Former Stanford QB - Andrew Luck has been the consensus #1 overall pick for the 2012 NFL Draft since he was born (OK fine, maybe it was just since the last draft, but it did feel like forever). And then, out of nowhere, 2011 Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III from Baylor has entered the conversation at #1 overall. A comparison of both players after the jump.
Andrew Luck
Physical
Luck has everything you want in a pocket-passer in today's NFL. He's not the most physically gifted QB I've seen - I think that prize goes to RGIII. But the more tape I watch of him, the more I am impressed by his physical talents. His footwork is amazing. His quarterbacks coach in the pros is going to get a player who is light years ahead of other rookie signal-callers he may have come across in the past. Luck is mechanically sound. He's got a quick release, and delivers the ball with extraordinary accuracy; he's especially excellent in those short to medium range throws. He has deceptive speed; he won't outrace Griffin but he can outrun most linebackers and safeties in the NFL. One "flaw" that a lot of "experts" seem to be focusing on is his supposedly awkward delivery at certain times. Honestly, I see it as a plus for him. He has a pretty good delivery for the most part. The awkward delivery comes out sometimes when he sees a window open or close unexpectedly and really is just a result of him adjusting to what he sees to deliver the ball accurately.
His only flaw, physically, that I've noticed so far is that his arm strength and accuracy on the deep balls isn't as good as it is elsewhere - but this is splitting hairs really.
Mental
Where Griffin is the most physically-gifted athlete I've seen coming into the NFL, Luck might be the most cerebral. He is extremely meticulous and has great attention to detail. He breaks down tape like an NFL veteran.
The fact that Stanford ran a pro-style offense will be extremely beneficial to Luck. He is already really good at going through progressions and locating the open receiver in a quick and efficient manner. He's methodical in his approach and he is decisive.
Most of Luck's mistakes come from over-thinking. No player is perfect all the time. When I see Luck make a mistake I see someone who is so far ahead of his competition on the field but he's like a science geek in a lab and he just wants to see if he can make that really good formula even better which usually results in a mistake.
Intangibles
I think he's also a good leader. He has enough confidence and humility to come in and take charge of an NFL team. I haven't read or heard anything negative about his character. Both him and Griffin are squeaky clean prospects as far as off-the-field stuff.
Overall
Luck a student of the game and he is the son of former Houston Oilers quarterback Oliver Luck; he's been learning the three-step drop since he came out of the womb. His approach to the game is cerebral and as good as he has been, he is just as humble. If you think about his college career, the spotlight has been on him for two full seasons. He wasn't the first potential #1 overall pick to turn down the pros and stay another year in college. But, as far as I can recall, he's the first one to actually still be locked into that #1 overall spot his senior year. I think that takes a great deal of mental toughness and stamina but Luck makes it seem very natural and easy. He doesn't have many weaknesses in his game, and his work ethic coupled with his hunger to learn makes him the safest prospect I have seen. In my opinion, he might be a better prospect than Peyton Manning was coming out in to the NFL (bold statement I know).
Robert Griffin III
Physical
RGIII might be the most physically gifted athlete I have seen come into the NFL. When it comes to speed, acceleration, arm strength, accuracy, no other player in this draft has his combination - not even Andrew Luck. He is the fastest. He can throw it harder. He can throw it farther and he can put it on your chest. His accuracy in the short to middle routes isn't that great. But he understands deep ball accuracy and has great vision when throwing deep. Really its his arm strength that allows him to throw it deep that well.
His footwork is pretty good, but it'll be interesting to see how it will translate to the NFL where he won't be taking most of his snaps out of the shotgun (or maybe Shanahan has something up his sleeve). The NFL is starting to adopt more college-style offenses. The old adage that "you can't do that in the pros" is becoming increasingly false. Now I'm not saying NFL teams are going to run an option-style offense as their base offense game in and game out, unless your starting QB is Tebow. But offensive coordinators in the pros are showing more willingness to take some of these plays that maybe 10-15 years ago you'd never see in the NFL. The Wildcat, Option, QB draws, these have all been used with much more frequency in the NFL in the last decade or so. This new willingness to use some of these "college-style" plays is going to greatly benefit a player like Griffin - much like it benefited Cam Newton last year.
RGIII to run over any linebackers in the NFL anytime soon.
Another question mark I have, and this isn't really a negative because we just don't have enough information, is that he didn't play in a pro-style offense. At Baylor, he took snaps out of shotgun for the most part and he ran an up-tempo offense there. In some ways, it was a little gimmicky and NFL defensive coordinators are going to be much more prepared for those quick snaps than college coordinators were. I also just don't know how well his footwork or pocket presence will hold up when he's dropping back from the center for most of his snaps. Now these aren't necessarily negatives on Griffin, but rather just question marks. It could be very well that Griffin won't have any issue running a pro-style offense. But when you look at his stats as a passer and a runner, you do have to consider that some of those have to be attributed to things that will likely not transfer to the NFL.
Mental
He has a very good feel for the rush. Feeling the rush, as opposed to looking at it, is such a subtle thing but it will save a quarterback's life in the pros. Keeping your eyes down the field when a 270 lb guy is sprinting directly at you takes an incredible amount of discipline.
He's mentally strong. Not many things are going to rattle him. I think Griffin can come in from Day 1 and command a huddle. I think he's a natural leader, and that's something you just can't teach. Now, you don't have to be one of these "natural leaders" to be a great QB in the NFL. I think everyone has a little bit of leadership in them, some are just better at exuding it than others. Eli Manning, for example, always seemed a little timid his first few years, but nobody will argue that his leadership has gotten much better since then.
One of Griffin's biggest strengths, in my humble opinion, is that he understands how to locate and exploit the opposition's weaknesses. He's a coach's dream in that sense. I imagine NFL coaches won't have to tell him the "why" when it comes to drawing new plays. He gets it. I think he's far more advanced as a passer than Micheal Vick when he came out of college. I think Griffin is the type of QB that a coach can give some leeway to because he can handle it. He won't have to be coddled too much in the NFL, even as a rookie. I think that will open up the playbook for his team (read: Redskins).
Intangibles
Top picks in the NFL, nowadays, are extremely scrutinized. I have heard nothing about Griffin but good things as far as character is concerned. He seems confident but humble - something an NFL team will want in the man who will be the face of their franchise for a long time. He also seems hungry and I have heard and read nothing but good things about his work ethic. This isn't another Ryan Leaf in the making by any means.
Overall
Griffin is entirely worth the #1 pick in this draft and any other draft. He has amazing potential and as a QB he will be touching the ball on every offensive play - this is generally a recipe for success. He's a hard worker, a true student of the game, and has plus speed to boot. Most of my question-marks on him have to do with his height, weight, and occasionally his short to medium range accuracy.
Conclusion
The question is "who should go #1 overall?" and the answer, for me, is Andrew Luck. RGIII is more physically gifted and may have the potential, if he stays healthy, to have an even better career than Luck. But as I said above, Luck is the safest prospect I have seen come out. I don't see how an NFL team could pass on him. When you think about the Colts, they just went through a disappointing season, one they haven't suffered in a long time, and just lost one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Peyton Manning isn't going to be easy to replace but I think if there's one person who can come in and speed up that process of turning the chapter, it's Andrew Luck. In any other year, RGIII is the #1 overall pick, but unfortunately he is going up against Luck. Plus I feel like "Luck", "Horseshoe", "Colt" just feels right together.
I think Luck will do a better job making Colts fans move past the way Manning was handled by the front office and ownership than RGIII. Again these are not knocks on RGIII, but rather just plus points for Luck. I think both of them will have excellent careers, and like I said it is possible that RGIII puts up better numbers depending on what type of offense he plays in. But in today's NFL, I think Luck has the most tools I want in my quarterback - the height, weight, accuracy, footwork, familiarity of the pro scheme, and work-ethic - which makes him the safest pick at #1.
Andrew Luck
Physical
Luck has everything you want in a pocket-passer in today's NFL. He's not the most physically gifted QB I've seen - I think that prize goes to RGIII. But the more tape I watch of him, the more I am impressed by his physical talents. His footwork is amazing. His quarterbacks coach in the pros is going to get a player who is light years ahead of other rookie signal-callers he may have come across in the past. Luck is mechanically sound. He's got a quick release, and delivers the ball with extraordinary accuracy; he's especially excellent in those short to medium range throws. He has deceptive speed; he won't outrace Griffin but he can outrun most linebackers and safeties in the NFL. One "flaw" that a lot of "experts" seem to be focusing on is his supposedly awkward delivery at certain times. Honestly, I see it as a plus for him. He has a pretty good delivery for the most part. The awkward delivery comes out sometimes when he sees a window open or close unexpectedly and really is just a result of him adjusting to what he sees to deliver the ball accurately.
His only flaw, physically, that I've noticed so far is that his arm strength and accuracy on the deep balls isn't as good as it is elsewhere - but this is splitting hairs really.
Mental
Where Griffin is the most physically-gifted athlete I've seen coming into the NFL, Luck might be the most cerebral. He is extremely meticulous and has great attention to detail. He breaks down tape like an NFL veteran.
The fact that Stanford ran a pro-style offense will be extremely beneficial to Luck. He is already really good at going through progressions and locating the open receiver in a quick and efficient manner. He's methodical in his approach and he is decisive.
Most of Luck's mistakes come from over-thinking. No player is perfect all the time. When I see Luck make a mistake I see someone who is so far ahead of his competition on the field but he's like a science geek in a lab and he just wants to see if he can make that really good formula even better which usually results in a mistake.
Intangibles
I think he's also a good leader. He has enough confidence and humility to come in and take charge of an NFL team. I haven't read or heard anything negative about his character. Both him and Griffin are squeaky clean prospects as far as off-the-field stuff.
Overall
Luck a student of the game and he is the son of former Houston Oilers quarterback Oliver Luck; he's been learning the three-step drop since he came out of the womb. His approach to the game is cerebral and as good as he has been, he is just as humble. If you think about his college career, the spotlight has been on him for two full seasons. He wasn't the first potential #1 overall pick to turn down the pros and stay another year in college. But, as far as I can recall, he's the first one to actually still be locked into that #1 overall spot his senior year. I think that takes a great deal of mental toughness and stamina but Luck makes it seem very natural and easy. He doesn't have many weaknesses in his game, and his work ethic coupled with his hunger to learn makes him the safest prospect I have seen. In my opinion, he might be a better prospect than Peyton Manning was coming out in to the NFL (bold statement I know).
Robert Griffin III
Physical
RGIII might be the most physically gifted athlete I have seen come into the NFL. When it comes to speed, acceleration, arm strength, accuracy, no other player in this draft has his combination - not even Andrew Luck. He is the fastest. He can throw it harder. He can throw it farther and he can put it on your chest. His accuracy in the short to middle routes isn't that great. But he understands deep ball accuracy and has great vision when throwing deep. Really its his arm strength that allows him to throw it deep that well.
His footwork is pretty good, but it'll be interesting to see how it will translate to the NFL where he won't be taking most of his snaps out of the shotgun (or maybe Shanahan has something up his sleeve). The NFL is starting to adopt more college-style offenses. The old adage that "you can't do that in the pros" is becoming increasingly false. Now I'm not saying NFL teams are going to run an option-style offense as their base offense game in and game out, unless your starting QB is Tebow. But offensive coordinators in the pros are showing more willingness to take some of these plays that maybe 10-15 years ago you'd never see in the NFL. The Wildcat, Option, QB draws, these have all been used with much more frequency in the NFL in the last decade or so. This new willingness to use some of these "college-style" plays is going to greatly benefit a player like Griffin - much like it benefited Cam Newton last year.
RGIII to run over any linebackers in the NFL anytime soon.
Another question mark I have, and this isn't really a negative because we just don't have enough information, is that he didn't play in a pro-style offense. At Baylor, he took snaps out of shotgun for the most part and he ran an up-tempo offense there. In some ways, it was a little gimmicky and NFL defensive coordinators are going to be much more prepared for those quick snaps than college coordinators were. I also just don't know how well his footwork or pocket presence will hold up when he's dropping back from the center for most of his snaps. Now these aren't necessarily negatives on Griffin, but rather just question marks. It could be very well that Griffin won't have any issue running a pro-style offense. But when you look at his stats as a passer and a runner, you do have to consider that some of those have to be attributed to things that will likely not transfer to the NFL.
Mental
He has a very good feel for the rush. Feeling the rush, as opposed to looking at it, is such a subtle thing but it will save a quarterback's life in the pros. Keeping your eyes down the field when a 270 lb guy is sprinting directly at you takes an incredible amount of discipline.
He's mentally strong. Not many things are going to rattle him. I think Griffin can come in from Day 1 and command a huddle. I think he's a natural leader, and that's something you just can't teach. Now, you don't have to be one of these "natural leaders" to be a great QB in the NFL. I think everyone has a little bit of leadership in them, some are just better at exuding it than others. Eli Manning, for example, always seemed a little timid his first few years, but nobody will argue that his leadership has gotten much better since then.
One of Griffin's biggest strengths, in my humble opinion, is that he understands how to locate and exploit the opposition's weaknesses. He's a coach's dream in that sense. I imagine NFL coaches won't have to tell him the "why" when it comes to drawing new plays. He gets it. I think he's far more advanced as a passer than Micheal Vick when he came out of college. I think Griffin is the type of QB that a coach can give some leeway to because he can handle it. He won't have to be coddled too much in the NFL, even as a rookie. I think that will open up the playbook for his team (read: Redskins).
Intangibles
Top picks in the NFL, nowadays, are extremely scrutinized. I have heard nothing about Griffin but good things as far as character is concerned. He seems confident but humble - something an NFL team will want in the man who will be the face of their franchise for a long time. He also seems hungry and I have heard and read nothing but good things about his work ethic. This isn't another Ryan Leaf in the making by any means.
Overall
Griffin is entirely worth the #1 pick in this draft and any other draft. He has amazing potential and as a QB he will be touching the ball on every offensive play - this is generally a recipe for success. He's a hard worker, a true student of the game, and has plus speed to boot. Most of my question-marks on him have to do with his height, weight, and occasionally his short to medium range accuracy.
Conclusion
The question is "who should go #1 overall?" and the answer, for me, is Andrew Luck. RGIII is more physically gifted and may have the potential, if he stays healthy, to have an even better career than Luck. But as I said above, Luck is the safest prospect I have seen come out. I don't see how an NFL team could pass on him. When you think about the Colts, they just went through a disappointing season, one they haven't suffered in a long time, and just lost one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Peyton Manning isn't going to be easy to replace but I think if there's one person who can come in and speed up that process of turning the chapter, it's Andrew Luck. In any other year, RGIII is the #1 overall pick, but unfortunately he is going up against Luck. Plus I feel like "Luck", "Horseshoe", "Colt" just feels right together.
I think Luck will do a better job making Colts fans move past the way Manning was handled by the front office and ownership than RGIII. Again these are not knocks on RGIII, but rather just plus points for Luck. I think both of them will have excellent careers, and like I said it is possible that RGIII puts up better numbers depending on what type of offense he plays in. But in today's NFL, I think Luck has the most tools I want in my quarterback - the height, weight, accuracy, footwork, familiarity of the pro scheme, and work-ethic - which makes him the safest pick at #1.
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