Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.
Already picked: Steelers 27 - Titans 6 (Result: Steelers 23 - Titans 26)
Raiders 17 - Falcons 34:
Even though the Raiders are coming off a bye, they will be traveling across country and playing in an early away game. They've had issues running the football - McFadden does not seem to have adjusted to the zone-blocking scheme (the same scheme he had issues with earlier in his career when he first arrived at Oakland). The Raiders will try their best to get their ground attack going but the Falcon run defense is underrated and plays disciplined. Plus I expect Matt Ryan and co. to use their balanced attack against the over matched Raider defense and go up early, thus forcing the Raiders to abandon the run game by the 2nd half. I can't trust Carson Palmer to be turnover free and I expect the Falcons to win easily at home.
Bengals 18 - Browns 21:
In a minor upset, I'm picking the Browns to win in this one. It's not that the Bengals are not good, it's just that the Browns are actually decent themselves. They are not as bad as their record would indicate, especially their defense which now gets pro-bowl cornerback Joe Haden back from suspension. Haden will be charged with slowing down superstar AJ Green and I expect Andy Dalton to struggle somewhat against this underrated Browns defense.
Rams 17 - Dolphins 20:
Another low scoring affair. The Rams offensive line has been brutal and marred with injuries, and now Danny Amendola, their best offensive weapon not named Steven Jackson, is out for a good portion of the season. This team just cannot catch a break. Both defenses are pretty good and I give the slight edge to Miami's offense despite a banged up Reggie Bush and underwhelming talent at wide receiver. I know Brian Hartline had an amazing game a couple of weeks ago but he's an average NFL talent, not a #1 wide receiver - confirmed by the Dolphins General Manager Jeff Ireland.
Colts 20 - Jets 21:
The Jets played very well on MNF against probably the best team in the NFL. The Colts also had an emotional victory against, arguably, the best team in the NFL coming into the season. So this is an interesting match-up. Andrew Luck is finding his stride as a passer in the NFL and the Jets are still decent on defense even without Revis. These teams match up well against each other so I expect a tight one. Given how hard the Jets fought last week and the emotional victory that the Colts had, I am giving the slight edge to the home team.
Lions 23 - Eagles 28:
The Lions simply have not been able to find success on offense, and their main issue is running the ball. Their offensive line is not opening rushing lanes right now and they have underwhelming talent at running back. They also badly need another wideout to step up across from Megatron. Defenses seem content with doubling C.Johnson and stacking 7 in the box and taking away Pettigrew with their best covering linebacker or safety. Also, Stafford just does not look the same. Even if we put all of that aside, the Eagles have a very good defense and this is a home game for them. As long as Andy Reid rides McCoy, this should be a win for the Eagles. I have my reservations about Vick and the Lions have forced 6 fumbles thus far this year so I could just as easily see this score reversed. But for now, I'm picking the Eagles.
Chiefs 13 - Buccaneers 27 (Lock of the Week):
Brady Quinn finally gets his shot, and I think he will play decent in this game. But personnel wise, the Chiefs do not have the consistent play at certain key positions to take advantage of the Bucs weak secondary. On the flip side, the Chiefs' strongest offensive weapon, Jamal Charles, will be going against the Bucs strongest defensive weapon - their run defense. The Chiefs are pretty decent on defense but if Brady Quinn has a rough, turnover-filled game, they might be stretched too thin and on the field too much to have any success against a mediocre Bucs offense.
Cowboys 23 - Ravens 31:
Even though both pass defenses have held up well so far, I think their respective rankings have been a bit of a mirage based on who they've played so far. Flacco and the Ravens play much better at home and I'm expecting somewhat of a shootout here. The Cowboys have a good chance in this game to come away with a win if they lean on Demarco Murray - unfortunately I don't see that happening. Plus if Flacco finds his rhythm at home, as he has done usually, the Cowboys could be down early and be forced to throw (which Jason Garret loves to do anyways). I like the no-huddle offense but I think the Ravens won't use it as much this week and lean more on Ray Rice running the ball and setting up the play-action pass.
Bills 21 - Cardinals 18:
I know. I can't believe it either. How could I possibly pick the Bills in this game? After the thrashing they took the last two weeks and on the road on the West Coast against a 4-1 team? The Bills stayed in Arizona, after they got whupped by San Fran, for the whole week. They won't have the jet lag or the travel to deal with. They can't possibly do any worse on defense and I think the week away from home and all the negative media coverage they would've gotten in Buffalo will help this team focus on the task at hand. I know, it's a long shot but I just have that sneaky feeling - the same one I had for the Jets against the Texans. Except, the Cardinals, despite their 4-1 record, are nowhere close to the Texans. Their offensive line is atrocious, and Kolb is due to have a couple of bad games. Plus they just lost Ryan Williams for the season leaving below average talent at running back. If there's any week for the Bills defense to stop the run and get that pass rush going, it's this week. The Bills are also traditionally a very bad road team, but my gut says the Bills (and it doesn't do that a lot).
Patriots 31 - Seahawks 21:
I've heard a lot of people this week who are picking the Seahawks to upset the Pats in Seattle. I understand the 12th man element to it. I also see how physical this defense is and I am in awe at the size and speed of this defense as a whole. But, this is Tom Brady we're talking about. As loud as that stadium will be, I expect Brady and Belichick to have this team fully ready for that element of the game. And nothing quiets a crowd down quicker than third down conversions (asides from touchdowns) - and Brady is the best at that. Despite the Patriots becoming a running team now, I don't think they will run the ball much, instead choosing to attack and expose the Seahawks defensive backfield. I expect a lot of quick throws to keep Bruce Irvin and the pass rush at bay. And on defense, I expect some exotic looks and blitzes to force Russell Wilson into a couple of bad throws and turnovers. This one will be close early on but I expect the better team to pull away.
Giants 23 - 49ers 27:
On offense, the Giants will be forced to abandon the run early on and lean on the pass. And while, in the past, that has been a recipe for success for them, this is the 49ers defense we're talking about and at home nonetheless. The niners will have revenge on their minds from last year's NFC championship game and I fully expect them to rise to the occasion. The Giants have a tough time defending tight ends so I think the Niners would be wise to feature Vernon Davis in the passing game - it just so happens that they like to do that anyways. The whole Giants defense has had issues early in the games and I can see the Niners getting a score or two up on them early on with the Giants playing catch up for the rest of the game (without their best deep threat - Hakeem Nicks) and falling short against the best defense in the NFL.
Vikings 28 - Redskins 17:
RGIII is questionable for this game although all the practice reports seem optimistic that he will play. I still think the Vikings defense will be too much for this Redskins offense. The Skins will try their best to run the ball but I'm giving the edge to the Viking defense. The Redskins defense is horrendous against the pass and they're actually decent against the run but we're talking about Adrian Peterson here - he'll get his.
Packers 24 - Texans 27:
The Packers have been hit with injuries probably as hard as anyone in the NFL, and they've been victims of bad luck thus far. They got robbed by the refs against the Seahawks, and then last week they went against a very emotionally motivated Colts team on the road. Now they get to play against probably one of the top two or three teams in the NFL. The Jets game was a wake up call for the Texans and they'll be ready for this one - with or without Brian Cushing. The Packers offense still does not seem in sync and they'll likely be without Greg Jennings, Cedric Benson and Jermichael Finley.
Broncos 24 - Chargers 28:
The Broncos are 0-2 away from Denver and they get a motivated Chargers team in a divisional match up. Both defenses have been underwhelming thus far, but the Charger defense has been pretty good against the run. I think Peyton has trouble away from home right now and unless he shows otherwise I'm picking the Chargers. This will be a very close game and can really go either way. I'm picking Chargers based purely on a gut feeling.
Last Week's Picks: 10-3
Already picked: Steelers 27 - Titans 6 (Result: Steelers 23 - Titans 26)
Raiders 17 - Falcons 34:
Even though the Raiders are coming off a bye, they will be traveling across country and playing in an early away game. They've had issues running the football - McFadden does not seem to have adjusted to the zone-blocking scheme (the same scheme he had issues with earlier in his career when he first arrived at Oakland). The Raiders will try their best to get their ground attack going but the Falcon run defense is underrated and plays disciplined. Plus I expect Matt Ryan and co. to use their balanced attack against the over matched Raider defense and go up early, thus forcing the Raiders to abandon the run game by the 2nd half. I can't trust Carson Palmer to be turnover free and I expect the Falcons to win easily at home.
Bengals 18 - Browns 21:
In a minor upset, I'm picking the Browns to win in this one. It's not that the Bengals are not good, it's just that the Browns are actually decent themselves. They are not as bad as their record would indicate, especially their defense which now gets pro-bowl cornerback Joe Haden back from suspension. Haden will be charged with slowing down superstar AJ Green and I expect Andy Dalton to struggle somewhat against this underrated Browns defense.
Rams 17 - Dolphins 20:
Another low scoring affair. The Rams offensive line has been brutal and marred with injuries, and now Danny Amendola, their best offensive weapon not named Steven Jackson, is out for a good portion of the season. This team just cannot catch a break. Both defenses are pretty good and I give the slight edge to Miami's offense despite a banged up Reggie Bush and underwhelming talent at wide receiver. I know Brian Hartline had an amazing game a couple of weeks ago but he's an average NFL talent, not a #1 wide receiver - confirmed by the Dolphins General Manager Jeff Ireland.
Colts 20 - Jets 21:
The Jets played very well on MNF against probably the best team in the NFL. The Colts also had an emotional victory against, arguably, the best team in the NFL coming into the season. So this is an interesting match-up. Andrew Luck is finding his stride as a passer in the NFL and the Jets are still decent on defense even without Revis. These teams match up well against each other so I expect a tight one. Given how hard the Jets fought last week and the emotional victory that the Colts had, I am giving the slight edge to the home team.
Lions 23 - Eagles 28:
The Lions simply have not been able to find success on offense, and their main issue is running the ball. Their offensive line is not opening rushing lanes right now and they have underwhelming talent at running back. They also badly need another wideout to step up across from Megatron. Defenses seem content with doubling C.Johnson and stacking 7 in the box and taking away Pettigrew with their best covering linebacker or safety. Also, Stafford just does not look the same. Even if we put all of that aside, the Eagles have a very good defense and this is a home game for them. As long as Andy Reid rides McCoy, this should be a win for the Eagles. I have my reservations about Vick and the Lions have forced 6 fumbles thus far this year so I could just as easily see this score reversed. But for now, I'm picking the Eagles.
Chiefs 13 - Buccaneers 27 (Lock of the Week):
Brady Quinn finally gets his shot, and I think he will play decent in this game. But personnel wise, the Chiefs do not have the consistent play at certain key positions to take advantage of the Bucs weak secondary. On the flip side, the Chiefs' strongest offensive weapon, Jamal Charles, will be going against the Bucs strongest defensive weapon - their run defense. The Chiefs are pretty decent on defense but if Brady Quinn has a rough, turnover-filled game, they might be stretched too thin and on the field too much to have any success against a mediocre Bucs offense.
Cowboys 23 - Ravens 31:
Even though both pass defenses have held up well so far, I think their respective rankings have been a bit of a mirage based on who they've played so far. Flacco and the Ravens play much better at home and I'm expecting somewhat of a shootout here. The Cowboys have a good chance in this game to come away with a win if they lean on Demarco Murray - unfortunately I don't see that happening. Plus if Flacco finds his rhythm at home, as he has done usually, the Cowboys could be down early and be forced to throw (which Jason Garret loves to do anyways). I like the no-huddle offense but I think the Ravens won't use it as much this week and lean more on Ray Rice running the ball and setting up the play-action pass.
Bills 21 - Cardinals 18:
I know. I can't believe it either. How could I possibly pick the Bills in this game? After the thrashing they took the last two weeks and on the road on the West Coast against a 4-1 team? The Bills stayed in Arizona, after they got whupped by San Fran, for the whole week. They won't have the jet lag or the travel to deal with. They can't possibly do any worse on defense and I think the week away from home and all the negative media coverage they would've gotten in Buffalo will help this team focus on the task at hand. I know, it's a long shot but I just have that sneaky feeling - the same one I had for the Jets against the Texans. Except, the Cardinals, despite their 4-1 record, are nowhere close to the Texans. Their offensive line is atrocious, and Kolb is due to have a couple of bad games. Plus they just lost Ryan Williams for the season leaving below average talent at running back. If there's any week for the Bills defense to stop the run and get that pass rush going, it's this week. The Bills are also traditionally a very bad road team, but my gut says the Bills (and it doesn't do that a lot).
Patriots 31 - Seahawks 21:
I've heard a lot of people this week who are picking the Seahawks to upset the Pats in Seattle. I understand the 12th man element to it. I also see how physical this defense is and I am in awe at the size and speed of this defense as a whole. But, this is Tom Brady we're talking about. As loud as that stadium will be, I expect Brady and Belichick to have this team fully ready for that element of the game. And nothing quiets a crowd down quicker than third down conversions (asides from touchdowns) - and Brady is the best at that. Despite the Patriots becoming a running team now, I don't think they will run the ball much, instead choosing to attack and expose the Seahawks defensive backfield. I expect a lot of quick throws to keep Bruce Irvin and the pass rush at bay. And on defense, I expect some exotic looks and blitzes to force Russell Wilson into a couple of bad throws and turnovers. This one will be close early on but I expect the better team to pull away.
Giants 23 - 49ers 27:
On offense, the Giants will be forced to abandon the run early on and lean on the pass. And while, in the past, that has been a recipe for success for them, this is the 49ers defense we're talking about and at home nonetheless. The niners will have revenge on their minds from last year's NFC championship game and I fully expect them to rise to the occasion. The Giants have a tough time defending tight ends so I think the Niners would be wise to feature Vernon Davis in the passing game - it just so happens that they like to do that anyways. The whole Giants defense has had issues early in the games and I can see the Niners getting a score or two up on them early on with the Giants playing catch up for the rest of the game (without their best deep threat - Hakeem Nicks) and falling short against the best defense in the NFL.
Vikings 28 - Redskins 17:
RGIII is questionable for this game although all the practice reports seem optimistic that he will play. I still think the Vikings defense will be too much for this Redskins offense. The Skins will try their best to run the ball but I'm giving the edge to the Viking defense. The Redskins defense is horrendous against the pass and they're actually decent against the run but we're talking about Adrian Peterson here - he'll get his.
Packers 24 - Texans 27:
The Packers have been hit with injuries probably as hard as anyone in the NFL, and they've been victims of bad luck thus far. They got robbed by the refs against the Seahawks, and then last week they went against a very emotionally motivated Colts team on the road. Now they get to play against probably one of the top two or three teams in the NFL. The Jets game was a wake up call for the Texans and they'll be ready for this one - with or without Brian Cushing. The Packers offense still does not seem in sync and they'll likely be without Greg Jennings, Cedric Benson and Jermichael Finley.
Broncos 24 - Chargers 28:
The Broncos are 0-2 away from Denver and they get a motivated Chargers team in a divisional match up. Both defenses have been underwhelming thus far, but the Charger defense has been pretty good against the run. I think Peyton has trouble away from home right now and unless he shows otherwise I'm picking the Chargers. This will be a very close game and can really go either way. I'm picking Chargers based purely on a gut feeling.
Last Week's Picks: 10-3
No comments:
Post a Comment