Thursday, November 1, 2012

RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (part 1)

First off, I hope you were not too affected by "Superstorm Sandy." I imagine if you were, you probably wouldn't be reading this blog until maybe next week. In any case, I hope you and your loved ones are all safe and sound and are not too inconvenienced in the aftermath of the storm.

I kinda took this week to look at some things on my blog and have decided on a new format. I won't be doing the weekly picks and predictions or the week in review. Frankly, I just don't get the opportunity to watch as many games as I'd like over the week and you can probably get posts like that on any of the major sports sites. Instead, I'd like to delve a little deeper into a particular team or player's performance based on what I see for that week or even over a few weeks.

In light of the new format, I thought a good way to kick it off would be a mid-season review between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III - the #1 and 2 overall pick, respectively, in this year's draft.

Their careers will forever be connected, partly due to the fact that they are incredibly talented and partly because it is very rare when two slam-dunk franchise quarterbacks come out in the same draft and get drafted #1 and 2 overall. Last time this happened was in 1998 when, ironically enough, the Colts picked Peyton Manning #1 overall and the Chargers took Ryan Leaf #2. The rest, as they say, is history. (A little caveat - I know there were actually three quarterbacks picked in the top 3 the following year but I would argue that none of those three had the hype and hoopla that Manning or Leaf had the previous year. It was more of a case of high demand vs. high supply). Anyways, back to my original point - Manning became the future hall of famer as we know him today and Leaf floundered ("floundered" does not even do it justice) and San Diego was looking for a quarterback very soon thereafter. Today, Manning is leading the Broncos to a division lead and Leaf is out of football and amid various legal troubles.

Anyways, back to Luck and RGIII. Coming into the draft process, Luck and RGIII were head and shoulders above any other quarterback prospect - in my eyes anyways. However, I liked Luck better  you can go back and look at my pre-draft posts on Luck v. RGIII. At the time, I concluded that Luck was the safer prospect and more worthy of the #1 overall pick based on his high floor and high ceiling, whereas RGIII had more risks involved despite having a (slightly) higher ceiling. So halfway through the season (well, technically Luck has played one less game than RGIII), I have some interesting thoughts on both of these guys.

Going into this season I though RGIII had much better weapons around him and expected a better statistical season (barring injury) than Luck who inherited one of the worst teams in recent history. See, the Colts "earned" the first pick whereas the Redskins traded for the second pick in the draft so some level of roster talent gap was going to be inherent. The Redskins also got RGIII pretty good weapons in the off season by signing Pierre Garcon (ironically previously of the Colts) and Josh Morgan to inflated free agent deals. At the time, they represented a better talent pool than Reggie Wayne and the rag tag of Colts wide receivers. Washington also had a younger, more talented offensive line and made some key additions on defense as well. They have the wallet of Daniel Snyder and the offensive genius of Mike Shanahan. The Colts stuck to more unheralded pieces like G.M. Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano. The reason all of this is relevant is because in the cases of possibly franchise-defining players like Luck and Griffin, it's important to understand the context into which they arrived at their respective teams.

Anyways, the Redskins, on paper, were a much better team than the Colts and I expected Washington to have a better record and Griffin to have better stats than Luck and the Colts. So far Griffin does have better overall stats than Luck. Griffin has a 66.8% completion rating whereas Luck is far behind with 55.6%. They both have 8 passing touchdowns but Griffin only has 3 INTs to Luck's 8 INTs. When it comes to running the ball Griffin has, predictably, bested Luck thus far - 476 yards, 6.8 avg, and 6 TDs v. 143 yards, 5.5 avg, and 3 TDs.I never like to rest my case on stats because I think they are somewhat overrated, but as a starter they do a pretty good job. So using this info above, I will dig a little deeper in my next post.

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