Christmas weekend for football fans officially came to an end on Saturday night. Many will be tuning in to ESPN and NFL Network the days following the draft and watching the "experts" grade their favorite teams' efforts this past weekend. Well one thing I can say definitively is that nobody knows truly how any team did. Bruce Irvin could very well end up being the best pass rusher in this class, and Rueben Randle could just as easily end up being a bust at wide receiver (which will make the 31 teams not named New York Giants look like geniuses for passing on the talented wide receiver not once but twice). Or the opposite could happen. More after the jump
What I'm trying to get at is that all these grades that we see being passed around like free candy don't really mean anything. For one, football games aren't played on paper (just ask Redskins fans). And secondly, so much of how this player ends up as a pro will depend on how he fits within the scheme and coaching of the new team. And lastly, but probably most importantly, its up to the players. We've seen plenty of "superstars" in college fizzle out in the NFL due to lack of work ethic, dedication, and/or character. So when I grade drafts, I really just try to look at what the team needs were going into draft weekend and how well teams were able to fill them, keeping in mind whether the player was "over-drafted" or "under-drafted."
Again, these are all just my attempt to project based on how I perceive the needs and player ranks to be. After all, the scouting reports you see online and elsewhere, the projections before the draft, rankings, mock drafts, etc are all just projections. Past that, I think good teams are the ones that draft well and good drafting, to me, is all about reloading on talent. If you look around the NFL, all the best teams have one common ingredient - great depth. Injuries are a part of the NFL, and teams that fail to recognize that are usually sitting home on their couches in January. So don't be surprised if you see the "d" word in my analysis repeatedly. Additionally the draft is about finding impact players, especially at key positions. What are the key positions you ask? In today's NFL, I think there are 4, maybe 5, premium positions: quarterback, pass rusher, corner, left tackle, and a true #1 wide receiver. So if a team is able to find a starter at any of these positions I call that a good pick. In my humble opinion, I think a team picking in the top 10 should aim to find elite players at these positions first unless a player at a different position is rated significantly higher than the rest. Keeping all of this in mind (what the disclaimer!), let's take a look at some teams that stood out to me in good, bad, and weird ways. These ratings are in alphabetical order, so don't read into it too much.
THE GOOD - I think these teams had solid drafts top to bottom. They picked high rated players at positions of need for the most part and on paper these teams are leaving draft weekend with not only an improved roster but starters at multiple positions.
Browns: Their first three picks will all be starters by mid-season the latest, possibly even by the time training camp ends. Richardson is the best back to come out since Adrian Peterson. Weeden is a polished passer who would've been a top 10 pick if not for his age and his lack of pressure throws. And OT Mitchell Schwartz will also be a starter at right tackle from day 1. As you can see, two of these three picks are at premium positions and Richardson was by far the best non-QB in this draft. In the late rounds, I like DT Billy Winn from Boise St. and CB Trevin Wade from Arizona. Both are very talented but have question marks in their game; 6th and 7th rounds, respectively, is a good time to take these types of gambles.
Eagles: Fletcher Cox is a rare blend of size and athleticism, so the Eagles did well by moving up to 12 to nab their starting DT. In the 2nd round, they got themselves some eventual starters in LB Mychal Kendricks and DE Vinny Curry (who I had graded pretty close to the pass rushers in the 1st round). On Day 3, they managed to find a gem at a premium position when they picked up CB Brandon Boykin from Georgia in the 4th round (2nd round grade). I am not so sure about QB Nick Foles out of Arizona, but he has great physical tools and is the perfect project for Andy Reid.
Rams: I thought them trading down in the 1st round was a rookie move which denied them a shot at one of the six elite players in this draft. Instead they took a project DT at #14 in Michael Brockers, although he has immense potential. However, on day 2, they got 3 immediate starters in WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, and CB Trumaine Johnson, and an eventual starter in RB Isaiah Pead. Quick is a physical specimen, Jenkins may be the best man to man cover corner in this draft, Johnson is not far behind, and Pead is an underrated every-down running back. It's not like they don't have questions, but even if half of them pan out they'll have taken a step in the right direction. On day 3, I like WR Chris Givens who gives Bradford a vertical threat.
Steelers: The Steelers do this year in and out, which is why they are the benchmark for success in building NFL rosters. They got 3, maybe 4, full-time starters, and others who will contribute or get shipped out. DeCastro at #24 is a steal! OT Mike Adams has great tools but he needs to get his head right, and I think Tomlin is the right guy to get him there. LB Sean Spence may be lacking in size, but he's a heck of a football player that just finds the ball and plays bigger. And lastly, Alameda Ta'amu is a hidden gem and the best natural nose tackle in this draft - they got him in the 4th round. RB Chris Rainey (5th round) will be a change of pace year 1 contributor as well.
Vikings: They caused quite a stir-up at the top of the draft by extracting some late round picks from the Browns and still having the choice to pick between Morris Claiborne or Mat Kalil. In the end they picked Kalil and I think it was the right choice. He's the best pure LT in this draft and they need to protect Ponder if he's ever going to take the next step. I think both of the next picks - S Harrison Smith and CB Josh Robinson will be starting for them by mid-season the latest. The pair of Arkansas wide receivers - Jarius Wright and Greg Childs - provide explosive weapons for Ponder. In the late rounds, I really like DE Trevor Guyton out of Cal - he's a hustle player and flashes excellence.
Keep an eye out for Parts 2 and 3 in this Draft Grade series.
What I'm trying to get at is that all these grades that we see being passed around like free candy don't really mean anything. For one, football games aren't played on paper (just ask Redskins fans). And secondly, so much of how this player ends up as a pro will depend on how he fits within the scheme and coaching of the new team. And lastly, but probably most importantly, its up to the players. We've seen plenty of "superstars" in college fizzle out in the NFL due to lack of work ethic, dedication, and/or character. So when I grade drafts, I really just try to look at what the team needs were going into draft weekend and how well teams were able to fill them, keeping in mind whether the player was "over-drafted" or "under-drafted."
Again, these are all just my attempt to project based on how I perceive the needs and player ranks to be. After all, the scouting reports you see online and elsewhere, the projections before the draft, rankings, mock drafts, etc are all just projections. Past that, I think good teams are the ones that draft well and good drafting, to me, is all about reloading on talent. If you look around the NFL, all the best teams have one common ingredient - great depth. Injuries are a part of the NFL, and teams that fail to recognize that are usually sitting home on their couches in January. So don't be surprised if you see the "d" word in my analysis repeatedly. Additionally the draft is about finding impact players, especially at key positions. What are the key positions you ask? In today's NFL, I think there are 4, maybe 5, premium positions: quarterback, pass rusher, corner, left tackle, and a true #1 wide receiver. So if a team is able to find a starter at any of these positions I call that a good pick. In my humble opinion, I think a team picking in the top 10 should aim to find elite players at these positions first unless a player at a different position is rated significantly higher than the rest. Keeping all of this in mind (what the disclaimer!), let's take a look at some teams that stood out to me in good, bad, and weird ways. These ratings are in alphabetical order, so don't read into it too much.
THE GOOD - I think these teams had solid drafts top to bottom. They picked high rated players at positions of need for the most part and on paper these teams are leaving draft weekend with not only an improved roster but starters at multiple positions.
Browns: Their first three picks will all be starters by mid-season the latest, possibly even by the time training camp ends. Richardson is the best back to come out since Adrian Peterson. Weeden is a polished passer who would've been a top 10 pick if not for his age and his lack of pressure throws. And OT Mitchell Schwartz will also be a starter at right tackle from day 1. As you can see, two of these three picks are at premium positions and Richardson was by far the best non-QB in this draft. In the late rounds, I like DT Billy Winn from Boise St. and CB Trevin Wade from Arizona. Both are very talented but have question marks in their game; 6th and 7th rounds, respectively, is a good time to take these types of gambles.
Eagles: Fletcher Cox is a rare blend of size and athleticism, so the Eagles did well by moving up to 12 to nab their starting DT. In the 2nd round, they got themselves some eventual starters in LB Mychal Kendricks and DE Vinny Curry (who I had graded pretty close to the pass rushers in the 1st round). On Day 3, they managed to find a gem at a premium position when they picked up CB Brandon Boykin from Georgia in the 4th round (2nd round grade). I am not so sure about QB Nick Foles out of Arizona, but he has great physical tools and is the perfect project for Andy Reid.
Rams: I thought them trading down in the 1st round was a rookie move which denied them a shot at one of the six elite players in this draft. Instead they took a project DT at #14 in Michael Brockers, although he has immense potential. However, on day 2, they got 3 immediate starters in WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, and CB Trumaine Johnson, and an eventual starter in RB Isaiah Pead. Quick is a physical specimen, Jenkins may be the best man to man cover corner in this draft, Johnson is not far behind, and Pead is an underrated every-down running back. It's not like they don't have questions, but even if half of them pan out they'll have taken a step in the right direction. On day 3, I like WR Chris Givens who gives Bradford a vertical threat.
Steelers: The Steelers do this year in and out, which is why they are the benchmark for success in building NFL rosters. They got 3, maybe 4, full-time starters, and others who will contribute or get shipped out. DeCastro at #24 is a steal! OT Mike Adams has great tools but he needs to get his head right, and I think Tomlin is the right guy to get him there. LB Sean Spence may be lacking in size, but he's a heck of a football player that just finds the ball and plays bigger. And lastly, Alameda Ta'amu is a hidden gem and the best natural nose tackle in this draft - they got him in the 4th round. RB Chris Rainey (5th round) will be a change of pace year 1 contributor as well.
Vikings: They caused quite a stir-up at the top of the draft by extracting some late round picks from the Browns and still having the choice to pick between Morris Claiborne or Mat Kalil. In the end they picked Kalil and I think it was the right choice. He's the best pure LT in this draft and they need to protect Ponder if he's ever going to take the next step. I think both of the next picks - S Harrison Smith and CB Josh Robinson will be starting for them by mid-season the latest. The pair of Arkansas wide receivers - Jarius Wright and Greg Childs - provide explosive weapons for Ponder. In the late rounds, I really like DE Trevor Guyton out of Cal - he's a hustle player and flashes excellence.
Keep an eye out for Parts 2 and 3 in this Draft Grade series.
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