Kuechly is the best one in this draft. He can shed blocks, tackle, cover sideline to sideline and he's a 3-down linebacker. Like running backs, I think the 2-down linebackers are losing value, while those who can stay on the field all 3 downs are gaining it.

ALTERNATE: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina.

13. Cardinals: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa
Even though the Cards resigned Levi Brown, he's better suited for right tackle as he was atrocious on the blind side. Reiff is a very good prospect who's being pushed down the boards somewhat due to his lack of ideal arm length. The Cardinals won't pass on him if he make it this far.

ALTERNATE: Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College.

14. Cowboys:  Mark Barron, SS Alabama
Jerry Jones loves those SEC players and they need a commanding presence in the secondary - Barron certainly fits that bill. I wouldn't be surprised if the boys move up to get him.

ALTERNATE: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama.


15. Eagles: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina
He's atop a deep class of pass rushers that is lacking superstars. The Eagles always like to add pass-rushers and Ingram at 15 is a steal. 


ALTERNATE: Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina.


16. Jets: Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford
He's not as strong as you'd like him to be, but he's got length and production. Although the Jets need a right tackle pretty bad, this pick is a little out of left field. I just think it makes too much sense. They need to add to their pass rush as well but I think you can get one later in this draft.

ALTERNATE: Quinton Coples, North Carolina.


17. Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama
Corner is a need for the Bengals and their threshold for off-the-field transgressions seem to be higher than other teams. Kirtpatrick is an excellent zone defender and is decent man-to-man. I think he's a great fit for the Bengals and he'll fill in for the injured star Leon Hall.

ALTERNATE: Courtney Upshaw, LB Alabama.

18. Chargers: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE Illinois
Pass-rushers are always coveted, especially when you'll be facing Peyton Manning twice a year. I think Mercilus is overrated; I think he's a straight-line guy who has great burst off the line but once he's moved off his course he doesn't have the recovery skills or the counter moves to be a factor. He reminds me a little bit of Aaron Maybin, and those of you who're wondering who that is - that's my point.

ALTERNATE: Andre Branch, OLB/DE Clemson.


19. Bears: Cordy Glenn, OT Georgia
The Bears have been playing with patchwork offensive line for too long. They were aggressive this off-season in reuniting Brandon Marshall with Cutler, now they need to give them time to connect on the field. Glenn is an athletic but raw prospect who has many scouts intrigued due to his massive size and light feet.

ALTERNATE: Kendall Wright, WR Baylor.


20. Titans: Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina
The Titans missed out on Mario Williams because they were too busy with the Peyton Manning sweepstakes. They need help all over the defense but for them it has always started with the d-line. If it wasn't for questions about his motor, Coples would be a top 7 draft pick. I think this is about the range where a team should take a shot on him.

ALTERNATE: Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse.

21. Bengals: Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse
Pass-rushers are always at a premium and Jones is moving up the big board fast - and rightfully so. I think he's every bit as good as Coples, maybe not as many flash plays but a lot more consistent.

ALTERNATE: Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE Alabama


22. Browns: Shea McClellin, OLB/DE Boise State
McClellin is a lesser-known but very good pass rushing prospect who may mock drafters had been forgetting about. But recently, there's been a lot of buzz around him and it seems the "experts" are catching on to the rest of the league. The Browns need as many impact players as possible, and at this juncture, he's the highest rated.

ALTERNATE: Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma State.


23. Lions: Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama
There's been some reports in the last month or so that the Lions front office won't hold marijuana use against prospective draft picks and so Jenkins may be a good guess here. On talent alone, he would've been a top-10 maybe even a top-5 pick. But he has to stay on the field to matter.

ALTERNATE: Cordy Glenn, OT Georgia.

24: Steelers: Dontari Poe, NT Memphis
The best true NT prospect on the big board is miraculously available and the Steelers snatch him up as soon as the Lions make their pick.

ALTERNATE: Dont'a Hightower, ILB Alabama.


25: Broncos: Michael Brockers, DT LSU
Brockers was being mocked at the 10-15 range before the combine so he's taken a little fall but he just doesn't have enough game tape to back up a higher pick. He's got great potential, but as we all know that just means he hasn't done anything. The Broncos take a gamble on him here because if he pans out he could be a top 5 interior pass rusher.

ALTERNATE: Brock Osweiler, QB ASU.

26: Texans: Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE Alabama
A few months ago Upshaw was commonly referred to as the top pass rusher along with Coples and Ingram. So what happened? Teams watched his tape and saw a run defender more than a pass rusher. He got most of his sacks on hustle plays, and while that can is not a negative, I just don't see the burst or moves I want to see out of a pass-rusher. He's got a great bull rush and he's extremely strong at the point of attack but he's not going to be racking up double-digit sacks at the next level.

ALTERNATE: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE Illinois.

27: Patriots: Harrison Smith, SS Notre Dame
The Pats need pass-rush help as well, but most of the top guys are gone and there's still plenty of depth left at the position so the Hoodie gets some secondary help.

ALTERNATE: Nick Perry, OLB/DE USC.

28:  Packers: Nick Perry, OLB/DE USC
The Packers have been pretty vocal about adding pass-rushers in this draft and picking this late they might not find a starter in round 2 so they almost have to take one here. Perry had solid production but he really stood out at the combine. I think he's a natural pass rusher who has the ability to be a constant threat behind that D-line.

ALTERNATE: Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State

29: Ravens: Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech
The Ravens want to add a vertical threat to their offense and Anquan Boldin just isn't cutting it. Torrey Smith is more of a speedster. Hill is a very intriguing prospect who only had 28 catches this past year but has great measurables and lit up the Underwear Olympics.

ALTERNATE: Peter Konz, C/G Wisconsin.


30: 49ers: Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin
The Niners did a good job this off-season in staying alive in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes but still adding weapons elsewhere and eventually re-signing Alex Smith. Zeitler is an excellent guard and the Niners could use an upgrade so this is a very good fit.

ALTERNATE: Coby Fleener, TE Stanford.

31: Patriots: Andre Branch, DE/OLB Clemson
The Pats finally get in on the pass-rush frenzy. Branch is a bit of a one-year wonder but I think he can come in and be a pass-rush specialist which is where I would expect Belichick to use him if this is the pick.

ALTERNATE: Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan State.


32: Giants: Doug Martin, RB Boise State
The World Champs are in a great position to address their depth with no particular glaring needs. With Jacobs gone and Bradshaw iffy for the start of the season, Martin makes a lot of sense here. He's a complete back and I think you can make the argument here for LaMichael James but he's not as much of an inside runner as Martin.

ALTERNATE: David Wilson, RB Virginia Tech.

2 comments:

  1. RE: Titans selection, I wouldn't mind them taking Coples from North Carolina but I don't think the will when they have Morgan and Wimbley. I see the Titans taking Poe the NT from Memphis to anchor the interior of the D-Line. The Titans like big run stoppers, remember Haynesworth?

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    1. That's a good point but I don't think the Titans are averse to stocking up on pass rushers. Coples, when on his game, is the top pass rusher in this draft. It's his motor and his drive that scouts question but all it takes is one team to fall in love with him. I know his stock has been slipping recently but I think a team like the Titans would take a chance on him vs. the unproven workout wonder in Poe.

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