1. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Overrated. I think he's a mid-round pick that is the beneficiary of a deep WR class but no premier talent.
2. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - I wouldn't take him with a top-20 pick unless I am ready to sit him for at least one full season. He's got ability, but he's very very green and a team like Miami moving up to #3 to pick him or Cleveland at 4 might be a recipe for disaster since likely he'll end up starting right away. You don't pick a QB in the top 5 to sit behind Colt McCoy or Matt Moore for a year.
3. Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - He can play LT in the NFL. Well, let's put it this way, his lack of ideal arm length will not affect his ability to play LT in the NFL. He's got excellent footwork, he's physical at the point of attack, and he rarely takes a bad angle. Plenty of premier left tackles in the NFL have less than ideal arm length - Joe Thomas from the Browns comes to mind.
4. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford - On talent alone he's a top 10 pick but he plays on the interior O-line and it simply isn't a premier position that teams are going to pick in the top 10. Someone picking #11-20 is going to get a very good guard for the next 5 years.
5. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - I wouldn't be surprised if the receiver needy Rams pass on Blackmon and take him instead. He's got much better traits for an outside receiver whereas Blackmon, I think, is more of a between the hash-marks type receiver.
6. Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State University - A couple of months ago he was projected to go in the 1st round. Now he might not get drafted at all, and I think he's not worth more than a late-round pick. He's undisciplined on and off the field and has T.O. written all over him (without the talent). While he makes some big plays from time to time, his tackling technique overall is poor. Having bad technique is one thing, being uncoachable with bad technique makes you non-draftable (yes neither of those are actual words).
7. Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina - Another player who is going to take a tumble on draft day, although not nearly as much as Burfict. He's been projected to go in the top-10 but once teams watch his inconsistent play he'll move down to the mid-to-late teens.
8. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - NFL fans, meet the next DeSean Jackson (without the bad attitude). He's an excellent route runner, a superior deep threat with top speed. His bad 40 time at the combine will push him down the draft board (although it's ridiculous to me) and some team will get a great steal in the late 1st round.
9. Shea McClellin, LB/DE, Boise State - He might win the award for the most unknown player to get drafted in the 1st round.
10. Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina - I wouldn't touch him with a 10-ft pole on draft weekend. Over-rated, undisciplined, and has a huge weight issue. Not what I want in any of my players, let alone a wide receiver where, you know, being 20 lbs overweight isn't going to give him any more speed.
11. Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State - Intriguing. That's the best I can say about him at this point because while he's 6'7", and has a pretty strong arm, and is deceptively mobile, he is certainly not NFL ready and played in an offense where his primary receiver were running-backs. I would draft him in the 2nd/3rd round and have him holding a clipboard for at least 2 years - he could end up being an Aaron Rodgers.
12. Marvin Jones, WR, California - He's not the biggest, the fastest, nor can he jump the highest but he just knows how to play the position. I think he's a solid WR across the board and can play outside or in the slot. He runs great routes and shows great body control and hands. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the most productive rookie in this class. I told you the WR class was deep.
13. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - His play on the field and his behavior off the field remind me of Pacman Jones. He's the 2nd best pure man cover corner in this year's class. The talent is unquestionable. But will he stay on the field? He's got quite a rap sheet (misdemeanor from bar fight in 2009, arrested for marijuana possession in 2011 in January and then again in April) which cost him a spot at University of Florida. Oh and he already has four children - this is not a red flag on its own. But when you couple his history of arrests and drug-abuse, some of them after he was already kicked out of Florida, he might be off some teams' draft boards completely.
That's all for now. Happy Friday the 13th everyone!
2. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - I wouldn't take him with a top-20 pick unless I am ready to sit him for at least one full season. He's got ability, but he's very very green and a team like Miami moving up to #3 to pick him or Cleveland at 4 might be a recipe for disaster since likely he'll end up starting right away. You don't pick a QB in the top 5 to sit behind Colt McCoy or Matt Moore for a year.
3. Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - He can play LT in the NFL. Well, let's put it this way, his lack of ideal arm length will not affect his ability to play LT in the NFL. He's got excellent footwork, he's physical at the point of attack, and he rarely takes a bad angle. Plenty of premier left tackles in the NFL have less than ideal arm length - Joe Thomas from the Browns comes to mind.
4. David DeCastro, OG, Stanford - On talent alone he's a top 10 pick but he plays on the interior O-line and it simply isn't a premier position that teams are going to pick in the top 10. Someone picking #11-20 is going to get a very good guard for the next 5 years.
5. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - I wouldn't be surprised if the receiver needy Rams pass on Blackmon and take him instead. He's got much better traits for an outside receiver whereas Blackmon, I think, is more of a between the hash-marks type receiver.
6. Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State University - A couple of months ago he was projected to go in the 1st round. Now he might not get drafted at all, and I think he's not worth more than a late-round pick. He's undisciplined on and off the field and has T.O. written all over him (without the talent). While he makes some big plays from time to time, his tackling technique overall is poor. Having bad technique is one thing, being uncoachable with bad technique makes you non-draftable (yes neither of those are actual words).
7. Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina - Another player who is going to take a tumble on draft day, although not nearly as much as Burfict. He's been projected to go in the top-10 but once teams watch his inconsistent play he'll move down to the mid-to-late teens.
8. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - NFL fans, meet the next DeSean Jackson (without the bad attitude). He's an excellent route runner, a superior deep threat with top speed. His bad 40 time at the combine will push him down the draft board (although it's ridiculous to me) and some team will get a great steal in the late 1st round.
9. Shea McClellin, LB/DE, Boise State - He might win the award for the most unknown player to get drafted in the 1st round.
10. Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina - I wouldn't touch him with a 10-ft pole on draft weekend. Over-rated, undisciplined, and has a huge weight issue. Not what I want in any of my players, let alone a wide receiver where, you know, being 20 lbs overweight isn't going to give him any more speed.
11. Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State - Intriguing. That's the best I can say about him at this point because while he's 6'7", and has a pretty strong arm, and is deceptively mobile, he is certainly not NFL ready and played in an offense where his primary receiver were running-backs. I would draft him in the 2nd/3rd round and have him holding a clipboard for at least 2 years - he could end up being an Aaron Rodgers.
12. Marvin Jones, WR, California - He's not the biggest, the fastest, nor can he jump the highest but he just knows how to play the position. I think he's a solid WR across the board and can play outside or in the slot. He runs great routes and shows great body control and hands. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the most productive rookie in this class. I told you the WR class was deep.
13. Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - His play on the field and his behavior off the field remind me of Pacman Jones. He's the 2nd best pure man cover corner in this year's class. The talent is unquestionable. But will he stay on the field? He's got quite a rap sheet (misdemeanor from bar fight in 2009, arrested for marijuana possession in 2011 in January and then again in April) which cost him a spot at University of Florida. Oh and he already has four children - this is not a red flag on its own. But when you couple his history of arrests and drug-abuse, some of them after he was already kicked out of Florida, he might be off some teams' draft boards completely.
That's all for now. Happy Friday the 13th everyone!
Agree with most of your points. However, everything I've read/heard/seen, heck, even smelled about Blackmon says he's worth all the hype. I'd like some more analysis as to why you think the way you do about him.
ReplyDeleteRE Janoris Jenkins: let's also bear in mind that he's had all of these infractions while being a father. Clearly his priorities are out of whack. It's one thing if you're a stupid college kid and you smoke some weed and throw a drunken punch; but, when you're responsible for numerous children and behaving like a jerk, clearly there are some character flaws. He better hope he goes in the first round because alimony seems to be in his future...
RE Blackmon: Maybe I was a little harsh in calling him "overrated." But I do think, as a prospect, he's not the Calvin Johnson type player who's worthy of a top 5 pick. I don't think he's a burner, and I think most of his game is yards after catch (YAC). That's not a bad thing. It's just that when you pick a WR in the top 5, you want him to be the guy that can out-run and out-leap almost any corner in the league - as in be a legitimate threat playing outside. I think Blackmon is like a faster, more agile Stevie Johnson. He's more of a possession receiver who can make some moves in the open field after the catch. I don't see him out leaping too many corners in the NFL which might restrict the number and types of routes he runs - therefore he's not worth a top-5 pick.
DeleteRE Janoris Jenkins: Good point. He's, reportedly, been very forthcoming about his transgressions with NFL teams so we'll see which team decides to look past his red flags. But the fact that he's clearly not responsible enough to be a father, and then go out and get pinched for smoking weed or getting in a bar fight definitely make it worse.
Very valid points on all players you listed.
ReplyDeleteRE: Tannehill I think the Dolphins end up taking him at pick # 8, the only reason is the are in panick mode meaning they feel they need a QB. I personally don't think he is worthy of a 1st round pick yet alone pick # 8. He is a project that will need to sit at least a year or two before he is ready. To me that is wasting a pick if the guy you select that high is not going to be a starter.
RE: Riley Reiff I think the team that selects him will have the starting LT for the next 10 years. I watch alot of college football and every time I saw him play he was dominant. He has all the tools to anchor the O-line and protect the blind side of the QB. He is a top 10 pick for sure.
RE: Blackmon vs Floyd I've seen them both play many games on TV and both should be the top 2 WR taken in the draft.I don't see St Louis going wrong with either player and in the end I think Blackmon ends up being the pick for St Louis@ #6. Floyd wont make it past # 16 with the Jets.