TNF preview/prediction

Bucaneers - Vikings:

The Bucs and Vikings are interesting teams. Both are young, although the Vikes probably have more veteran leadership (but the younger quarterback). This is a tough game to pick because this is a case of "the immovable object moves the unstoppable force" kind of thing. The Bucs' best offensive strength, week 7 explosion notwithstanding, is running the football and that is the Vikings' defensive strength. On the other side, the Vikes are very good and dependent on running the football and the Bucs are also very good at stopping the run. The Bucs have been force feeding the ball to Vincent Jackson and the Vikings have been shutting down opposing #1 wide receivers. Something's gotta give and with the rules in today's NFL, I'm giving the edge to offense.

I think Adrian Peterson will keep the running attack successful enough that the Bucs can't get away with playing two-deep coverage against Percy Harvin and co.  Because this is a Thursday night game, I'm expecting another relatively low scoring affair although each team has the offensive players to put some points on the board. I think the Vikings will play a slightly conservative style of offense in the beginning and try to use the run to set up the pass. I think the Bucs will try to sprinkle in runs but I see more of a short passing game in order, especially with Doug Martin.

Vikings 23 - Buccaneers 18

Week 7 NFL Nuggets

Seahawks 6 - 49ers 13:

- The Seahawks came into this game with a very sound gameplan, but great coaches make the right in-game adjustments and that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did. The hawks took away Alex Smith's primary weapon in the passing game - Vernon Davis. They double and triple teamed him the entire game, chipping him with a linebacker and then having a defensive back pick him up while the linebacker plays underneath. But the 49ers just said, "hey that's fine, you want to double cover Davis and leave Gore alone underneath, we'll take that all day." This was the key in-game adjustment that won the 49ers this game.

- Also, Alex Smith is a fine quarterback when your team is in the lead and you're playing to protect it. But asking him to come from behind and put up points in a hurry is going to be disaster. This might be what ends up deciding how far they go in the playoffs this year with teams like the Falcons who put up points in bunches.

Titans 35 - Bills 34:

- Where do I begin with this game? I'm going to use this space as a rant session so I apologize in advance. If you wish to avoid this, please feel free to scroll past this game.

Let's just go right down the list of issues that this Bills team has going into their bye week.

1. Lack of focus/consistency on defense: With this talented defensive line, there is no reason any running back should have 190+ yards rushing on them, especially with a mediocre talent at quarterback. The Bills show good gap control SOME of the time, and I thought their best game thus far against the run was against the Browns where they held Trent Richardson to 2.3 YPC. That was their most complete game in the run defense department. Their problem is not talent, it's lack of focus. Plain and simple. They do not play with the same urgency and intensity on every play and frankly this is the main reason this team is not 5-2.

2. Bad calls at crucial times: There's plenty of blame to go around the past couple of weeks, even with the narrow victory against Arizona. But one of the main things I have a problem with is the very weird play calling I've noticed from Chan Gailey. In back to back weeks now, I've seen Gailey call a pass late in the game with the lead.

- Against Arizona, it was a Brad Smith pass from the Wildcat formation. I love the fact that he finally called a pass from the Wildcat because I don't think they have been exploiting that part of the game, but in that situation to ask a guy who hasn't thrown a pass in a regular game in a loooong time going against Patrick Peterson is just terrible decision making. The best result would be a touchdown, but the worst result is a turnover giving the other team the chance to go down and tie or win the game - and that's exactly what happened. Jairus Byrd bailed them out with a pick in OT to set them up for the winning field goal.

- Against Tennessee, this past week, on a 3rd down being up 6 points at home, Gailey calls for a pass play despite the Bills shredding Tennessee on the ground. Fitzpatrick's foolish throw aside, that pass better be a high percentage throw at that point in the game (as in essentially a long handoff). That play, of course, ends up in an interception which gives Tennessee the opportunity to score the go ahead touchdown. Chan Gailey - C'mon Man!  

3. Terrible decision-making by Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzy does a lot of smart things on the football field. He puts that offense in a position to succeed with his pre-snap calls a lot more than he doesn't. I'll give him credit there. But for a guy who's supposed to be this "cerebral"quarterback with an ivy league education, he makes some DUMB decisions/throws at crucial points in the game.

Let's go back to the late game INT against the Titans - he says he was trying to hit Donald Jones on the deep comeback because he saw the corner trying to "squat" on the underneath route by Stevie Johnson. But where was the necessity for that throw?! Your head coach puts the ball in your hands to close out the game and you take a huge risk?! instead of just throwing the ball to a high percentage area of the field and giving the receiver a chance to get a first down? He makes a throw that a quarterback should make when they're down 6 points, not up 6 points.


Once the Titans go up and the Bills get another chance to get into field goal range, he throws short and safe passes! Are you kidding me?! A 6-7 yard pass to Stevie Johnson over the middle and then a 1 yard pass to Scott Chandler. Then an incompletion. And then on 4th down and 2 to go, he tries hitting Stevie for 10-12 yards down the sideline! Of all plays, why take that low percentage high risk pass on 4th and 2? There were at least 2 receivers that I counted that were open in the middle of the field and I know things get hectic and its a high pressure situation but Fitzy didn't even look at them. It's almost as if he had his mind made up pre-snap that he was going to Stevie. Did the Bills need yards at that point in the game? Yes, absolutely - especially given the short passes on first and second down. But did the Bills need a first down more than anything to keep them alive? YES! I know Fitzpatrick does not have the arm to be a franchise quarterback, but now he's proving that he cannot avoid making the wrong decisions at the wrong times in the game - an area of supposed strength of his game. Unless there's a drastic turnaround, and I'm not holding my breath, the Bills will be looking for a starting quarterback in next April's draft.

 Ravens 13 - Texans 43:

- Remember when Joe Flacco called himself elite? Yeah, that was dumb. He has the physical tools to be an elite quarterback - I don't doubt that. But he's been having a case of the "Fitzpatricks" lately. Dumb decisions, especially when he feels the pressure to put the team on his back. I get the feeling Flacco wants to be the hero more so than getting out of a hostile environment with a win. Guys like Brady, Brees, and the Manning brothers are satisfied only with a win.

- The Ravens run defense looked okay for the most part. I didn't think Ray Lewis would be missed that much on that front and I don't think he was (at first glance). Also, they got a boost from Terrell Suggs who, quite honestly, is a medical miracle. Nobody in their right mind expected Suggs to be active, let alone productive. He might be the boost, long term, that pulls this defense out of the basement.

Browns 13 - Colts 17:

- Heck of a game by Brandon Weeden. Josh Gordon - you gotta catch that pass! I know the sun got into your eyes, or so you say, but you gotta hang on to that. This team is young but they have a lot of talent on there. They're a few pieces away from having the talent to compete with any team in the league, but they still have a long way to go mentally.


I pretty much stopped watching football for the rest of the day after the Bills loss. I just couldn't bear it. Plus my choices were either the Raiders - Jaguars or a game in which I hate both teams: Patriots - Jets. I was a little happy to see the Jets lose but I couldn't give you anything in either of these games since I watched almost none of it.

Lions 7 - Bears 13:

- Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop the Detroit Lions. Put your best corner on Calvin Johnson and play 2-deep safeties over the top. The Lions don't really have a running game except for occasional success and until they find that or a second wide receiver who will command more attention, teams will be content with stacking just six or seven defenders in the box. Mikel LeShoure looked pretty good on some runs last night but he is not doing it consistently enough to command any respect and he keeps putting the ball on the ground. I don't really believe in any curses, but man that Madden curse sure seems to be ringing true for Calvin Johnson this year. In fact, every year since its inception, at least one player on the Madden cover has been cursed. I say "at least one player" because the only player (as far as I know) that has "defeated" the dreaded curse has been Larry Fitzgerald and that year he was on the cover with Troy Polamalu who had an injury-filled dreadful season.

- Stafford looked ordinary and a lot of that was the Bears defense but he's been looking underwhelming for the past 3-4 weeks now. His tendency to latch on to Calvin Johnson is troubling, considering he's supposed to be a veteran. Now that Nate Burleson is out for the season, either Titus Young or Ryan Broyles will have to step up or this Lions team will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. 

NFL - Week 7 Picks and Predictions

Already picked: 49ers 17 - Seahawks 13 (Result: 49ers 13 - Seahawks 6)

Cardinals 17 - Vikings 28:

I've talked in the past about how the Cardinals 4-2 record is a mirage. The Vikings have a similar perception as well but I do think they're more real than the Cardinals who will be without Kevin Kolb and starting John Skelton - not that it really matters which one of those two they start in this game. The Vikings are excellent against the run and I expect the Cardinals underwhelming rushing attack and putrid offensive line to be over-matched. When the Cards are forced to abandon the run, I just don't see myself trusting John Skelton much. 

On the other hand, the Vikings actually have a very good running game match-up against a soft-in-the-middle Cardinals defense. This will only help Christian Ponder in the passing game, though the going will be tougher there against Patrick Peterson. I think the Vikes put this game away into the 3rd quarter and run the clock out in the 4th. 

Cowboys 31 - Panthers 24:

It's make or break time for the Cowboys and they'll be without their most reliable running weapon against a terrible run defense. In this juicy match up against the leaky Panthers defense, I expect even Felix Jones and Philip Tanner to produce enough ground success to keep the safeties honest. Say what you want about Romo, he's given this team a chance to win in most of their games. Dez Bryant showed some great signs last week but then, almost on cue, he had a mental lapse and dropped what would've been a game-tying two point conversion. Physically, he has the skills to be the best in the NFL. Mentally, he's a work in progress but the improvement in his last two games is noticeable. In the end, I think the Cowboys just have too many weapons for this weak Panther defense to handle. 

You know who else it's "make or break" time for? Cam Newton. He seems to have taken a step back from his sensational rookie season. He's locking on to his first receiver too much - a trend I noticed early last year, but one he was able to overcome in the first half of last season based on pure talent alone. He needs to be more decisive in the pocket and he needs to learn how to look off safeties. He's so incredibly talented that I think the tendency is for him to get lazy with the details. Unfortunately for him, everyone in the NFL is really talented and as they say, "the devil's in the details." This talented Cowboys secondary will be a very good test for Newton coming off a bye week where, hopefully, he worked on correcting those mistakes. 

Saints 17 - Buccaneers 27:

The Saints get Jonathan Vilma back but I don't think he'll be enough to help this defense. On offense they will be without Jimmy Graham and the Saints generally don't do as well outdoors as they do in the friendly confines of the Superdome. I expect the going to be tougher than one would expect against a Buccaneers defense that is coming off a bye week. I like teams coming off a bye against a divisional opponent. The Saints have not been able to come with a running game despite their stable of backs and I don't see that changing this week against a great defensive front seven. 

I expect the Buccaneers to come out attacking and taking advantage of the individual match-ups against the Saints. Usually when your team is over-matched on talent on defense, teams will do one of two things - they will either play to limit the damage (coaches like Dick Jauron have employed this philosophy in the past) or they will be very aggressive in order to get to the quarterback and often they might be over-aggressive. I expect the latter approach by the Saints and to counter it, I expect the Bucs to utilize quick throws and screens to Doug Martin and open up the down-field passing game.  


Packers 27 - Rams 13:

If the Rams had a healthy Danny Amendola and one more decent receiving option, this would be a very good game. Unfortunately for them, they don't and I don't expect the Rams to be able to keep up with a Packers offense that has found its groove. The Rams defense is very good but often plays from behind and is on the field too much to have consistent success. The Packers will be without nose tackle BJ Raji and I think Jeff Fisher will do his best to run the ball and keep it out of Rodgers' hands - but he doesn't need much time to score as evidenced by his surgery of the previously vaunted Texans defense. 

Redskins 24 - Giants 27:

The Giants typically don't do well against the NFC West so I was tempted to pick the Redskins here. But the Giants defense finally came alive last week on the west coast and I think they keep the momentum going against the explosive and ever-dangerous RGIII. The Redskins, in my opinion, are playing with fire by allowing RGIII to run so much. They've already had one big scare two weeks ago when he took a big hit and had "a mild concussion," which, I've been told, does not exist. You either have the symptoms of a concussion or you don't. These symptoms may be "mild" but that won't be clear until you've given it a couple of days to work itself out. The Redskins called it a "mild concussion" almost immediately after the game. Anyways, with his frame and the exposure to big hits, the Redskins won't be so lucky next time. 

The Giants might be forced to limit a red hot Ahmad Bradshaw but they have enough weapons in the running game to keep up the success on the ground. Hakeem Nicks finally seems to be turning a corner in his recovery and I expect him to tear up this sub-par Redskins secondary.  The Giants offensive line has not given up a sack in three games so this will be a good match up to watch against a Redskins pass rush that is without Brian Orakpo. 

P.S. - I plan on doing a more in depth post on the development of RGIII v. Andrew Luck midway through the season. Some of my points may surprise you. 

Ravens 27 - Texans 24:

A month ago i would've picked this as a 10-13 ball game but injuries have piled up quickly on both defenses - probably the Ravens more so than the Texans - making this somewhat of a high scoring game. The Texans will surely test this leaky run defense with Arian Foster early and often which might open things up for Owen Daniels in the play-action passing game. Daniels, by the way, seems to be Schaub's #1 target with Andre Johnson being mostly double-covered. 

The Ravens need to get back to force-feeding the football to Ray Rice. Flacco is out of rhythm in the passing game and the best way to get him back on track is to give him some high percentage throws to begin the game. With Clay Matthews out, I expect the Ravens to pick on the Texans linebackers with crossing routes and this will hopefully draw the safeties down and open up the deep ball to Torrey Smith.  I know Flacco struggles on the road but hopefully Terrell Suggs returning to the lineup gives this team enough of a boost to outlast the Texans. 

Titans 27- Bills 31:

This game has the potential to be a shoot out, however its not because either offense is bursting with talent. It's just that both defenses have been downright atrocious against the run and the pass so far. The Bills play an attacking type of run defense where they try to hit the ball carrier before he gets going. However, when players don't maintain gap discipline while maintaining this approach to stopping the run, they can give up big chunks of yardage. And then you add Chris Johnson to the equation who has the potential to take it to the house on any given play and seems to have found his groove after a rough start to the season. Needless to say this could be a boom or bust day for the Bills run defense and the Titans running game. 

The Bills, of course, have their own tandem of backs to run the ball down Tennessee's throat and they're much better at run blocking and the Titans aren't that good at defending the run either. Both pass defenses have suffered as well and the Titans get Kenny Britt at full speed for the first time this year which is why I expect this to be a shoot out.I'm giving the edge to the Bills, who usually play much better at home, coming off a huge "gut-check" victory in Arizona.

Browns 24 - Colts 21:

Coming off a huge emotional win against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, Andrew Luck and the Colts got steam rolled by the Jets?! You know, the Jets of the all-pro running back Shonn Greene and quarterback Mark Sanchez. Right. And the development of young Andrew Luck goes on. The Jets completely blanketed Reggie Wayne and Luck was flustered when he couldn't find his top option. The Browns got Joe Haden back last week and you can bet they will try the same strategy with him. I expect the Colts to lean more on the running game and the secondary weapons (Fleener, Allen, Hilton, Avery etc.) if the Browns employ the same strategy and take away Reggie Wayne.

On the flip side, the Colts will be without Robert Mathis again and all-pro Dwight Freeney will have to take on all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas. Brandon Weeden does his best work in a clean pocket and I expect him to be clean for much of the game. The Browns' young receivers are showing signs of development, particularly Josh Gordon. Now he needs to show that he's not a one-trick pony and run some short and intermediate routes for completions. This will be somewhat of a shootout but I give the edge to the team with the better defense and running game and that team is the Browns.

Jets 20 - Patriots 35 (Lock of the Week):

If the Jets had Revis, Mark Sanchez was passing well, and the Jets defense was back to 2009 form, then they would have a good shot at winning this game. Sadly, for them, none of these things are true and right now I pick the Patriots 10 out of 10 times. The Pats are coming off a huge loss against the Seahawks and are motivated at home. Rex Ryan does his talking in the week leading up to the game, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady do their talking on the field by putting up points in bunches. The Pats got talented tight end Aaron Hernandez back last week but he was being phased into the offense. This week, I expect more snaps for Hernandez and thus more match up problems for the Jets. The Pats have too many weapons and have shown this year that they can even run the ball to earn a victory. 

The Pats defense has been excellent against the run thus far but has some major issues in the back end against the deep ball. I still don't expect Mark Sanchez to have too much success, asides from maybe a play or two. The Jets had majority of their running success last week up the middle and the Pats will have Vince Wilfork waiting for Shonn Greene. Honestly, even if the Jets had Revis, I'd have hard time not picking the Patriots in this situation.

Jaguars 13 - Raiders 24:

The Raiders found their pass rush last week against Matt Ryan and the Falcons and almost pulled off the upset. This week they get to go back home and face an underwhelming Jaguars team. Carson Palmer gets a healthy squad of receivers this week and the Raider running game is still a work in progress. I expect the Raiders to have moderate success against this Jaguars defense that has been equally underwhelming. I just don't think the Jags have the weapons on offense, or a quarterback for that matter, that can take advantage of the holes in the Raiders defense.

Steelers 20 - Bengals 17:

The Steelers cannot be this bad. They've been terrible away from Heinz field this year and they cannot run the ball to save their lives. They've also been hit hard with injuries, especially on the offensive line. With the running backs also banged up, the expectation would be to put the game in Big Ben's hands with the passing game. But I think the Steelers get stubborn about running the ball and plod their way with Jonathan Dwyer, Barron Batch etc. to a hard-hitting, low-scoring, divisional victory away from home.

The Bengals' passing game has been clicking thus far into the season but the same cannot be said about their running game. The signing of BJGE has been a bust so far and the Bengals lost Bernard Scott last week. Third-down specialist Brian Leonard is also out for this game. I expect Big Ben and the Steelers to be able to overcome the offensive line injuries better than the Bengals to overcome the lack of a running game. Coming off an upset at the hands of the Titans, I think the Steelers will be motivated and focused to leave Cincinnati with a victory.

Lions 17 - Bears 28:   

The Bears are coming off a bye, and now get the Lions at home on MNF. This Bears defense is impressive and is hitting on all cylinders..the Lions, meanwhile, have been pretty bad on defense thus far. I don't know what has happened to this defensive line. They have so much talent there but they don't seem to be getting it done and the rest of the back seven has never been that impressive. The Bears have had major offensive line issues but with the bye week, hopefully, they worked on their pass protection woes. Matt Forte has done well against the Lions in his career and I expect that to continue on Monday night. 

Matt Stafford looks ordinary this season. His footwork has been terrible and thus his accuracy has suffered. I realize that the Lions need a receiver across from Calvin Johnson to step up but I think this is more of a Stafford issue than a #2 wide receiver issue. To compound this problem, the Lions do not have a running game. I was surprised when they didn't sign some veteran insurance this off-season behind an inexperienced Mikel LeShoure and a brittle Kevin Smith. I know they had Jahvid Best on the PUP but they would've been foolish to depend on him being active. Anyways, I give Lions credit for pulling off an upset last week against the reeling Eagles but Soldier Field won't be as friendly this week.  

Last Week's Picks: 8-6 

Week 6 NFL Nuggets

Steelers 23 - Titans 26:

- I didn't watch the whole game here but Pittsburgh was really missing their key players on defense and based on some metrics I had read about last week they were soft up the middle. I wasn't sure if Chris Johnson and the Titans would be able to take advantage of it but certainly they were ripe for the picking. Johnson got 91 yards on 19 carries and Hasselbeck played pretty well and distributed the targets pretty evenly.
- The Steelers just had wayy too many injuries at offensive line and running back and couldn't get over them. Big Ben is agile in the pocket but they were down to their last thread on the line.

Cowboys 29 - Ravens 31:

- I'm not a Dez Bryant apologist but it seems like the Cowboys went into this game with a concerted effort to get him going and he responded in a big way. He definitely should've caught that 2-pt conversion, however. Mental mistakes have always been his achilles heel.

- Ravens losing Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb is a huge blow - Webb more so than Lewis as far as on-field play is concerned. Lewis brought amazing leadership to the table but his play, especially against the run, had been slipping so far this season anyways. Webb, on the other hand, was playing pro-bowl ball before the injury - that will be tough to get over given how bad Cary Williams has been. Jimmy Smith will have to step up.

Bengals 24 - Browns 34:

- I had a feeling that the Browns were going to pull this one out despite their atrocious division record. Joe Haden helped this defense out big time and Weeden is developing nice chemistry with Josh Gordon. If Gordon can become a more consistent route runner, it will go a long way in developing Weeden as a passer.

Lions 26 - Eagles 23:

- Vick is too inconsistent a quarterback to hang your hat on as a franchise guy. He's extremely talented, which has always been the allure with him, but when it comes down to it he simply is not the type of player that can consistently put your offense in a position to win. When he does well, he's unstoppable. But there are probably more ugly games than you can stomach and I think the wheels are falling off this wagon quick. I wouldn't be surprised if Nick Foles finishes out the season as their starter.

Colts 9 - Jets 35:

- Wow, where was the Colts offense? And is that the Jets running game that decided to show up to the stadium? Say what you want about Rex Ryan, the man knows how to handle a defense. He dialed up the perfect plays to counter Luck and the Colts and the Jets' offensive explosion was really just their defense putting them in a great position to score. I don't buy that Sanchez, all of a sudden, learned how to become a consistent passer.

Chiefs 10 - Bucs 38:

- I called it! Lock of the week. Brady Quinn is terrible and without at least a mediocre threat at quarterback (such as Matt Cassel) defenses can easily key on Jamal Charles and shut him down. Plus I like teams coming off a bye and the Bucs did not disappoint.

Raiders 20 - Falcons 23:

- I was shocked at how well the Raiders defense played, on the road, against the previously on-fire Falcons offense. This was another team coming off a bye so I guess having the extra week to game plan should've tipped me off. This type of win can go on to define the season and the Falcons are showing early on that they can blow teams out or win the close ones. They should go deep in the playoffs this year.

Bills 19 - Cardinals 16:

- The Bills defense finally woke up in this game and the pass rush took full advantage of the weak Arizona offensive line. Both offenses looked fairly putrid through the air and pretty solid on the ground - Bills' running game looked better. Buffalo must continue to feature the running game because its clear that their best two weapons on offense are Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Plus their run blocking is very good. Asking Fitzpatrick to do anything more than managing the game, right now, is playing with fire.

-  Chan Gailey made some terrible calls towards the end of this game but the defense bailed him out. This was probably as exciting a game you can have with only two touchdowns in it.

- The Cardinals, ironically enough, remind me of the 2011 Bills - as in their 4-1 record coming into this game was a mirage. I see them as an average team with major questions at quarterback and offensive line and a pretty good defense. I wouldn't be surprised if this team ultimately ends up with only 6-7 wins this season.

Patriots 23 - Seahawks 24:

- I didn't watch much of this game at all, but I have to give the Seahawks props for taking on this vaunted New England team and pulling out a last-minute victory.

Packers 42 - Texans 24:

- There's the Packer offense. This game was vintage Aaron Rodgers. He carved up that great Houston defense like a surgeon, and this was without Greg Jennings, Cedric Benson, and a banged up Finley. He's amazing to watch when he's on fire like this (which is most of the time for him).

- I'm afraid that the Houston offense has become so run-dependent that it forgot how to move the ball through the air. Matt Schaub had trouble finding Andre Johnson, and the offense as a whole lacks explosiveness outside the running game which was bottled up this whole game.

Broncos 35 - Chargers 24:

- What an incredible game this was. It was truly a tale of two halves. The Broncos turned the ball over several times in the first half which resulted in 17 points for the Chargers. In the 2nd half, the Chargers were shut down on offense and they turned the ball over several times giving Peyton Manning a chance to pull the Broncos back into this game and put it away.

- There were several bad calls by the officials in this game. The most interesting ones were the false start penalties against Philip Rivers in the first half. They called this a couple times on Rivers for essentially having a good hard count (their explanation was his hand and head movement while trying to get the defense to jump offsides). I have never seen this call before and I understand the rule but I saw nothing that Peyton Manning or any other quarterback doesn't do on a regular basis to try and get the defense to jump offsides. These bad calls actually hurt the Chargers offense more than just the 10 yard penalty because on all of these plays the defense actually did jump off-sides and so that would've been a 5 yard penalty going the other way plus a free play. So that's at least 15 yards and a free play which, arguably, could've resulted in more yards.

- The refs also called a phantom pass interference call on the Broncos offense at one point. Overall a very weird but incredible game.

Thursday Night Football Prediction:

Seahawks 13 - 49ers 17:
I expect this game to be low scoring given the defenses and the fact that it's Thursday night which has generally produced lower scoring games. After such an embarrassing loss at home, I expect the Niners to be angry and ready for this one. On the other side, I think the Seahawks are still on their week 6 high and will not be completely ready for the motivated 49ers. Neither team has the weapons to truly attack the other defense and so I expect a lot of punts and/or turnovers in this game.  

NFL - Week 6 Picks and Predictions

Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.

Already picked: Steelers 27 - Titans 6 (Result: Steelers 23 - Titans 26)

Raiders 17 - Falcons 34:

Even though the Raiders are coming off a bye, they will be traveling across country and playing in an early away game. They've had issues running the football - McFadden does not seem to have adjusted to the zone-blocking scheme (the same scheme he had issues with earlier in his career when he first arrived at Oakland). The Raiders will try their best to get their ground attack going but the Falcon run defense is underrated and plays disciplined. Plus I expect Matt Ryan and co. to use their balanced attack against the over matched Raider defense and go up early, thus forcing the Raiders to abandon the run game by the 2nd half. I can't trust Carson Palmer to be turnover free and I expect the Falcons to win easily at home.

Bengals 18 - Browns 21:

In a minor upset, I'm picking the Browns to win in this one. It's not that the Bengals are not good, it's just that the Browns are actually decent themselves. They are not as bad as their record would indicate, especially their defense which now gets pro-bowl cornerback Joe Haden back from suspension. Haden will be charged with slowing down superstar AJ Green and I expect Andy Dalton to struggle somewhat against this underrated Browns defense.

Rams 17 - Dolphins 20:

Another low scoring affair. The Rams offensive line has been brutal and marred with injuries, and now Danny Amendola, their best offensive weapon not named Steven Jackson, is out for a good portion of the season. This team just cannot catch a break. Both defenses are pretty good and I give the slight edge to Miami's offense despite a banged up Reggie Bush and underwhelming talent at wide receiver. I know Brian Hartline had an amazing game a couple of weeks ago but he's an average NFL talent, not a #1 wide receiver - confirmed by the Dolphins General Manager Jeff Ireland.

Colts 20 - Jets 21:

The Jets played very well on MNF against probably the best team in the NFL. The Colts also had an emotional victory against, arguably, the best team in the NFL coming into the season. So this is an interesting match-up. Andrew Luck is finding his stride as a passer in the NFL and the Jets are still decent on defense even without Revis. These teams match up well against each other so I expect a tight one. Given how hard the Jets fought last week and the emotional victory that the Colts had, I am giving the slight edge to the home team.

Lions 23 - Eagles 28:

The Lions simply have not been able to find success on offense, and their main issue is running the ball. Their offensive line is not opening rushing lanes right now and they have underwhelming talent at running back. They also badly need another wideout to step up across from Megatron. Defenses seem content with doubling C.Johnson and stacking 7 in the box and taking away Pettigrew with their best covering linebacker or safety. Also, Stafford just does not look the same. Even if we put all of that aside, the Eagles have a very good defense and this is a home game for them. As long as Andy Reid rides McCoy, this should be a win for the Eagles. I have my reservations about Vick and the Lions have forced 6 fumbles thus far this year so I could just as easily see this score reversed. But for now, I'm picking the Eagles.

Chiefs 13 - Buccaneers 27 (Lock of the Week):

Brady Quinn finally gets his shot, and I think he will play decent in this game. But personnel wise, the Chiefs do not have the consistent play at certain key positions to take advantage of the Bucs weak secondary. On the flip side, the Chiefs' strongest offensive weapon, Jamal Charles, will be going against the Bucs strongest defensive weapon - their run defense. The Chiefs are pretty decent on defense but if Brady Quinn has a rough, turnover-filled game, they might be stretched too thin and on the field too much to have any success against a mediocre Bucs offense.

Cowboys 23 - Ravens 31:

Even though both pass defenses have held up well so far, I think their respective rankings have been a bit of a mirage based on who they've played so far. Flacco and the Ravens play much better at home and I'm expecting somewhat of a shootout here. The Cowboys have a good chance in this game to come away with a win if they lean on Demarco Murray - unfortunately I don't see that happening. Plus if Flacco finds his rhythm at home, as he has done usually, the Cowboys could be down early and be forced to throw (which Jason Garret loves to do anyways). I like the no-huddle offense but I think the Ravens won't use it as much this week and lean more on Ray Rice running the ball and setting up the play-action pass.

Bills 21 - Cardinals 18:

I know. I can't believe it either. How could I possibly pick the Bills in this game? After the thrashing they took the last two weeks and on the road on the West Coast against a 4-1 team? The Bills stayed in Arizona, after they got whupped by San Fran, for the whole week. They won't have the jet lag or the travel to deal with. They can't possibly do any worse on defense and I think the week away from home and all the negative media coverage they would've gotten in Buffalo will help this team focus on the task at hand. I know, it's a long shot but I just have that sneaky feeling - the same one I had for the Jets against the Texans. Except, the Cardinals, despite their 4-1 record, are nowhere close to the Texans. Their offensive line is atrocious, and Kolb is due to have a couple of bad games. Plus they just lost Ryan Williams for the season leaving below average talent at running back. If there's any week for the Bills defense to stop the run and get that pass rush going, it's this week. The Bills are also traditionally a very bad road team, but my gut says the Bills (and it doesn't do that a lot).

Patriots 31 - Seahawks 21:

I've heard a lot of people this week who are picking the Seahawks to upset the Pats in Seattle. I understand the 12th man element to it. I also see how physical this defense is and I am in awe at the size and speed of this defense as a whole. But, this is Tom Brady we're talking about. As loud as that stadium will be, I expect Brady and Belichick to have this team fully ready for that element of the game. And nothing quiets a crowd down quicker than third down conversions (asides from touchdowns) - and Brady is the best at that. Despite the Patriots becoming a running team now, I don't think they will run the ball much, instead choosing to attack and expose the Seahawks defensive backfield. I expect a lot of quick throws to keep Bruce Irvin and the pass rush at bay. And on defense, I expect some exotic looks and blitzes to force Russell Wilson into a couple of bad throws and turnovers. This one will be close early on but I expect the better team to pull away.

Giants 23 - 49ers 27:

On offense, the Giants will be forced to abandon the run early on and lean on the pass. And while, in the past, that has been a recipe for success for them, this is the 49ers defense we're talking about and at home nonetheless. The niners will have revenge on their minds from last year's NFC championship game and I fully expect them to rise to the occasion.  The Giants have a tough time defending tight ends so I think the Niners would be wise to feature Vernon Davis in the passing game - it just so happens that they like to do that anyways. The whole Giants defense has had issues early in the games and I can see the Niners getting a score or two up on them early on with the Giants playing catch up for the rest of the game (without their best deep threat - Hakeem Nicks) and falling short against the best defense in the NFL.

Vikings 28 - Redskins 17:

RGIII is questionable for this game although all the practice reports seem optimistic that he will play. I still think the Vikings defense will be too much for this Redskins offense. The Skins will try their best to run the ball but I'm giving the edge to the Viking defense. The Redskins defense is horrendous against the pass and they're actually decent against the run but we're talking about Adrian Peterson here - he'll get his.

Packers 24 - Texans 27:

The Packers have been hit with injuries probably as hard as anyone in the NFL, and they've been victims of bad luck thus far. They got robbed by the refs against the Seahawks, and then last week they went against a very emotionally motivated Colts team on the road. Now they get to play against probably one of the top two or three teams in the NFL. The Jets game was a wake up call for the Texans and they'll be ready for this one - with or without Brian Cushing. The Packers offense still does not seem in sync and they'll likely be without Greg Jennings, Cedric Benson and Jermichael Finley.

Broncos 24 - Chargers 28:

The Broncos are 0-2 away from Denver and they get a motivated Chargers team in a divisional match up. Both defenses have been underwhelming thus far, but the Charger defense has been pretty good against the run. I think Peyton has trouble away from home right now and unless he shows otherwise I'm picking the Chargers. This will be a very close game and can really go either way. I'm picking Chargers based purely on a gut feeling.

Last Week's Picks: 10-3 

NFL - Week 5 Random Thoughts

Rams 17 - Cardinals 3:

As I predicted, the Arizona offensive line was over-matched by the Rams underrated defensive line, and the Cardinals showed almost nothing on offense. Fitzgerald was blanketed for the most part by Finnegan. I had major doubts about their 4-0 record and it showed in their performance last Thursday night. I still think Arizona is a solid team when they manage to keep Kolb upright and he plays solid. The Rams lost Amendola for the season and this team is seriously devoid on wide receiver talent that can contribute today. They seem to have an endless number of young unproven but talented wide receivers which doesn't bode well for their offense in the short term. One of them will have to step up and Chris Givens gets the first shot. He's more of a one-trick pony (speed, and thus deep routes), so I don't like his chances as much as talented but raw rookie Brian Quick. Someone will have to step up for this team to have a shot at a winning record. Steven Jackson, by the way, actually looked pretty good on some of his runs. He's in the middle of a slow break-up with St. Louis who confirmed last week that they will not be exercising his option for 2013. If he wants to latch on elsewhere, he will have 11 games to show he can still be a lead dog.

Eagles 14 - Steelers 16:

Vick is not a pocket passer, plain and simple. The Eagles are trying to force a round peg into a square hole with him. He had one good year as a passer but it doesn't look like he'll be able to replicate it. I think it is also giving him problems with decision-making which is leading to late decisions and thus turnovers. The Eagles defense is very good across the board. Their front seven can stop the run, rush the passer, and their back end has the talent to hang with any offense in the league. The problem is, as long as Vick keeps turning the ball over, this defense will be on the field way longer than it should be and while, thus far, they have been able to limit the damage, the floodgates are about to burst. There's only so much a defense can do when it is on the field for as long as the Eagles are.

The Steelers got Mendenhall back who provided a much-needed boost to their running game. I have to admit he looked pretty good, especially coming off his injury. I did not expect that from him this soon. He might even look better than he did pre-injury; he just seemed quicker and showed more burst than I am used to seeing from him. The true test for him, now, will be how he withstands the grind of the season.

Colts 30 - Packers 27:

I didn't catch much of this game but kudos to the Colts for handling such an emotional week and overcoming a Packers team that really needed this win. I'm not sure what the issue is with the Packers. Certainly injuries have some part in it, and they only added to that list now with Benson and Finley out (although the latter should be back sooner). But this team has quality depth and I expected them to be able to overcome the injuries. I think the bigger issue is the sub-par play from their offensive line. With no time and new weapons, Rodgers is having a tough time getting in rhythm.

Browns 27 - Giants 41:

The Giants defense looked flat early in this game and they had me nervous after they allowed Cleveland to score two early touchdowns. But they settled down and Ahmad Bradshaw overcame his early fumble and ripped off over 200 yards on the ground. The Giants have had injuries at receiver and running back as well but their offensive line is in much better shape and Eli Manning is spreading the ball around as good as anyone in the league right now. This offense will be hard to stop.

The Browns showed some signs of life on offense and rookie Josh Gordon seems to have provided them with a deep threat that will discourage that 8th man in the box which, of course, will only help Trent Richardson and the running game.

Falcons 24 - Redskins 17:

The biggest news from this game, asides from the 5-0 Falcons, was the vicious hit that RGIII took. I watched a lot of this game and I've been saying it for weeks now that the Redskins cannot keep exposing Griffin to this type of punishment. He's not built to handle that type of beating on a weekly basis and he is too talented to be lost for a games during the season. He had some concussion symptoms and I will be surprised if he plays this week. Hopefully he will learn to look at the bigger picture and make better decisions.

By the way, Alfred Morris looked very good in this game. The Falcons aren't the best run defense but they rarely give up big plays and they are technically sound on defense. I thought Morris was a pedestrian talent who was part lucky with the schedule and part a product of the Mike Shanahan system. While those things may still be somewhat true, he's certainly talented and he showed it in this game. He was constantly getting yards after contact and he showed very good vision in the zone-blocking scheme that Washington applies. However, I was really impressed by how hard he ran even in the fourth quarter. He's the real deal.

Ravens 9 - Chiefs 6:

The little that I did watch of this game was painful. Both offenses were putrid, except for Jamal Charles. Flacco and that no-huddle offense is off-track right now. They need to make some changes before next week to avoid any further digression. I've said before that the biggest enemy of the no-huddle offense is the no-huddle offense itself. It's a delicate balance that the play-caller has to keep in mind. Most teams do not have the personnel to run the no-huddle all the time. Heck there have only been a handful of teams in the history of the NFL that successfully ran a no-huddle for the majority of their offensive plays. The Bengals and the Bills in the 90's come to mind.

Broncos 21 - Patriots 31:

The Bronco defense got carved up early in this one. Brady was having his way through the air but the bigger story is that the Patriots are officially a running team now. Belichick just amazes me every year. He is truly the class of the NFL and a trendsetter as a tactician and play-caller. The Pats showed the NFL that their performance on the ground against the putrid Bills in week 4 was no fluke by shredding an NFL-caliber defense for 223 yards rushing.

For the Broncos, they've been victims of a very tough schedule so far and things will get easier for them. McGahee is a talented running back with mediocre vision and someone who's always had ball security issues. His fumble late in the game pretty much sealed Denver's fate.

Bills 3 - 49ers 45:

Wow, where do I begin? I had to turn away from this game by the end of the 3rd quarter, and it was never even close. The Bills defense has some serious issues all over, and losing Mark Anderson for an indefinite amount of time will not help their chances. So far, the Bills defensive line remake has been a major bust. I was expecting the Bills to lose but I thought they would at least show some signs of life. Technically, I guess, they did hang in there in the first half but that was more a function of the 49ers trying very hard to give the game away and the Bills respectfully declining. This team has some major soul searching to do after back to back record-breaking putrid weeks. Just when you think they have hit rock bottom, they show us there's more room below.

On offense, Fitzpatrick was horrendous on some of his throws. One particular throw comes to mind - A 25+ yard pass to Donald Jones down the right sideline into the end-zone. The ball so incredibly under thrown that the corner covering Jones almost couldn't make it back in time to intercept it. Fitzpatrick simply does not have the arm to keep defenses honest and unless they can get him in rhythm early and keep there for 4 quarters, this offense will be very hot and cold. It also didn't help that they were going against, arguably, the league's best defense.

As mentioned above, the 49ers started this game off in a very uncharacteristically sloppy way. They were penalized a lot, especially on critical 3rd downs. But, it didn't matter as the Bills would obediently move out of their way and surrender the first down anyways. The Niners defense steals all of the attention but the offense is actually very good. The offensive line is one of the best in the league and they opened up huge lanes for the running backs. Of course, the next logical thing was to use the play action and catch the Bills flat footed and throw it over their heads to Vernon Davis. This was a vicious cycle throughout the game - Apply, Rinse, Repeat.

Chargers 24 - Saints 31:

A few things stood out to me in this game. First, Drew Brees pound for pound may be the best player in this league. Every time I watch him I am impressed by how accurate he is despite him throwing on his tippy toes most of the time. He is an incredible story and what a great night for him to beat Unitas' record and get the Saints their first win. Colston had a great game and it was in typical Colston fashion - there won't be more than five yards between him and the corner but he makes the tough catches in tight spaces. It's too bad their defense is abysmal and their running game is nonexistent.

The Chargers finally came to their senses and gave their best offensive player the ball. Ryan Mathews ran like a beast unleashed, and I'm not just saying that because I own him in a couple of fantasy leagues. He has top-5 talent but has been hampered by injuries and fumbilitis. Maybe the early season benching in favor of Jackie Battle has finally flipped the light switch on for Matthews. Antonio Gates is mediocre at this point in his career. Simply speaking, he could not get open. He was never the fastest guy, but he always had an array of basketball moves to create separation - his agility and burst seem to be sapped and he is no longer creating separation.

Texans 23 - Jets 17:

As predicted, this proved to be somewhat of a trap game for the Texans. A clearly superior team facing an underwhelming Jets team who were without their best offensive or defensive player and Mark Sanchez at Quarterback. But the bright lights of Monday night seem to bring out the best in teams like the Jets and I was nervous that Rex Ryan would light enough of a fire under them that they might pull off an upset. The Jets came up short but it was not for want of trying. Cromartie keep Andre Johnson in check for the whole game and the Jets defense as a whole played much better.

I'm the farthest thing from a Mark Sanchez apologist - I have never considered him a "franchise caliber" quarterback. But even I could see that he simply does not have the weapons to keep this offense afloat and the interceptions were only partly his fault since they were tipped balls. I say "partly" because Sanchez has always had issues with tipped balls. His slow delivery gives defensive linemen too much time to jump up and alter the path of the pass. With the offense being as bad as they have been, I'm surprised Rex Ryan and Tony Sparano (the original NFL wild-cat guru) have not involved Tim Tebow more.

Thursday Night Football pick: 

Steelers 27 - Titans 6:

The Titans might be the one team that are worse than the Bills on defense.  I expect Pittsburgh to take full advantage of that  and I do not expect Matt Hasselbeck to be able to keep up. Pittsburgh has been leaning on the pass more so than I would've expected a team like the Steelers to do so, but maybe Mendenhall will have some influence in changing that. Either way, I expect this offense to have its way with the Titans defense and this one will be over by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.

Already picked: Rams 23 - Cardinals 20 (Result: Rams 17 - Cardinals 3)

Eagles 17 - Steelers 24: Pittsburgh coming off a bye week, at home. If the Eagles weren't so talented, this would be my lock of the week. The Steelers get Mendenhall back, and they need him badly to get their running game going. The Eagles have been excellent against the run thus far so this will be a match-up to watch. If Pittsburgh is able to control the line of scrimmage on offense, and pressure Vick with their returning superstars Polamalu and Harrison, they should be walk away with a win. For the Eagles, Vick would have to be mistake free for them to have a chance, and they need to ride McCoy to wear down that defense and slow down that pass rush. I just don't see those things happening, which is why I'm picking Pittsburgh.

Packers 31 - Colts 21: The Packers have major issues on their offensive line and if Dwight Freeney (Questionable) can be a meaningful contributor it might force the Packers to dial up quick plays and lean on the running game. I expect the Packers to keep with their up-tempo offense, especially with Jennings missing this game. I saw Rodgers finally get into a rhythm last week without Jennings in the line-up so I'm expecting him to be more comfortable in the pocket. I think the Packers go up early and then turn their pass rush loose but I see Luck and the Colts get some garbage-time points. The Colts, by the way, will be without their head coach Chuck Pagano who was diagnosed with Leukemia earlier this week so they will be playing with heavy hearts. Unfortunately they'll be going up against a very motivated Packers squad.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Browns 10 - Giants 28: The Giants lost a heart-breaking division game to the Eagles last week and now get to go back home and face an underwhelming Browns squad and a rookie Quarterback. This score might be even more lop-sided but I think they win by at least two scores. Until Weeden learns how to handle NFL pressure and make accurate throws the Browns passing game will be hot and cold. Plus its not like they have any dynamic weapons on offense besides, maybe, Richardson. What's worse is that the Browns are still without Haden and their defense, so far, has been pedestrian. Even without Hakeem Nicks, the Giants have plenty of weapons as long as Eli Manning is slinging it.

Falcons 31 - Redskins 24: This has the makings of a shootout. Matt Ryan has this offense humming and asides from a monster Week 1, they haven't even gotten Julio Jones going yet. Jones, who was slowed down last week with a laceration on his hand (plus he was double-covered for most of the game), says he's recovered completely so I'm expecting this Atlanta offense to be even more dangerous than it has been. And the Redskins defensive backfield might be the worst in the NFL. At least RGIII will give them a fighting chance to keep pace.

Dolphins 21 - Bengals 24: The Dolphins have shown that they can move the ball on offense, despite mediocre weapons at receiver. Brian Hartline is having a renaissance season, and if Reggie Bush is over his injury this offense should be able to take advantage of an underachieving Bengals defense. On the other side, the Dolphins are excellent at stopping the run but give up a lot of passing yards. AJ Green and Andy Dalton have been on fire for the last month so they will move this offense through the air for the majority of the afternoon. When it comes down to it, this game is a lot closer than I think most people expect. I'm giving the edge to the home team with better weapons all around.

Ravens 31 - Chiefs 14: This game is another good candidate for lock of the week but the Chiefs defense will at least give the Ravens some resistance. I know this game is in Arrowhead, which is a very tough venue for away teams, but I just don't see how the Chiefs can slow down this no-huddle offense right now which is hitting on all cylinders. So far, the no-huddle has been run efficiently. As long as the Ravens continue on that path, they should come away with an easy win in Kansas City. Cassel has been showing us for the past couple of years that he is a mediocre QB who is a product of the New England Patriot system. I think the Chiefs are very close to nearing the end of the line with him. The problem is, they have Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi behind him....yeah I'd be sticking with Cassel too.

Seahawks 24 - Panthers 28: The Panthers finally got Cam Newton going last week but came up short in the end against the undefeated Falcons. Russell Wilson is no Matt Ryan and I expect the Panthers to be able to zero in on stopping Lynch and come away with a victory. The Seahawks are very good at all three levels on defense but Cam seemed to be hitting his stride last week so just a gut feeling that the Panthers get a win here.

Bears 27 - Jaguars 14: The Jags entire offense is Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Chicago Bears are pretty good on defense against the run and the pass. The Bears are also very good at rushing the passer, meanwhile Gabbert might be the worst QB in the face of pressure. If it wasn't for the Bears offensive line issues and their inability to consistently protect Cutler I would be projecting an even bigger win for Chicago.

Broncos 24 - Patriots 34: The Patriots got into their offensive rhythm last week and beat up on my Buffalo Bills. This team is still very dangerous and the Broncos have been only mediocre in pass coverage thus far. I see Welker, Gronk, and Brandon Lloyd having good games. The Pats defense is much better on short to intermediate throws than it is on deep throws. So far the Broncos seem to be shying away from too many deep throws anyways so this this plays into the Patriots strength. I think it will be a close one in Foxboro, but the home team wins here.

Bills 18 - 49ers 31: The 49ers are a top 5 team, and are one of two complete football teams in my opinion. They will pound the rock, and throw off play action and boot legs on offense; we already know how good their defense is. The Bills, fresh off a divisional whipping at the hands of the Patriots, travel cross country going up against a much better team with an inconsistent QB. This will be another early exit for the San Fransisco starters.

Titans 13 - Vikings 27: The Titans running game finally got on track last week but a good chunk of CJ?K's yardage was in garbage time. I'm not buying yet. The Vikes are very good against the run and with Locker being injured their pass defense gets to face an over-the-hill Hasselbeck. On the other side, the Titans are horrendous on defense and the Vikings are judicious with the football on offense. I see the Vikings dominating this game, but maybe not on the scoreboard.

Chargers 24 - Saints 31: These teams are actually much closer to each other than their respective records would indicate. I just don't see the Saints going 0-5. I think Drew Brees pretty much wills this team to a victory. The Saints are a bottom-5 defense, but the Chargers aren't exactly lighting the defensive rankings on fire either. This will be somewhat of a shootout and my gut says Saints.

Texans 28 - Jets 14: I think this could be a trap game for the Texans and maybe the Jets even show some signs of life in the first half but the talent disparity is just too large between these two teams. The Jets will be without their best defensive player in Revis, and arguably their best offensive player in Santonio Holmes. Plus Mark Sanchez is terrible and the Jets defense isn't much better. On the other side, the Texans are the other complete team I was referring to earlier. Their defense is elite and so is their running game, and Schaub will keep defenses honest by throwing it deep to Andre Johnson a couple of times.

Bye: Raiders, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs

Last week's picks:  9-6

NFL-Week 4 Random Thoughts

Browns 16 - Ravens 23:

As I expected, this game was a lot closer than most people thought it would be. Cleveland's season comes down to the development of Weeden as a pocket passer. He's excellent when he's able to set his feet and with a clean pocket, but like most young quarterbacks he notices the pressure far too quickly and reacts to it which leads to errant throws, turnovers, and/or sacks. The Browns can't wait to get back Joe Haden and they sorely missed him in this game as both Boldin and Torrey Smith absolutely destroyed their corners.

I credit the Ravens for not falling for the trap game and putting this game away - although it came down to the last throw and almost a retake of the Packers-Seahawks replacement ref debacle. Flacco is showing, with each game, that he is ready to take the next step. This is a very good team that will get a huge boost when they get Suggs back. They are still lacking in run defense right now, but that should take care of itself as the season goes on.

Patriots 52 - Bills 28:

Where do I begin with this one? This was truly a tale of two halves. In the first half, despite a couple of turnovers, Buffalo seemed like it had an answer for Brady and the Pats offense and they seemed to be moving the ball and putting points on the board while take advantage of the Pats' turnovers. Spiller had a crucial fumble at the goal-line right before the half that would've given the Bills a 14 point lead going into halftime. Heck, they even started the 2nd half with a score on their first possession getting that 14 point lead after all - but it was literally all downhill from there for Buffalo. 35 unanswered points and an embarrassing 45 points allowed in the 2nd half ; that pretty much sums up the game for the Bills. And what was even more disheartening was that it wasn't so much Brady as it was the running game with only a couple of different running plays that Belichick just ran over and over again and the Bills simply could not stop them. They got pushed off the ball with so much ease, I could have probably averaged 4-5 yards a carry for the Pats.

I have to give the Patriots credit for sticking to the game-plan and making the necessary half-time adjustments. I never sensed any panic on their sideline even when they were down 14 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills looked in control. The Bills, on the other hand, has a long way to go. This team has the talent, and they have the will, but honestly what this team lacks is the mental fortitude to put the game away. They play their best football when coming from behind, but they are clueless what to do with a lead. They have their roughest part of the schedule coming up with a couple of west coast trips. We'll find out very soon what kind of team this is.

Panthers 28 - Falcons 30:

What a close game! The Panthers played pretty well and hung with the Falcons throughout the game. Cam Newton had a very good day throwing and running and he did not turn the ball over. The defense found it's pass rush although they couldn't stop the run or the pass for much of the game. This team has some serious holes on defense and they are very young. For example, the Panthers decide to punt the ball from midfield with 1:09 left (this is a whole different issue that I will address below). They down the ball at the Atlanta 1 yard line. As a defense you have to expect one of two things - either a run right up the middle so that the offense can get out of its own end zone, or a long pass down the sideline. With Atlanta having no timeouts left, the defense has to be thinking pass here. The Falcons run a play action deep ball to Roddy White down the left sideline and the Panthers just didn't seem ready for it. They had Haruki Nakamura, who really wouldn't start for any other team in the NFL and who was a special-teamer in this league up until this year, provide support over the top against one of the best receivers in the game. This team won't take a step forward on defense until they start making better in-game adjustments.

The Falcons played excellent on offense but their defense just didn't have an answer for Cam Newton which is what kept the Panthers in this game. But I have to give them credit for that comeback; Ryan managed that offense like an elite quarterback and that offense just looked very focused on that last drive - everybody on the same page.

49ers 34 - Jets 0:

I caught very little of this game, but every time I did tune in I was a little happy to see how terrible the Jets offense looked. Tebow will be starting soon enough I think.

Seahawks 13 - Rams 19:

I knew this was going to be a close game and I thought that the Seahawks would not be able to rebound from the emotional and controversial MNF win against the Packers. This Rams defense is very underrated. Cortland Finnegan is a top five corner in this league that doesn't seem to get the recognition. Not only can he shut down the top receiver on the opposing team, he is an excellent run defender. That's a rare combination to have in your corner.

The Seahawks are very good on defense but they are really lacking a passing game. If they weren't 2-2 we might be talking about benching Russell Wilson, not that it's entirely his fault. This is all I got from the occasional drive I watched.

Raiders 6 - Broncos 37:

The Broncos are really good on offense and defense. They've just been a victim of a very tough schedule thus far - they beat Pittsburgh, an AFC powerhouse, at the season opener and then lost to the Falcons and the Texans the following two weeks - arguably the two best teams in the league right now and both undefeated. So I fully expected this result against a much weaker, albeit divisional, foe. Peyton Manning is looking much like the 2010 guy and he has very good weapons in Thomas, Decker, and Tamme. I hate to say it but Willis McGahee is looking very good as well. His vision seems to be much better than when he played for Buffalo, but I do see him dancing behind the line every so often still. I can't not say something about their defense - they played solid throughout the game. This defense is built to defend the pass and I think that's the right idea with Peyton Manning at quarterback - you figure you'll be playing with a lead more often than not and you need to be able to defend it.

The Raiders came into this game pretty banged up and they are still getting that zone running scheme working. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is going to take this team over the hump. McFadden has top RB in the league skills but he has yet to put it together. This division belongs to the Broncos as of now and their only competition seems to be the Chargers.

Redskins 24 - Buccaneers 22:

The Bucs are another one of these teams that are trying to make it over the hump and they're doing it with a rookie head coach. I was not a fan of their offensive game plan. I realize that the Redskins have had issues defending the pass, but you still have to make them respect the run and keep them honest. Plus Josh Freeman isn't a top-10 quarterback so why put all the pressure on him? Their biggest mistake, though, was playing for the field goal in the waning moments of the game. I realize RGIII, as dynamic as he has proven to be, is not Tom Brady, but still that Redskins offense can move the ball with ease and the Bucs made it very clear that they were content with a field goal to win that game by 1. The only problem was the the Redskins had timeouts left and plenty of time to come back on the last drive and kick a game winning field-goal of their own.

Not enough coaches are aggressive in the NFL, and there are many others who are aggressive at the wrong moments in the game. Greg Schiano is not alone.

Giants 17 - Eagles 19:

The Eagles had an excellent game-plan for the incoming Giants, who had 11 days to prepare for this contest. Vick played a turnover-free game and they finally put the ball in McCoy's hands. This is the best way for them to get back on track and what a luxury to have turned the ball over as many times as they have and still be 3-1.

The Giants could not get the ground game going and while they were able to move the ball through the air, they couldn't put it in the end zone. Their special teams, particularly the kickoff return team, had an excellent game. Rookie running back/returner David Wilson averaged 36 yards per return but really it was like 41 yards since he was returning the ball from the middle of the end zone every time.

Bears 34 - Cowboys 18:

The Cowboys are just like the other teams trying to make it over the hump themselves but that's not the perception we have of them, mainly because of who they are and the texan-sized animal that is the Dallas Cowboys. Truth of the matter is, this team is lacking players with mental fortitude just like the Buffalo Bills or the Carolina Panthers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They cannot focus on the task when the game is on the line - simple as that. I saw undisciplined play, lack of focus and urgency from them. When Romo throws five interceptions, though not all of them were his fault, you cannot expect to win (unless you're playing against the Bills - which the Cowboys actually did a few years back).

The Bears defense is very good, especially up front. That defensive line looks very much like the Giants defensive line. They have big guys who are very athletic and rangy and can all rush the passer very well. They essentially have four defensive ends playing on that D-line that can also stop the run. They still have issues on the offensive line, and much has been made of the sideline rift between Cutler and offensive coordinator Mike Tice, but if they can not shoot themselves in the foot on offense they could come away with a division title with the Lions and the Packers struggling somewhat. By the way, although I am not a fan of Cutler's antics on the sideline and in the huddle, he does have some legitimate beef here - there were several times when the plays coming in took a long time giving Cutler only 8-10 seconds to get to the line, make his pre-snap adjustments and get the ball snapped. That is not enough time for any quarterback and this usually ends up in sacks or turnovers for the offense or wasted timeouts. Another thing I have noticed with Tice is that despite shoddy offensive line play thus far, he refuses to keep extra blockers to in to protect Cutler despite calling for plays that include slow-developing routes. All of these issues will surely rear their ugly heads if the Bears lose, but for now they are on ice for one more week.

Thursday Night Football pick:

Rams 23 - Cardinals 20:

The Rams match-up with the Cardinals really well and I just don't fully buy the 4-0 record for the Cards. I think Finnegan will keep Fitzgerald in check for the most part and the Rams pass rush will take advantage of that weak Cardinal offensive line. The Cards will stay in this game largely due to their defense and its not exactly like the Rams offense will strike fear in anybody. I can just as easily see the Cardinals with a victory but I'm just making a gut call that Fisher will have the Rams ready to play on a short week.