Free Agency, in my opinion, should never be relied upon to build the core of your team. In football, unlike baseball or basketball, simply getting the most productive player available at his position does not guarantee you continued production. In fact, it doesn't necessarily even make it likely. I've always seen NFL free agency as a few teams, usually the same ones that aren't playing into January regularly, overpay for mediocre talent, while smart teams, the ones that do go deep into the playoffs, make good value deals after the first wave or two of free agency has passed.
Like anything else, there are always exceptions. Last year we saw the Colts part with one of the best quarterbacks of our generation and a sure-fire hall of famer with still a few years left in him. It took a season-ending injury and a "once every ten years" prospect in Andrew Luck for the Colts to even consider releasing Manning. My point is this: every general manager and front office has a valuation of every player close to entering free agency. The ones who are able to properly evaluate the value of the available player AND stay disciplined to that evaluation are the ones that consistently put a playoff roster together. You look at the Ozzie Newsomes and the Bill Belichicks of the world, there's a reason why their respective teams consistently make the playoffs while still never enter salary cap hell. Yes they have the big quarterback question answered, and of course coaching has a lot to do with it, but what separates the good teams from the great is the middle to lower thirds of the roster. Every playoff team has made it there with quality depth because football is a violent sport and chances are you will lose a few starters along the way to injuries.
Just last year, the Bucaneers and the Bills were universally hailed as free agency winners and where were they in January? Free agency is an exciting time for NFL fans, but just be careful of overreacting one way or the other on your team's moves. The Ravens traded away Boldin because he refused to take a $2 million dollar paycut and the Patriots let Welker walk and sign with the Broncos for essentially $1 million per year. These may seem like horrible decisions but Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are two of the best GMs in football. In the words of Scott Pioli, "free agency is a fine line between paying for past and future performance." I'm not saying the Niners or the Broncos made bad decisions by signing Boldin or Welker, respectively. In fact, I think the decisions by all four franchises involved are sound. It just shows that the Niners and the Broncos valued Boldin and Welker, respectively, a little more than the Ravens and the Patriots did. Who ended up making the better decision? We'll see in the next couple of years. But one thing is for sure, Super Bowls aren't won in March.
Like anything else, there are always exceptions. Last year we saw the Colts part with one of the best quarterbacks of our generation and a sure-fire hall of famer with still a few years left in him. It took a season-ending injury and a "once every ten years" prospect in Andrew Luck for the Colts to even consider releasing Manning. My point is this: every general manager and front office has a valuation of every player close to entering free agency. The ones who are able to properly evaluate the value of the available player AND stay disciplined to that evaluation are the ones that consistently put a playoff roster together. You look at the Ozzie Newsomes and the Bill Belichicks of the world, there's a reason why their respective teams consistently make the playoffs while still never enter salary cap hell. Yes they have the big quarterback question answered, and of course coaching has a lot to do with it, but what separates the good teams from the great is the middle to lower thirds of the roster. Every playoff team has made it there with quality depth because football is a violent sport and chances are you will lose a few starters along the way to injuries.
Just last year, the Bucaneers and the Bills were universally hailed as free agency winners and where were they in January? Free agency is an exciting time for NFL fans, but just be careful of overreacting one way or the other on your team's moves. The Ravens traded away Boldin because he refused to take a $2 million dollar paycut and the Patriots let Welker walk and sign with the Broncos for essentially $1 million per year. These may seem like horrible decisions but Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are two of the best GMs in football. In the words of Scott Pioli, "free agency is a fine line between paying for past and future performance." I'm not saying the Niners or the Broncos made bad decisions by signing Boldin or Welker, respectively. In fact, I think the decisions by all four franchises involved are sound. It just shows that the Niners and the Broncos valued Boldin and Welker, respectively, a little more than the Ravens and the Patriots did. Who ended up making the better decision? We'll see in the next couple of years. But one thing is for sure, Super Bowls aren't won in March.
