Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited
match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance
to.
Already picked: Ravens 21 - Browns 14 (Result: Ravens 23 - Browns 16)
Patriots 24 - Bills 28: Upset special! The Bills finally have the defensive line to pressure Brady without a blitz. They've always had a tough time covering Welker and tight-ends in general so Gronkowski should have a good day. But their run defense is much better this year; meanwhile their run game might end up being a mixture of Jackson, Spiller and Choice with the first two questionable for this game. This game will come down to which Fitzpatrick shows up. For the Pats, they are missing Hernandez and now Mankins; apparently Gronk is questionable as well but I don't buy that he'll miss the game.
49ers 27 - Jets 14: The Jets cannot run the ball to save their lives and their passing game isn't much better. The 49ers, I think, will have a defensive score in this one with the way Sanchez is throwing the ball. It's a home game - which means if Sanchez stinks it up we very well could see the Tebow chants grow louder. As I've mentioned before, the Niners are a complete team and they were upset last week by the Vikings - look for them to respond in a big way.
Seahawks 17 - Rams 20: I know the Seahawks have had the winning edge in this matchup for a long time but this is where the Rams turn the tide. The hawks got away with one on Monday night and after such an emotional game this one seems like a trap game. Based on pure matchups, the Seahawks would win this 9 out of 10 times. But I just have a gut feeling that the Rams pull this one out.
Panthers 17 - Falcons 34: This Panther defense is horrendous against the run and the pass. And then there's Matt Ryan and his boys who are on fire. Yeah - talk about the perfect storm! Cam Newton has been regressing thus far this year and that Falcon defense is playing great football right now. I think this one will be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Vikings 20 - Lions 31: The Lions offense finally found a running game last week and Stafford was on the injury report earlier in the week but he'll be fine. This offense is still finding its groove and the same can likely be said about the defense as well. The Vikings get Jerome Simpson back, which will help stretch the defense and open up holes for Harvin, Rudolph, and Peterson. I think the Lions get the home support behind them and start reminding us of last year's team.
Chargers 34 - Chiefs 17: The Chiefs upset the Saints last week, but this Charger defense is likely peeved off after getting sliced up by Matt Ryan last week. Cassel is no Ryan and this Chiefs offense runs through Jamal Charles so the Chargers should be able to stack 8 in the box and focus on stopping him. Ryan Mathews will finally get it going for the Bolts and they will win at Arrowhead (one of the toughest venues for an away team).
Titans 10 - Texans 28: The Texans are the best team in football right now and the Titans are a mess on both sides of the ball. This one is another game that will likely be done by the 3rd quarter. The Titans cannot run block to save their lives - Chris Johnson's average per carry before contact is 0.5 yards. Let that marinate for a minute. He goes, on average, half a yard before he takes contact by the defense. The Texans will likely go up early and milk the clock down with their two stud running backs.
Bengals 20 - Jaguars 23: Another slight upset here - the Bengals have been terrible at defending the pass thus far and the Jaguars are at home which will hopefully keep Gabbert from making too many mistakes. The Jags will play conservative offense, as they have thus far, and ride Jones-drew to a last second victory.
Raiders 17 - Broncos 28: An old-time division rivalry. I think this is the week that Peyton Manning finally gets into groove and gives them solid play for all four quarters. The Bronco defense has been pretty good so far but they will be without linebacker Joe Mays so I can see McFadden having a pretty good game. But outside of that, the Broncos will show us that they are pretty good. They've been somewhat unlucky thus far having played two top-5 teams the last two weeks.
Dolphins 16 - Cardinals 30: The Cardinals are for real and their 3-0 record is not a mirage in the desert. If they get solid play from Kolb and if Ryan Williams can give them solid production on the ground, their defense will be able to keep them in most, if not all, games. The Dolphins just don't have the weapons to match-up against this defense right now and it doesn't help that Bush, their best offensive threat, is banged up right now.
Redskins 17 - Buccaneers 23: The Bucs have also been victims of a tough schedule thus far. They played the Giants down to the wire and then went blow for blow with an ultra-talented Cowboys squad. They, surprisingly, have the best run defense in football right now and Gerald McCoy has been a break through player for them thus far. The skins cannot keep trotting RGIII out on those option plays and exposing the rookie to big hits. They also cannot cover anyone right now so I think the Bucs should be able to come out with a win in this one.
Saints 27 - Packers 34: This has the makings of a shootout. The Saints are not as much of a machine on offense as they used to be but they're still pretty good - on the other hand they cannot stop anybody right now. The Packers are coming off of a heart-breaking controversial loss to the Seahawks on Monday night so look for them to be fired up for this one in front of their home crowd. Who would've thought that three weeks into the season these two teams would have a combined record of 1-5?
Giants 28 - Eagles 25: Another great division match-up, the Eagles might be the most over-rated 2-1 team right now. They definitely have the talent, but its the fact that they've managed to win despite a minus-6 turnover ration is mind-boggling! They can't keep that up and expect to come out with a win. The Giants will take care of business early, even without Hakeem Nicks, and the Eagles will make it close late but come up short.
Bears 17 - Cowboys 31: The Bears have been excellent at rushing the passer thus fur but they also have been terrible at pass-blocking for Cutler. Demarcus Ware is smacking his lips for this match-up. The Bears have been great on defense thus far but with their offense putting them in terrible spots as much as they have, they can't keep up with the Cowboys. Romo finally starts clicking and the Cowboy defense might end up with a defensive TD in this one.
Bye: Colts, Steelers.
Last week's picks: 7-9
Already picked: Ravens 21 - Browns 14 (Result: Ravens 23 - Browns 16)
Patriots 24 - Bills 28: Upset special! The Bills finally have the defensive line to pressure Brady without a blitz. They've always had a tough time covering Welker and tight-ends in general so Gronkowski should have a good day. But their run defense is much better this year; meanwhile their run game might end up being a mixture of Jackson, Spiller and Choice with the first two questionable for this game. This game will come down to which Fitzpatrick shows up. For the Pats, they are missing Hernandez and now Mankins; apparently Gronk is questionable as well but I don't buy that he'll miss the game.
49ers 27 - Jets 14: The Jets cannot run the ball to save their lives and their passing game isn't much better. The 49ers, I think, will have a defensive score in this one with the way Sanchez is throwing the ball. It's a home game - which means if Sanchez stinks it up we very well could see the Tebow chants grow louder. As I've mentioned before, the Niners are a complete team and they were upset last week by the Vikings - look for them to respond in a big way.
Seahawks 17 - Rams 20: I know the Seahawks have had the winning edge in this matchup for a long time but this is where the Rams turn the tide. The hawks got away with one on Monday night and after such an emotional game this one seems like a trap game. Based on pure matchups, the Seahawks would win this 9 out of 10 times. But I just have a gut feeling that the Rams pull this one out.
Panthers 17 - Falcons 34: This Panther defense is horrendous against the run and the pass. And then there's Matt Ryan and his boys who are on fire. Yeah - talk about the perfect storm! Cam Newton has been regressing thus far this year and that Falcon defense is playing great football right now. I think this one will be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Vikings 20 - Lions 31: The Lions offense finally found a running game last week and Stafford was on the injury report earlier in the week but he'll be fine. This offense is still finding its groove and the same can likely be said about the defense as well. The Vikings get Jerome Simpson back, which will help stretch the defense and open up holes for Harvin, Rudolph, and Peterson. I think the Lions get the home support behind them and start reminding us of last year's team.
Chargers 34 - Chiefs 17: The Chiefs upset the Saints last week, but this Charger defense is likely peeved off after getting sliced up by Matt Ryan last week. Cassel is no Ryan and this Chiefs offense runs through Jamal Charles so the Chargers should be able to stack 8 in the box and focus on stopping him. Ryan Mathews will finally get it going for the Bolts and they will win at Arrowhead (one of the toughest venues for an away team).
Titans 10 - Texans 28: The Texans are the best team in football right now and the Titans are a mess on both sides of the ball. This one is another game that will likely be done by the 3rd quarter. The Titans cannot run block to save their lives - Chris Johnson's average per carry before contact is 0.5 yards. Let that marinate for a minute. He goes, on average, half a yard before he takes contact by the defense. The Texans will likely go up early and milk the clock down with their two stud running backs.
Bengals 20 - Jaguars 23: Another slight upset here - the Bengals have been terrible at defending the pass thus far and the Jaguars are at home which will hopefully keep Gabbert from making too many mistakes. The Jags will play conservative offense, as they have thus far, and ride Jones-drew to a last second victory.
Raiders 17 - Broncos 28: An old-time division rivalry. I think this is the week that Peyton Manning finally gets into groove and gives them solid play for all four quarters. The Bronco defense has been pretty good so far but they will be without linebacker Joe Mays so I can see McFadden having a pretty good game. But outside of that, the Broncos will show us that they are pretty good. They've been somewhat unlucky thus far having played two top-5 teams the last two weeks.
Dolphins 16 - Cardinals 30: The Cardinals are for real and their 3-0 record is not a mirage in the desert. If they get solid play from Kolb and if Ryan Williams can give them solid production on the ground, their defense will be able to keep them in most, if not all, games. The Dolphins just don't have the weapons to match-up against this defense right now and it doesn't help that Bush, their best offensive threat, is banged up right now.
Redskins 17 - Buccaneers 23: The Bucs have also been victims of a tough schedule thus far. They played the Giants down to the wire and then went blow for blow with an ultra-talented Cowboys squad. They, surprisingly, have the best run defense in football right now and Gerald McCoy has been a break through player for them thus far. The skins cannot keep trotting RGIII out on those option plays and exposing the rookie to big hits. They also cannot cover anyone right now so I think the Bucs should be able to come out with a win in this one.
Saints 27 - Packers 34: This has the makings of a shootout. The Saints are not as much of a machine on offense as they used to be but they're still pretty good - on the other hand they cannot stop anybody right now. The Packers are coming off of a heart-breaking controversial loss to the Seahawks on Monday night so look for them to be fired up for this one in front of their home crowd. Who would've thought that three weeks into the season these two teams would have a combined record of 1-5?
Giants 28 - Eagles 25: Another great division match-up, the Eagles might be the most over-rated 2-1 team right now. They definitely have the talent, but its the fact that they've managed to win despite a minus-6 turnover ration is mind-boggling! They can't keep that up and expect to come out with a win. The Giants will take care of business early, even without Hakeem Nicks, and the Eagles will make it close late but come up short.
Bears 17 - Cowboys 31: The Bears have been excellent at rushing the passer thus fur but they also have been terrible at pass-blocking for Cutler. Demarcus Ware is smacking his lips for this match-up. The Bears have been great on defense thus far but with their offense putting them in terrible spots as much as they have, they can't keep up with the Cowboys. Romo finally starts clicking and the Cowboy defense might end up with a defensive TD in this one.
Bye: Colts, Steelers.
Last week's picks: 7-9
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