Already picked: 49ers 17 - Seahawks 13 (Result: 49ers 13 - Seahawks 6)
Cardinals 17 - Vikings 28:
I've talked in the past about how the Cardinals 4-2 record is a mirage. The Vikings have a similar perception as well but I do think they're more real than the Cardinals who will be without Kevin Kolb and starting John Skelton - not that it really matters which one of those two they start in this game. The Vikings are excellent against the run and I expect the Cardinals underwhelming rushing attack and putrid offensive line to be over-matched. When the Cards are forced to abandon the run, I just don't see myself trusting John Skelton much.
On the other hand, the Vikings actually have a very good running game match-up against a soft-in-the-middle Cardinals defense. This will only help Christian Ponder in the passing game, though the going will be tougher there against Patrick Peterson. I think the Vikes put this game away into the 3rd quarter and run the clock out in the 4th.
Cowboys 31 - Panthers 24:
It's make or break time for the Cowboys and they'll be without their most reliable running weapon against a terrible run defense. In this juicy match up against the leaky Panthers defense, I expect even Felix Jones and Philip Tanner to produce enough ground success to keep the safeties honest. Say what you want about Romo, he's given this team a chance to win in most of their games. Dez Bryant showed some great signs last week but then, almost on cue, he had a mental lapse and dropped what would've been a game-tying two point conversion. Physically, he has the skills to be the best in the NFL. Mentally, he's a work in progress but the improvement in his last two games is noticeable. In the end, I think the Cowboys just have too many weapons for this weak Panther defense to handle.
You know who else it's "make or break" time for? Cam Newton. He seems to have taken a step back from his sensational rookie season. He's locking on to his first receiver too much - a trend I noticed early last year, but one he was able to overcome in the first half of last season based on pure talent alone. He needs to be more decisive in the pocket and he needs to learn how to look off safeties. He's so incredibly talented that I think the tendency is for him to get lazy with the details. Unfortunately for him, everyone in the NFL is really talented and as they say, "the devil's in the details." This talented Cowboys secondary will be a very good test for Newton coming off a bye week where, hopefully, he worked on correcting those mistakes.
Saints 17 - Buccaneers 27:
The Saints get Jonathan Vilma back but I don't think he'll be enough to help this defense. On offense they will be without Jimmy Graham and the Saints generally don't do as well outdoors as they do in the friendly confines of the Superdome. I expect the going to be tougher than one would expect against a Buccaneers defense that is coming off a bye week. I like teams coming off a bye against a divisional opponent. The Saints have not been able to come with a running game despite their stable of backs and I don't see that changing this week against a great defensive front seven.
I expect the Buccaneers to come out attacking and taking advantage of the individual match-ups against the Saints. Usually when your team is over-matched on talent on defense, teams will do one of two things - they will either play to limit the damage (coaches like Dick Jauron have employed this philosophy in the past) or they will be very aggressive in order to get to the quarterback and often they might be over-aggressive. I expect the latter approach by the Saints and to counter it, I expect the Bucs to utilize quick throws and screens to Doug Martin and open up the down-field passing game.
Packers 27 - Rams 13:
If the Rams had a healthy Danny Amendola and one more decent receiving option, this would be a very good game. Unfortunately for them, they don't and I don't expect the Rams to be able to keep up with a Packers offense that has found its groove. The Rams defense is very good but often plays from behind and is on the field too much to have consistent success. The Packers will be without nose tackle BJ Raji and I think Jeff Fisher will do his best to run the ball and keep it out of Rodgers' hands - but he doesn't need much time to score as evidenced by his surgery of the previously vaunted Texans defense.
Redskins 24 - Giants 27:
The Giants typically don't do well against the NFC West so I was tempted to pick the Redskins here. But the Giants defense finally came alive last week on the west coast and I think they keep the momentum going against the explosive and ever-dangerous RGIII. The Redskins, in my opinion, are playing with fire by allowing RGIII to run so much. They've already had one big scare two weeks ago when he took a big hit and had "a mild concussion," which, I've been told, does not exist. You either have the symptoms of a concussion or you don't. These symptoms may be "mild" but that won't be clear until you've given it a couple of days to work itself out. The Redskins called it a "mild concussion" almost immediately after the game. Anyways, with his frame and the exposure to big hits, the Redskins won't be so lucky next time.
The Giants might be forced to limit a red hot Ahmad Bradshaw but they have enough weapons in the running game to keep up the success on the ground. Hakeem Nicks finally seems to be turning a corner in his recovery and I expect him to tear up this sub-par Redskins secondary. The Giants offensive line has not given up a sack in three games so this will be a good match up to watch against a Redskins pass rush that is without Brian Orakpo.
P.S. - I plan on doing a more in depth post on the development of RGIII v. Andrew Luck midway through the season. Some of my points may surprise you.
Ravens 27 - Texans 24:
A month ago i would've picked this as a 10-13 ball game but injuries have piled up quickly on both defenses - probably the Ravens more so than the Texans - making this somewhat of a high scoring game. The Texans will surely test this leaky run defense with Arian Foster early and often which might open things up for Owen Daniels in the play-action passing game. Daniels, by the way, seems to be Schaub's #1 target with Andre Johnson being mostly double-covered.
The Ravens need to get back to force-feeding the football to Ray Rice. Flacco is out of rhythm in the passing game and the best way to get him back on track is to give him some high percentage throws to begin the game. With Clay Matthews out, I expect the Ravens to pick on the Texans linebackers with crossing routes and this will hopefully draw the safeties down and open up the deep ball to Torrey Smith. I know Flacco struggles on the road but hopefully Terrell Suggs returning to the lineup gives this team enough of a boost to outlast the Texans.
Titans 27- Bills 31:
This game has the potential to be a shoot out, however its not because either offense is bursting with talent. It's just that both defenses have been downright atrocious against the run and the pass so far. The Bills play an attacking type of run defense where they try to hit the ball carrier before he gets going. However, when players don't maintain gap discipline while maintaining this approach to stopping the run, they can give up big chunks of yardage. And then you add Chris Johnson to the equation who has the potential to take it to the house on any given play and seems to have found his groove after a rough start to the season. Needless to say this could be a boom or bust day for the Bills run defense and the Titans running game.
The Bills, of course, have their own tandem of backs to run the ball down Tennessee's throat and they're much better at run blocking and the Titans aren't that good at defending the run either. Both pass defenses have suffered as well and the Titans get Kenny Britt at full speed for the first time this year which is why I expect this to be a shoot out.I'm giving the edge to the Bills, who usually play much better at home, coming off a huge "gut-check" victory in Arizona.
Browns 24 - Colts 21:
Coming off a huge emotional win against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, Andrew Luck and the Colts got steam rolled by the Jets?! You know, the Jets of the all-pro running back Shonn Greene and quarterback Mark Sanchez. Right. And the development of young Andrew Luck goes on. The Jets completely blanketed Reggie Wayne and Luck was flustered when he couldn't find his top option. The Browns got Joe Haden back last week and you can bet they will try the same strategy with him. I expect the Colts to lean more on the running game and the secondary weapons (Fleener, Allen, Hilton, Avery etc.) if the Browns employ the same strategy and take away Reggie Wayne.
On the flip side, the Colts will be without Robert Mathis again and all-pro Dwight Freeney will have to take on all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas. Brandon Weeden does his best work in a clean pocket and I expect him to be clean for much of the game. The Browns' young receivers are showing signs of development, particularly Josh Gordon. Now he needs to show that he's not a one-trick pony and run some short and intermediate routes for completions. This will be somewhat of a shootout but I give the edge to the team with the better defense and running game and that team is the Browns.
Jets 20 - Patriots 35 (Lock of the Week):
If the Jets had Revis, Mark Sanchez was passing well, and the Jets defense was back to 2009 form, then they would have a good shot at winning this game. Sadly, for them, none of these things are true and right now I pick the Patriots 10 out of 10 times. The Pats are coming off a huge loss against the Seahawks and are motivated at home. Rex Ryan does his talking in the week leading up to the game, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady do their talking on the field by putting up points in bunches. The Pats got talented tight end Aaron Hernandez back last week but he was being phased into the offense. This week, I expect more snaps for Hernandez and thus more match up problems for the Jets. The Pats have too many weapons and have shown this year that they can even run the ball to earn a victory.
The Pats defense has been excellent against the run thus far but has some major issues in the back end against the deep ball. I still don't expect Mark Sanchez to have too much success, asides from maybe a play or two. The Jets had majority of their running success last week up the middle and the Pats will have Vince Wilfork waiting for Shonn Greene. Honestly, even if the Jets had Revis, I'd have hard time not picking the Patriots in this situation.
Jaguars 13 - Raiders 24:
The Raiders found their pass rush last week against Matt Ryan and the Falcons and almost pulled off the upset. This week they get to go back home and face an underwhelming Jaguars team. Carson Palmer gets a healthy squad of receivers this week and the Raider running game is still a work in progress. I expect the Raiders to have moderate success against this Jaguars defense that has been equally underwhelming. I just don't think the Jags have the weapons on offense, or a quarterback for that matter, that can take advantage of the holes in the Raiders defense.
Steelers 20 - Bengals 17:
The Steelers cannot be this bad. They've been terrible away from Heinz field this year and they cannot run the ball to save their lives. They've also been hit hard with injuries, especially on the offensive line. With the running backs also banged up, the expectation would be to put the game in Big Ben's hands with the passing game. But I think the Steelers get stubborn about running the ball and plod their way with Jonathan Dwyer, Barron Batch etc. to a hard-hitting, low-scoring, divisional victory away from home.
The Bengals' passing game has been clicking thus far into the season but the same cannot be said about their running game. The signing of BJGE has been a bust so far and the Bengals lost Bernard Scott last week. Third-down specialist Brian Leonard is also out for this game. I expect Big Ben and the Steelers to be able to overcome the offensive line injuries better than the Bengals to overcome the lack of a running game. Coming off an upset at the hands of the Titans, I think the Steelers will be motivated and focused to leave Cincinnati with a victory.
Lions 17 - Bears 28:
The Bears are coming off a bye, and now get the Lions at home on MNF. This Bears defense is impressive and is hitting on all cylinders..the Lions, meanwhile, have been pretty bad on defense thus far. I don't know what has happened to this defensive line. They have so much talent there but they don't seem to be getting it done and the rest of the back seven has never been that impressive. The Bears have had major offensive line issues but with the bye week, hopefully, they worked on their pass protection woes. Matt Forte has done well against the Lions in his career and I expect that to continue on Monday night.
Matt Stafford looks ordinary this season. His footwork has been terrible and thus his accuracy has suffered. I realize that the Lions need a receiver across from Calvin Johnson to step up but I think this is more of a Stafford issue than a #2 wide receiver issue. To compound this problem, the Lions do not have a running game. I was surprised when they didn't sign some veteran insurance this off-season behind an inexperienced Mikel LeShoure and a brittle Kevin Smith. I know they had Jahvid Best on the PUP but they would've been foolish to depend on him being active. Anyways, I give Lions credit for pulling off an upset last week against the reeling Eagles but Soldier Field won't be as friendly this week.
Last Week's Picks: 8-6
Cardinals 17 - Vikings 28:
I've talked in the past about how the Cardinals 4-2 record is a mirage. The Vikings have a similar perception as well but I do think they're more real than the Cardinals who will be without Kevin Kolb and starting John Skelton - not that it really matters which one of those two they start in this game. The Vikings are excellent against the run and I expect the Cardinals underwhelming rushing attack and putrid offensive line to be over-matched. When the Cards are forced to abandon the run, I just don't see myself trusting John Skelton much.
On the other hand, the Vikings actually have a very good running game match-up against a soft-in-the-middle Cardinals defense. This will only help Christian Ponder in the passing game, though the going will be tougher there against Patrick Peterson. I think the Vikes put this game away into the 3rd quarter and run the clock out in the 4th.
Cowboys 31 - Panthers 24:
It's make or break time for the Cowboys and they'll be without their most reliable running weapon against a terrible run defense. In this juicy match up against the leaky Panthers defense, I expect even Felix Jones and Philip Tanner to produce enough ground success to keep the safeties honest. Say what you want about Romo, he's given this team a chance to win in most of their games. Dez Bryant showed some great signs last week but then, almost on cue, he had a mental lapse and dropped what would've been a game-tying two point conversion. Physically, he has the skills to be the best in the NFL. Mentally, he's a work in progress but the improvement in his last two games is noticeable. In the end, I think the Cowboys just have too many weapons for this weak Panther defense to handle.
You know who else it's "make or break" time for? Cam Newton. He seems to have taken a step back from his sensational rookie season. He's locking on to his first receiver too much - a trend I noticed early last year, but one he was able to overcome in the first half of last season based on pure talent alone. He needs to be more decisive in the pocket and he needs to learn how to look off safeties. He's so incredibly talented that I think the tendency is for him to get lazy with the details. Unfortunately for him, everyone in the NFL is really talented and as they say, "the devil's in the details." This talented Cowboys secondary will be a very good test for Newton coming off a bye week where, hopefully, he worked on correcting those mistakes.
Saints 17 - Buccaneers 27:
The Saints get Jonathan Vilma back but I don't think he'll be enough to help this defense. On offense they will be without Jimmy Graham and the Saints generally don't do as well outdoors as they do in the friendly confines of the Superdome. I expect the going to be tougher than one would expect against a Buccaneers defense that is coming off a bye week. I like teams coming off a bye against a divisional opponent. The Saints have not been able to come with a running game despite their stable of backs and I don't see that changing this week against a great defensive front seven.
I expect the Buccaneers to come out attacking and taking advantage of the individual match-ups against the Saints. Usually when your team is over-matched on talent on defense, teams will do one of two things - they will either play to limit the damage (coaches like Dick Jauron have employed this philosophy in the past) or they will be very aggressive in order to get to the quarterback and often they might be over-aggressive. I expect the latter approach by the Saints and to counter it, I expect the Bucs to utilize quick throws and screens to Doug Martin and open up the down-field passing game.
Packers 27 - Rams 13:
If the Rams had a healthy Danny Amendola and one more decent receiving option, this would be a very good game. Unfortunately for them, they don't and I don't expect the Rams to be able to keep up with a Packers offense that has found its groove. The Rams defense is very good but often plays from behind and is on the field too much to have consistent success. The Packers will be without nose tackle BJ Raji and I think Jeff Fisher will do his best to run the ball and keep it out of Rodgers' hands - but he doesn't need much time to score as evidenced by his surgery of the previously vaunted Texans defense.
Redskins 24 - Giants 27:
The Giants typically don't do well against the NFC West so I was tempted to pick the Redskins here. But the Giants defense finally came alive last week on the west coast and I think they keep the momentum going against the explosive and ever-dangerous RGIII. The Redskins, in my opinion, are playing with fire by allowing RGIII to run so much. They've already had one big scare two weeks ago when he took a big hit and had "a mild concussion," which, I've been told, does not exist. You either have the symptoms of a concussion or you don't. These symptoms may be "mild" but that won't be clear until you've given it a couple of days to work itself out. The Redskins called it a "mild concussion" almost immediately after the game. Anyways, with his frame and the exposure to big hits, the Redskins won't be so lucky next time.
The Giants might be forced to limit a red hot Ahmad Bradshaw but they have enough weapons in the running game to keep up the success on the ground. Hakeem Nicks finally seems to be turning a corner in his recovery and I expect him to tear up this sub-par Redskins secondary. The Giants offensive line has not given up a sack in three games so this will be a good match up to watch against a Redskins pass rush that is without Brian Orakpo.
P.S. - I plan on doing a more in depth post on the development of RGIII v. Andrew Luck midway through the season. Some of my points may surprise you.
Ravens 27 - Texans 24:
A month ago i would've picked this as a 10-13 ball game but injuries have piled up quickly on both defenses - probably the Ravens more so than the Texans - making this somewhat of a high scoring game. The Texans will surely test this leaky run defense with Arian Foster early and often which might open things up for Owen Daniels in the play-action passing game. Daniels, by the way, seems to be Schaub's #1 target with Andre Johnson being mostly double-covered.
The Ravens need to get back to force-feeding the football to Ray Rice. Flacco is out of rhythm in the passing game and the best way to get him back on track is to give him some high percentage throws to begin the game. With Clay Matthews out, I expect the Ravens to pick on the Texans linebackers with crossing routes and this will hopefully draw the safeties down and open up the deep ball to Torrey Smith. I know Flacco struggles on the road but hopefully Terrell Suggs returning to the lineup gives this team enough of a boost to outlast the Texans.
Titans 27- Bills 31:
This game has the potential to be a shoot out, however its not because either offense is bursting with talent. It's just that both defenses have been downright atrocious against the run and the pass so far. The Bills play an attacking type of run defense where they try to hit the ball carrier before he gets going. However, when players don't maintain gap discipline while maintaining this approach to stopping the run, they can give up big chunks of yardage. And then you add Chris Johnson to the equation who has the potential to take it to the house on any given play and seems to have found his groove after a rough start to the season. Needless to say this could be a boom or bust day for the Bills run defense and the Titans running game.
The Bills, of course, have their own tandem of backs to run the ball down Tennessee's throat and they're much better at run blocking and the Titans aren't that good at defending the run either. Both pass defenses have suffered as well and the Titans get Kenny Britt at full speed for the first time this year which is why I expect this to be a shoot out.I'm giving the edge to the Bills, who usually play much better at home, coming off a huge "gut-check" victory in Arizona.
Browns 24 - Colts 21:
Coming off a huge emotional win against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, Andrew Luck and the Colts got steam rolled by the Jets?! You know, the Jets of the all-pro running back Shonn Greene and quarterback Mark Sanchez. Right. And the development of young Andrew Luck goes on. The Jets completely blanketed Reggie Wayne and Luck was flustered when he couldn't find his top option. The Browns got Joe Haden back last week and you can bet they will try the same strategy with him. I expect the Colts to lean more on the running game and the secondary weapons (Fleener, Allen, Hilton, Avery etc.) if the Browns employ the same strategy and take away Reggie Wayne.
On the flip side, the Colts will be without Robert Mathis again and all-pro Dwight Freeney will have to take on all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas. Brandon Weeden does his best work in a clean pocket and I expect him to be clean for much of the game. The Browns' young receivers are showing signs of development, particularly Josh Gordon. Now he needs to show that he's not a one-trick pony and run some short and intermediate routes for completions. This will be somewhat of a shootout but I give the edge to the team with the better defense and running game and that team is the Browns.
Jets 20 - Patriots 35 (Lock of the Week):
If the Jets had Revis, Mark Sanchez was passing well, and the Jets defense was back to 2009 form, then they would have a good shot at winning this game. Sadly, for them, none of these things are true and right now I pick the Patriots 10 out of 10 times. The Pats are coming off a huge loss against the Seahawks and are motivated at home. Rex Ryan does his talking in the week leading up to the game, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady do their talking on the field by putting up points in bunches. The Pats got talented tight end Aaron Hernandez back last week but he was being phased into the offense. This week, I expect more snaps for Hernandez and thus more match up problems for the Jets. The Pats have too many weapons and have shown this year that they can even run the ball to earn a victory.
The Pats defense has been excellent against the run thus far but has some major issues in the back end against the deep ball. I still don't expect Mark Sanchez to have too much success, asides from maybe a play or two. The Jets had majority of their running success last week up the middle and the Pats will have Vince Wilfork waiting for Shonn Greene. Honestly, even if the Jets had Revis, I'd have hard time not picking the Patriots in this situation.
Jaguars 13 - Raiders 24:
The Raiders found their pass rush last week against Matt Ryan and the Falcons and almost pulled off the upset. This week they get to go back home and face an underwhelming Jaguars team. Carson Palmer gets a healthy squad of receivers this week and the Raider running game is still a work in progress. I expect the Raiders to have moderate success against this Jaguars defense that has been equally underwhelming. I just don't think the Jags have the weapons on offense, or a quarterback for that matter, that can take advantage of the holes in the Raiders defense.
Steelers 20 - Bengals 17:
The Steelers cannot be this bad. They've been terrible away from Heinz field this year and they cannot run the ball to save their lives. They've also been hit hard with injuries, especially on the offensive line. With the running backs also banged up, the expectation would be to put the game in Big Ben's hands with the passing game. But I think the Steelers get stubborn about running the ball and plod their way with Jonathan Dwyer, Barron Batch etc. to a hard-hitting, low-scoring, divisional victory away from home.
The Bengals' passing game has been clicking thus far into the season but the same cannot be said about their running game. The signing of BJGE has been a bust so far and the Bengals lost Bernard Scott last week. Third-down specialist Brian Leonard is also out for this game. I expect Big Ben and the Steelers to be able to overcome the offensive line injuries better than the Bengals to overcome the lack of a running game. Coming off an upset at the hands of the Titans, I think the Steelers will be motivated and focused to leave Cincinnati with a victory.
Lions 17 - Bears 28:
The Bears are coming off a bye, and now get the Lions at home on MNF. This Bears defense is impressive and is hitting on all cylinders..the Lions, meanwhile, have been pretty bad on defense thus far. I don't know what has happened to this defensive line. They have so much talent there but they don't seem to be getting it done and the rest of the back seven has never been that impressive. The Bears have had major offensive line issues but with the bye week, hopefully, they worked on their pass protection woes. Matt Forte has done well against the Lions in his career and I expect that to continue on Monday night.
Matt Stafford looks ordinary this season. His footwork has been terrible and thus his accuracy has suffered. I realize that the Lions need a receiver across from Calvin Johnson to step up but I think this is more of a Stafford issue than a #2 wide receiver issue. To compound this problem, the Lions do not have a running game. I was surprised when they didn't sign some veteran insurance this off-season behind an inexperienced Mikel LeShoure and a brittle Kevin Smith. I know they had Jahvid Best on the PUP but they would've been foolish to depend on him being active. Anyways, I give Lions credit for pulling off an upset last week against the reeling Eagles but Soldier Field won't be as friendly this week.
Last Week's Picks: 8-6
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