The annual "underwear olympics", as NFL Network's Mike Mayock calls it, is upon us. As usual, the most talked about event at the combine (and the most overrated in my opinion) is the 40 yard dash. The least talked about event is usually the medical examinations but ironically is probably the most important as far as NFL teams are concerned. Following the combine for the past few years I've learned that teams generally use the combine for information gathering. Contrary to popular belief, the 40 time does not automatically improve or hurt a player's draft stock. What it does is force the teams to go back and watch more tape on a particular player if he times slower or faster than expected. All the drills at the combine serve teams as an indicator. If the guy runs as fast and moves as well as expected then the combine drills serve as a reinforcement of what the tape has shown all year. However if the guy runs faster or slower, or does better or worse in the combine drills then teams will dig hard to find out why. Did the player lose weight since the college season to move faster/smoother? Is that weight ideal for his frame in the NFL? Did he maintain his strength while shaving off the fractions of a second of his 40 time? Every year there's a handful of athletes who blow the doors off the combine and get over-drafted. The past few years I've seen teams like the Raiders and Jets blow early picks on workout warriors who go on to disappoint once the pads go on.
Every year there's a few players that NFL teams have more question marks on than the average player that can be answered at the combine. In my opinion, this year, the top 10 list is as follows:
1. Manti Te'o, LB (ND): His biggest hurdles will be the team interviews and really all the drills. No player, in my opinion, has as much to lose or gain as Te'o does this weekend. He is off to a good start with his press conference yesterday where he answered every question with genuine honesty, in my opinion. Now he needs to show teams that the national championship game tape was an aberration in the drills and by having a good bench press number to show his strength.
2. Geno Smith, QB (WVU): He needs to show teams his speed and arm strength in drills. His 40 time will either solidify the general consensus that he is capable of running the read option in the NFL that has gained popularity this year or not.
3. Jarvis Jones, LB (GA): His biggest hurdle is the medical examinations. Teams have a lot of concern over whether his spinal stenosis diagnosis at USC will limit his career in the NFL. We saw DeQuan Bowers in the recent past go from a top-5 pick to mid 2nd round due to medical issues. Jarvis is probably a top 5-10 pick on tape but he may also take a huge tumble on draft day if enough teams don't see favorable medical reports on him.
4. Cordarelle Patterson, WR (TENN): Patterson is very green and last year was his first full year starting. But, on tape, he looked explosive with the ball in his hands and a natural pass catcher. He reminded me of Julio Jones a little bit and if his 40 time and his WR drills confirm this, he might sneak into the top 10.
5. Tavon Austin, WR (WVU): Austin is a dynamic play maker in space and his 40 time will likely confirm this. If he can show teams that he is a natural pass catcher in drills while making adjustments on the fly and if his height/weight doesn't come up lower than expected he could sneak himself into the first round. NFL teams would love to have a wild-card like Austin in the slot.
6. Tyler Eifert, TE (ND): Many teams have a two-way tie for the number one tight end this year between Eifert and Zac Ertz of Stanford. I think Eifert jumps off at you on tape just a bit more and having a better 40 time and a better performance in the drills might solidify him as the top tight end in this year's class and a mid-first round pick.
7. Dion Jordan, LB (OR): Jordan is a very intriguing prospect in that he was very productive and his ideal length and array of pass rush moves could be very useful as a 3-4 OLB. With more teams moving to the 3-4 this year, they will be paying close attention to Jordan's wingspan, how he moves in the drills, and his 3-cone drill time. He could be a top 10 pick in April when all is said and done.
8. Margus Hunt, DE (SMU): Hunt has what a lot of teams are looking for - size, speed, and athleticism on the defensive line. At 6'8", 280 and a plethora of pass rushing moves, and the versatility to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end, teams will be looking to see if he has JJ Watt like qualities. They certainly show up on tape, now he needs to show that his measurables are on par with his tape. If so, he will sneak into the first round.
9. Mike Glennon, QB (NC ST): The general consesnsus around the league is that Geno Smith is the top quarterback as of now, although he is not exactly on solid ground. After him, it's between Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. Glennon's strengths are his rocket arm and more than ideal height. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of mobility, and his composure/pocket presence. It'll be hard for him to show teams that he's overcome those weaknesses in a combine setting but he can at least reassure teams on his arm strength and show them he has more mobility than expected by showing well in the movement drills.
10. Tyler Wilson, QB (ARK): Like Glennon, Wilson is battling for that 2nd spot behind Geno Smith. He needs to answer questions on his arm strength and accuracy. He had a better Junior season than Senior so he also needs to score well in his interviews. If he's able to convince teams that his digression from 2011 to 2012 was more a product of his head coach leaving and a lack of playmakers all the while maintaining his leadership qualities and taking some of the blame himself he might enter the late first round discussion. As of now, he's a 2nd rounder to me.
By the way, asides from all the potential rookies that NFL teams will be closely watching this weekend, the combine has also served as a meeting point for NFL GMs and their own unrestricted free agents. It's a rare occasion where all 32 GMs will be present in one building and sports agents use this venue to start having face to face meetings.
Every year there's a few players that NFL teams have more question marks on than the average player that can be answered at the combine. In my opinion, this year, the top 10 list is as follows:
1. Manti Te'o, LB (ND): His biggest hurdles will be the team interviews and really all the drills. No player, in my opinion, has as much to lose or gain as Te'o does this weekend. He is off to a good start with his press conference yesterday where he answered every question with genuine honesty, in my opinion. Now he needs to show teams that the national championship game tape was an aberration in the drills and by having a good bench press number to show his strength.
2. Geno Smith, QB (WVU): He needs to show teams his speed and arm strength in drills. His 40 time will either solidify the general consensus that he is capable of running the read option in the NFL that has gained popularity this year or not.
3. Jarvis Jones, LB (GA): His biggest hurdle is the medical examinations. Teams have a lot of concern over whether his spinal stenosis diagnosis at USC will limit his career in the NFL. We saw DeQuan Bowers in the recent past go from a top-5 pick to mid 2nd round due to medical issues. Jarvis is probably a top 5-10 pick on tape but he may also take a huge tumble on draft day if enough teams don't see favorable medical reports on him.
4. Cordarelle Patterson, WR (TENN): Patterson is very green and last year was his first full year starting. But, on tape, he looked explosive with the ball in his hands and a natural pass catcher. He reminded me of Julio Jones a little bit and if his 40 time and his WR drills confirm this, he might sneak into the top 10.
5. Tavon Austin, WR (WVU): Austin is a dynamic play maker in space and his 40 time will likely confirm this. If he can show teams that he is a natural pass catcher in drills while making adjustments on the fly and if his height/weight doesn't come up lower than expected he could sneak himself into the first round. NFL teams would love to have a wild-card like Austin in the slot.
6. Tyler Eifert, TE (ND): Many teams have a two-way tie for the number one tight end this year between Eifert and Zac Ertz of Stanford. I think Eifert jumps off at you on tape just a bit more and having a better 40 time and a better performance in the drills might solidify him as the top tight end in this year's class and a mid-first round pick.
7. Dion Jordan, LB (OR): Jordan is a very intriguing prospect in that he was very productive and his ideal length and array of pass rush moves could be very useful as a 3-4 OLB. With more teams moving to the 3-4 this year, they will be paying close attention to Jordan's wingspan, how he moves in the drills, and his 3-cone drill time. He could be a top 10 pick in April when all is said and done.
8. Margus Hunt, DE (SMU): Hunt has what a lot of teams are looking for - size, speed, and athleticism on the defensive line. At 6'8", 280 and a plethora of pass rushing moves, and the versatility to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end, teams will be looking to see if he has JJ Watt like qualities. They certainly show up on tape, now he needs to show that his measurables are on par with his tape. If so, he will sneak into the first round.
9. Mike Glennon, QB (NC ST): The general consesnsus around the league is that Geno Smith is the top quarterback as of now, although he is not exactly on solid ground. After him, it's between Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. Glennon's strengths are his rocket arm and more than ideal height. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of mobility, and his composure/pocket presence. It'll be hard for him to show teams that he's overcome those weaknesses in a combine setting but he can at least reassure teams on his arm strength and show them he has more mobility than expected by showing well in the movement drills.
10. Tyler Wilson, QB (ARK): Like Glennon, Wilson is battling for that 2nd spot behind Geno Smith. He needs to answer questions on his arm strength and accuracy. He had a better Junior season than Senior so he also needs to score well in his interviews. If he's able to convince teams that his digression from 2011 to 2012 was more a product of his head coach leaving and a lack of playmakers all the while maintaining his leadership qualities and taking some of the blame himself he might enter the late first round discussion. As of now, he's a 2nd rounder to me.
By the way, asides from all the potential rookies that NFL teams will be closely watching this weekend, the combine has also served as a meeting point for NFL GMs and their own unrestricted free agents. It's a rare occasion where all 32 GMs will be present in one building and sports agents use this venue to start having face to face meetings.
No comments:
Post a Comment