Saturday, October 6, 2012

Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.

Already picked: Rams 23 - Cardinals 20 (Result: Rams 17 - Cardinals 3)

Eagles 17 - Steelers 24: Pittsburgh coming off a bye week, at home. If the Eagles weren't so talented, this would be my lock of the week. The Steelers get Mendenhall back, and they need him badly to get their running game going. The Eagles have been excellent against the run thus far so this will be a match-up to watch. If Pittsburgh is able to control the line of scrimmage on offense, and pressure Vick with their returning superstars Polamalu and Harrison, they should be walk away with a win. For the Eagles, Vick would have to be mistake free for them to have a chance, and they need to ride McCoy to wear down that defense and slow down that pass rush. I just don't see those things happening, which is why I'm picking Pittsburgh.

Packers 31 - Colts 21: The Packers have major issues on their offensive line and if Dwight Freeney (Questionable) can be a meaningful contributor it might force the Packers to dial up quick plays and lean on the running game. I expect the Packers to keep with their up-tempo offense, especially with Jennings missing this game. I saw Rodgers finally get into a rhythm last week without Jennings in the line-up so I'm expecting him to be more comfortable in the pocket. I think the Packers go up early and then turn their pass rush loose but I see Luck and the Colts get some garbage-time points. The Colts, by the way, will be without their head coach Chuck Pagano who was diagnosed with Leukemia earlier this week so they will be playing with heavy hearts. Unfortunately they'll be going up against a very motivated Packers squad.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Browns 10 - Giants 28: The Giants lost a heart-breaking division game to the Eagles last week and now get to go back home and face an underwhelming Browns squad and a rookie Quarterback. This score might be even more lop-sided but I think they win by at least two scores. Until Weeden learns how to handle NFL pressure and make accurate throws the Browns passing game will be hot and cold. Plus its not like they have any dynamic weapons on offense besides, maybe, Richardson. What's worse is that the Browns are still without Haden and their defense, so far, has been pedestrian. Even without Hakeem Nicks, the Giants have plenty of weapons as long as Eli Manning is slinging it.

Falcons 31 - Redskins 24: This has the makings of a shootout. Matt Ryan has this offense humming and asides from a monster Week 1, they haven't even gotten Julio Jones going yet. Jones, who was slowed down last week with a laceration on his hand (plus he was double-covered for most of the game), says he's recovered completely so I'm expecting this Atlanta offense to be even more dangerous than it has been. And the Redskins defensive backfield might be the worst in the NFL. At least RGIII will give them a fighting chance to keep pace.

Dolphins 21 - Bengals 24: The Dolphins have shown that they can move the ball on offense, despite mediocre weapons at receiver. Brian Hartline is having a renaissance season, and if Reggie Bush is over his injury this offense should be able to take advantage of an underachieving Bengals defense. On the other side, the Dolphins are excellent at stopping the run but give up a lot of passing yards. AJ Green and Andy Dalton have been on fire for the last month so they will move this offense through the air for the majority of the afternoon. When it comes down to it, this game is a lot closer than I think most people expect. I'm giving the edge to the home team with better weapons all around.

Ravens 31 - Chiefs 14: This game is another good candidate for lock of the week but the Chiefs defense will at least give the Ravens some resistance. I know this game is in Arrowhead, which is a very tough venue for away teams, but I just don't see how the Chiefs can slow down this no-huddle offense right now which is hitting on all cylinders. So far, the no-huddle has been run efficiently. As long as the Ravens continue on that path, they should come away with an easy win in Kansas City. Cassel has been showing us for the past couple of years that he is a mediocre QB who is a product of the New England Patriot system. I think the Chiefs are very close to nearing the end of the line with him. The problem is, they have Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi behind him....yeah I'd be sticking with Cassel too.

Seahawks 24 - Panthers 28: The Panthers finally got Cam Newton going last week but came up short in the end against the undefeated Falcons. Russell Wilson is no Matt Ryan and I expect the Panthers to be able to zero in on stopping Lynch and come away with a victory. The Seahawks are very good at all three levels on defense but Cam seemed to be hitting his stride last week so just a gut feeling that the Panthers get a win here.

Bears 27 - Jaguars 14: The Jags entire offense is Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Chicago Bears are pretty good on defense against the run and the pass. The Bears are also very good at rushing the passer, meanwhile Gabbert might be the worst QB in the face of pressure. If it wasn't for the Bears offensive line issues and their inability to consistently protect Cutler I would be projecting an even bigger win for Chicago.

Broncos 24 - Patriots 34: The Patriots got into their offensive rhythm last week and beat up on my Buffalo Bills. This team is still very dangerous and the Broncos have been only mediocre in pass coverage thus far. I see Welker, Gronk, and Brandon Lloyd having good games. The Pats defense is much better on short to intermediate throws than it is on deep throws. So far the Broncos seem to be shying away from too many deep throws anyways so this this plays into the Patriots strength. I think it will be a close one in Foxboro, but the home team wins here.

Bills 18 - 49ers 31: The 49ers are a top 5 team, and are one of two complete football teams in my opinion. They will pound the rock, and throw off play action and boot legs on offense; we already know how good their defense is. The Bills, fresh off a divisional whipping at the hands of the Patriots, travel cross country going up against a much better team with an inconsistent QB. This will be another early exit for the San Fransisco starters.

Titans 13 - Vikings 27: The Titans running game finally got on track last week but a good chunk of CJ?K's yardage was in garbage time. I'm not buying yet. The Vikes are very good against the run and with Locker being injured their pass defense gets to face an over-the-hill Hasselbeck. On the other side, the Titans are horrendous on defense and the Vikings are judicious with the football on offense. I see the Vikings dominating this game, but maybe not on the scoreboard.

Chargers 24 - Saints 31: These teams are actually much closer to each other than their respective records would indicate. I just don't see the Saints going 0-5. I think Drew Brees pretty much wills this team to a victory. The Saints are a bottom-5 defense, but the Chargers aren't exactly lighting the defensive rankings on fire either. This will be somewhat of a shootout and my gut says Saints.

Texans 28 - Jets 14: I think this could be a trap game for the Texans and maybe the Jets even show some signs of life in the first half but the talent disparity is just too large between these two teams. The Jets will be without their best defensive player in Revis, and arguably their best offensive player in Santonio Holmes. Plus Mark Sanchez is terrible and the Jets defense isn't much better. On the other side, the Texans are the other complete team I was referring to earlier. Their defense is elite and so is their running game, and Schaub will keep defenses honest by throwing it deep to Andre Johnson a couple of times.

Bye: Raiders, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs

Last week's picks:  9-6

No comments:

Post a Comment