Why Kaepernick is the right decision and Sanchez the wrong one.

Many NFL story-lines as we enter week 14. There's the MVP race, two rookie quarterbacks lighting up the league, Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson - either of whom could be the MVP or the Comeback player of the year, Baltimore's road woes and now apparently their home woes against a Charlie Batch led Steelers, and much much more. But I wanted to talk about quarterback decisions made in San Fransisco and New York and why Harbaugh has it right and Ryan continues to make the wrong one.

First the Kaepernick decision: I sympathize with Alex Smith. As he best put it, he did nothing to lose his job except get a concussion. But switching to Kaepernick is the right decision for two reasons:

1. Smith is a solid quarterback and Harbaugh knows this. However Smith is a game manager and a good decision maker. The offense is decidedly conservative because of it. He's not the quarterback to lead your team on a comeback down 14 points to Matt Ryan and Falcons in the playoffs. We don't know if Kaepernick can do that either but we can find out. Kaep certainly has the skill set. He's got a stronger arm and can make all the NFL throws plus he has the legs to bail him out of most bad situations and get some serious yardage. As a player he's a poor man's Cam Newton with maybe even a stronger arm. He's just not as polished a passer yet.

Harbaugh knows all of this. He's seen enough in practices and games to want to go after Peyton Manning in the off season. So far the 49ers have been able to dominate against average opponents while stay alive against quality opponents. The Giants blow out of the 49ers in October has been a rarity in the Harbaugh era. The Niners have a dominant defense, a very good offensive line and running game. But like any defense made of humans, they'll have their bad days and it's games like that where the lack of a great quarterback is evident.  Whether Kaepernick is that guy remains to be seen, but it's a proactive decision to want to find out.

2. The second reason I like the Kaepernick decision is because switching to Alex Smith is very much in play. If Kaepernick proves to be unable to perform well in games, Harbaugh can easily pull the plug on the second-year player and plug the veteran Smith back into the lineup. And having a motivated Alex Smith trying to lead your team can't be a bad thing. But now let's flip the situation around. If Harbaugh had stuck with Smith and lets say the Niners are forced to pull him in the middle of a playoff game when they're down big or even after the game (if they survive with a win), putting in a green Kaepernick at that point is a much worse situation. At least with the current situation, Kaepernick will get some much-needed experience in the regular season and the coaching staff will get to get a long look at him and cater a game-plan to his strengths which they wouldn't get otherwise if Smith fails and they end up making this decision at halftime in the divisional playoffs.

Bottomline, I love the decision by Harbaugh because its a head coach doing everything he can to make it to the Superbowl this time and win it. They still have the all world defense and running game to keep them in most games. Kaep might be able to get them over the hump.

In New York, Rex Ryan continues to exemplify just how much of a circus show the Jets really are. Mark Sanchez is not a franchise quarterback. I don't even think he's as good a quarterback as Alex Smith. The whole world has seen enough of Mark Sanchez. We've seen him do enough to get his team to the AFC championship game but now we've also seen his shortcomings when the Jets are without their best defensive player and probably their best offensive player. Even the Jets owner, Woody Johnson, wants Ryan to start McElroy over Sanchez. With over $8 million guaranteed to Sanchez next year, he's a lock to be on the roster. And unless the Jets go out there and get some solid veteran insurance and put the Tebow project to bed or give him a chance, Sanchez will probably be the starter.

To me, this is the type of decision that could end up slowly hurting your franchise for the next 5 years. Ryan should take a page out of Harbaugh's playbook and start McElroy. They're not going to the playoffs this year (although they are still mathematically alive), but they do need to figure out what to do with Sanchez next year. And finding out whether McElroy can at least be serviceable help make the decision. Plus Rex Ryan has lost at least part of the locker room. Anonymous players have come out and said that they do not think Sanchez is a good quarterback. This is a mess and there are many reasons for it but like any other football team the head coach and the quarterback will take the brunt of the blame for it.

NFL Week 10 Nuggets

- I find it ironic that I really don't see much difference in the officiating between the replacement refs and the regular guys. It seems that the replacement guys made a lot of obvious mistakes but got some of the bigger calls right (the Green Bay/Seattle debacle notwithstanding). I see the regular refs make equal number of mistakes, if not more, but they are just not as obvious to the casual fan. I saw horrendous calls that possibly altered the game in the St.Louis/San Francisco, the New England/Bufalo, the Pittsburgh/Kansas City, the Carolina/Denver , and the Philadelphia/Dallas games. Maybe the replacement refs weren't so bad after all.

- I think the rules in place intended to protect quarterbacks within the pocket are proving to be more hurtful when they are outside the pocket. This week, we've seen concussions to at least four starting quarterbacks, two of which were vicious hits they took on the run (Alex Smith and Jay Cutler). I get frustrated just watching these ticky-tacky calls on defenders when they take a shot at a quarterback in the pocket, so I know the defenders must be frustrated as well. But once the QB starts running the ball outside the pocket, he's just like any other runner and you know defenders are licking their chops at a shot at the guy that is so protected by the NFL - they might as well just put a red jersey on him. I completely understand the business side of the NFL's decision to implement these rules. It's a QB-driven league and they are protecting their investment. I also understand the concern for player safety after decades of poor tackling form that starts as early as pee wee football and results in multiple concussions. But some of these calls against defenders is threatening the integrity of the game. These plays are so bang-bang, high speed, and the quarterbacks nowadays are all great emmy-worthy actors. I hate seeing a 3rd down stop by the defense nullified and a free 15 yards awarded to the offense on what should be a non-call.

- Two players that impress me even more now that they are coming off injury this year: Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning. Either of them are a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year or the NFL MVP. I think AP impresses me the most because of how soon he came back from that injury and how amazing he has been thus far. A modern medical marvel. Running backs with ACL injuries seldom regain their form, and even then it takes them at least a season to work through it. AP tore his ACL last winter and by September he was back tearing up the league.

- As purely an idea at this point, they should allow coaches to challenge any two referee calls during the game (except for maybe pure judgement calls like when the play was blown dead). If the coach/team gets both of the calls to go his way, then they get an additional challenge - just like the current challenge system. I know the refs, generally, do an amazing job of officiating the game. But in this age of technology, there is no reason to have bad calls affect the outcome of the game. And don't give me that crap about the inconvenience of the game being stopped. If it affects fans so much, why aren't they flocking to watching soccer? NFL games have TV timeouts after every first down it seems like. No wonder the Chiefs games don't get many commercials.

- The Ravens caught a lucky break by possibly not having to face Big Ben in either of their regular division games. In a scheduling anomaly, the Ravens and Steelers face each other in 2 of the next 3 games. The first game is in Pittsburgh and Flacco and the Ravens have been atrocious away from Baltimore this year. Nothing has been confirmed yet but it looks like Big Ben is almost sure to miss the first game. He may be back in time for the game in Baltimore but the Ravens (and Flacco) are unstoppable at home. While on paper, this is a clear advantage for the Ravens, I would never rest easy knowing Mike Tomlin is across the field.

- Say what you want about the Kansas City Chiefs, they know their shortcomings at Quarterback. I thought I was watching the Jacksonville Jaguars last night as the Chiefs ran basically three plays over and over and over again. A run to the right, a play-action pass off the run action to the right, and a pass play with multiple curl routes. Like the Jags on Thursday night, the Chiefs also threw a pick as a defender jumped the curl route. In the end, the game was way closer than it should've been. But as a play-caller, I don't understand why they wouldn't change it up a little bit once the defense has shown that it has adjusted to your base plays?  I understand the weather factor, but that is no excuse. Both teams have to deal with that. I would hope Cassel isn't that bad. If he is, and if the coaching staff doesn't believe in him, why put him out there? Either way this team is the favorite to pick Matt Barkley this off season. 

NFL Nuggets

Just some thoughts I had on week 9 games I got to watch.

- Bills have to get the ball in CJ Spiller's hands more often. I agree that he is not a running back that you hand the ball off to 20+ times. But he needs to touch the ball 15-20 times a game whether that be via carries or catches.

- The Eagles offensive line is even worse than I thought they were. And losing their right tackle for the rest of the season is not going to make things any better. But all of that said, Vick has almost no pocket presence. In the Monday night game against the Saints (who sacked him 7 times!) I counted at least 2 sacks that I am comfortable blaming Vick for because the defense showed the blitz pre-snap and Vick didn't recognize it and then post-snap he continued through his progression instead of throwing a hot route. If I'm Andy Reid, I'm leaving in tight ends to help on passing plays, especially deep ones.

- The Eagles-Cowboys game this coming week is huge. I think this is a springboard game for each team to turn their seasons around. And the way the Giants and Eli are playing right now, 9-7 might be enough to win that division.

- Kansas City needs a quarterback worse than any team in the league right now. And they will probably have the first crack at it with the inside track to the #1 pick. I'm just not sure I'd want to be taking a quarterback that high in the upcoming draft. Nobody really excites me but in a QB-driven league the odds are pretty good that it will be a quarterback at #1 overall. Matt Cassel has proven to me, every year since he left the Patriots, that he's a system quarterback. And Brady Quinn....yeeeshh. It's too bad too because I thought he would end up being a pretty good one. He's just had no continuity of any kind in terms of coaching.

- Speaking of teams that need a quarterback, I think Jacksonville needs to be looking for one next year but they probably won't because they invested such a high pick on Blaine Gabbert - who is turning out to be a bust so far. They also need to get him some help on the offensive line and play calling. You can't call the 8-yard curl route 15 times a game and expect it not to be picked off.

- I don't understand how/why they did not review the Andrew Luck 2nd rushing "touchdown" in last night's Colts-Jags epic match up. Supposedly the ref got the call from upstairs that it was reviewed and relayed to the head official on the field however the latter never made any announcement to the fans/coaches which led to Mike Mularkey blowing a gasket at the 20 yard line. I think that was a goal line stand. There's a brief second where you can see on the replay that the ball looks to be over the goal-line but it also looked like Luck did not have complete control over it at that point. Either way, I don't necessarily have a problem with the call on the field but that there was not communication from the head official before the extra point that the previous play was reviewed upstairs and upheld.

RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (Part 2)

Part 1 here

In my last post I concluded that based on stats alone RGIII is clearly out-performing Andrew Luck thus far. However, stats rarely tell the whole story. Let's dive in a little bit.

For all the hoopla about RGIII's arm strength and deep ball accuracy, the Redskins coaching staff haven't quite turned him loose yet. Most of this throws have been short ones or on the run. Essentially they are putting their young signal caller in the best position to win right now and that is by utilizing his skills but making up for his obvious deficiencies being a rookie in the league. Griffin has had only 5 completions in 15 total attempts this season that traveled more than 20 yards downfield. On the contrary, Luck is 12 for 35 on throws more than 20 yards. So the Colts have been allowing Luck to take a lot more shots down the field - more than double that of the Redskins with RGIII.

When I watch the tape, I notice RGIII getting rid of the ball very often after his first read, sometimes after his second read. I see him making quick decisions with the ball and getting it out in the hands of his receivers in space. I don't see him going through his entire progression on most plays. On the other hand, I see Luck doing the opposite more often than RGIII. Now, no quarterback should be going through all or even most of his progressions on most plays - that would be a sign that either a) his receivers just can't get open or b) the quarterback is being indecisive. But I do notice the Colts giving Luck a lot more progressions to go through than the Redskins are with RGIII.

Then there's the rushing ability. Obviously RGIII has an advantage in that department. He is the one with special talent as a runner and a coaching staff that is obviously willing to let him run, despite concerns over exposing him to big hits such as the one he took against the Falcons. In half a season, RGIII has proven to be a dynamic runner. But long term, this trend is disturbing, in my opinion. On the other side, Luck has actually been running the ball a healthy amount of times as well. 26 attempts for 143 yards and 3 TDs. That's definitely more than your average quarterback in the NFL.

Based on the three points above, my conclusions are as follows. The Colts are throwing a much more conventional NFL offense at Luck and are likely putting a lot more plays on Luck's plate than the Redskins are with RGIII. The Redskins are protecting their franchise guy by nurturing him as a passer. I wish they'd do the same with him as a runner. The Colts are, ironically enough, taking the Peyton Manning approach with Luck. They are giving him the whole playbook and allowing him to go through his growing pains. They don't seem to be spoon feeding or watering down the playbook because Luck is a rookie. And Luck is doing pretty well, given the circumstances. He's got the Colts at 4-3 and in the AFC landscape as it stands today that might be good enough to get into the playoffs. Whereas, the Redskins do seem to be watering down the playbook and giving Griffin short, high-percentage passes while taking the occasional deep shot. They're also allowing Griffin to use his 4.41 speed by calling designed runs and option plays. Obviously both franchises are hoping that their respective rookie quarterback turns into a franchise guy for the long run and are developing him as such. But it would seem that the Redskins are in a little bit more "win-now" mode than the Colts but are receiving opposite results as they are just 3-5 and in a tough NFC. Obviously there's a lot more that goes into the records besides just the way the team manages their quarterbacks and how those guys perform. Both teams have played different opponents, their defenses are different, etc etc.

In the long run, I think both teams are taking the right approach (for the most part) with their respective rookie quarterback. I have always been impressed with Luck's knowledge and cerebral approach to the game and he's showing that he can handle the full playbook. Whereas RGIII works best when he's allowed to just go out there and make plays instead of trying to make him a pocket passer that will go through multiple progressions before throwing the ball. The one issue I do have though is how Washington has been constantly putting Griffin in a situation where he is exposed to big hits. He is not Cam Newton. He is fairly small in stature in comparison to the prototypical NFL quarterback. He will not be around for many games if he keeps taking those type of hits. I understand that it's part of his game, maybe even the best part of his game, but you can't get short-sighted with your franchise quarterback.

I'll try and do another review at the end of the season. I'm interested to see if these trends continue or if anything changes. Hope you found it interesting and I always welcome a healthy debate on any of the posts I make. Feel free to comment below.

RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (part 1)

First off, I hope you were not too affected by "Superstorm Sandy." I imagine if you were, you probably wouldn't be reading this blog until maybe next week. In any case, I hope you and your loved ones are all safe and sound and are not too inconvenienced in the aftermath of the storm.

I kinda took this week to look at some things on my blog and have decided on a new format. I won't be doing the weekly picks and predictions or the week in review. Frankly, I just don't get the opportunity to watch as many games as I'd like over the week and you can probably get posts like that on any of the major sports sites. Instead, I'd like to delve a little deeper into a particular team or player's performance based on what I see for that week or even over a few weeks.

In light of the new format, I thought a good way to kick it off would be a mid-season review between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III - the #1 and 2 overall pick, respectively, in this year's draft.

TNF preview/prediction

Bucaneers - Vikings:

The Bucs and Vikings are interesting teams. Both are young, although the Vikes probably have more veteran leadership (but the younger quarterback). This is a tough game to pick because this is a case of "the immovable object moves the unstoppable force" kind of thing. The Bucs' best offensive strength, week 7 explosion notwithstanding, is running the football and that is the Vikings' defensive strength. On the other side, the Vikes are very good and dependent on running the football and the Bucs are also very good at stopping the run. The Bucs have been force feeding the ball to Vincent Jackson and the Vikings have been shutting down opposing #1 wide receivers. Something's gotta give and with the rules in today's NFL, I'm giving the edge to offense.

I think Adrian Peterson will keep the running attack successful enough that the Bucs can't get away with playing two-deep coverage against Percy Harvin and co.  Because this is a Thursday night game, I'm expecting another relatively low scoring affair although each team has the offensive players to put some points on the board. I think the Vikings will play a slightly conservative style of offense in the beginning and try to use the run to set up the pass. I think the Bucs will try to sprinkle in runs but I see more of a short passing game in order, especially with Doug Martin.

Vikings 23 - Buccaneers 18

Week 7 NFL Nuggets

Seahawks 6 - 49ers 13:

- The Seahawks came into this game with a very sound gameplan, but great coaches make the right in-game adjustments and that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did. The hawks took away Alex Smith's primary weapon in the passing game - Vernon Davis. They double and triple teamed him the entire game, chipping him with a linebacker and then having a defensive back pick him up while the linebacker plays underneath. But the 49ers just said, "hey that's fine, you want to double cover Davis and leave Gore alone underneath, we'll take that all day." This was the key in-game adjustment that won the 49ers this game.

- Also, Alex Smith is a fine quarterback when your team is in the lead and you're playing to protect it. But asking him to come from behind and put up points in a hurry is going to be disaster. This might be what ends up deciding how far they go in the playoffs this year with teams like the Falcons who put up points in bunches.

Titans 35 - Bills 34:

- Where do I begin with this game? I'm going to use this space as a rant session so I apologize in advance. If you wish to avoid this, please feel free to scroll past this game.

Let's just go right down the list of issues that this Bills team has going into their bye week.

1. Lack of focus/consistency on defense: With this talented defensive line, there is no reason any running back should have 190+ yards rushing on them, especially with a mediocre talent at quarterback. The Bills show good gap control SOME of the time, and I thought their best game thus far against the run was against the Browns where they held Trent Richardson to 2.3 YPC. That was their most complete game in the run defense department. Their problem is not talent, it's lack of focus. Plain and simple. They do not play with the same urgency and intensity on every play and frankly this is the main reason this team is not 5-2.

2. Bad calls at crucial times: There's plenty of blame to go around the past couple of weeks, even with the narrow victory against Arizona. But one of the main things I have a problem with is the very weird play calling I've noticed from Chan Gailey. In back to back weeks now, I've seen Gailey call a pass late in the game with the lead.

- Against Arizona, it was a Brad Smith pass from the Wildcat formation. I love the fact that he finally called a pass from the Wildcat because I don't think they have been exploiting that part of the game, but in that situation to ask a guy who hasn't thrown a pass in a regular game in a loooong time going against Patrick Peterson is just terrible decision making. The best result would be a touchdown, but the worst result is a turnover giving the other team the chance to go down and tie or win the game - and that's exactly what happened. Jairus Byrd bailed them out with a pick in OT to set them up for the winning field goal.

- Against Tennessee, this past week, on a 3rd down being up 6 points at home, Gailey calls for a pass play despite the Bills shredding Tennessee on the ground. Fitzpatrick's foolish throw aside, that pass better be a high percentage throw at that point in the game (as in essentially a long handoff). That play, of course, ends up in an interception which gives Tennessee the opportunity to score the go ahead touchdown. Chan Gailey - C'mon Man!  

3. Terrible decision-making by Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzy does a lot of smart things on the football field. He puts that offense in a position to succeed with his pre-snap calls a lot more than he doesn't. I'll give him credit there. But for a guy who's supposed to be this "cerebral"quarterback with an ivy league education, he makes some DUMB decisions/throws at crucial points in the game.

Let's go back to the late game INT against the Titans - he says he was trying to hit Donald Jones on the deep comeback because he saw the corner trying to "squat" on the underneath route by Stevie Johnson. But where was the necessity for that throw?! Your head coach puts the ball in your hands to close out the game and you take a huge risk?! instead of just throwing the ball to a high percentage area of the field and giving the receiver a chance to get a first down? He makes a throw that a quarterback should make when they're down 6 points, not up 6 points.


Once the Titans go up and the Bills get another chance to get into field goal range, he throws short and safe passes! Are you kidding me?! A 6-7 yard pass to Stevie Johnson over the middle and then a 1 yard pass to Scott Chandler. Then an incompletion. And then on 4th down and 2 to go, he tries hitting Stevie for 10-12 yards down the sideline! Of all plays, why take that low percentage high risk pass on 4th and 2? There were at least 2 receivers that I counted that were open in the middle of the field and I know things get hectic and its a high pressure situation but Fitzy didn't even look at them. It's almost as if he had his mind made up pre-snap that he was going to Stevie. Did the Bills need yards at that point in the game? Yes, absolutely - especially given the short passes on first and second down. But did the Bills need a first down more than anything to keep them alive? YES! I know Fitzpatrick does not have the arm to be a franchise quarterback, but now he's proving that he cannot avoid making the wrong decisions at the wrong times in the game - an area of supposed strength of his game. Unless there's a drastic turnaround, and I'm not holding my breath, the Bills will be looking for a starting quarterback in next April's draft.

 Ravens 13 - Texans 43:

- Remember when Joe Flacco called himself elite? Yeah, that was dumb. He has the physical tools to be an elite quarterback - I don't doubt that. But he's been having a case of the "Fitzpatricks" lately. Dumb decisions, especially when he feels the pressure to put the team on his back. I get the feeling Flacco wants to be the hero more so than getting out of a hostile environment with a win. Guys like Brady, Brees, and the Manning brothers are satisfied only with a win.

- The Ravens run defense looked okay for the most part. I didn't think Ray Lewis would be missed that much on that front and I don't think he was (at first glance). Also, they got a boost from Terrell Suggs who, quite honestly, is a medical miracle. Nobody in their right mind expected Suggs to be active, let alone productive. He might be the boost, long term, that pulls this defense out of the basement.

Browns 13 - Colts 17:

- Heck of a game by Brandon Weeden. Josh Gordon - you gotta catch that pass! I know the sun got into your eyes, or so you say, but you gotta hang on to that. This team is young but they have a lot of talent on there. They're a few pieces away from having the talent to compete with any team in the league, but they still have a long way to go mentally.


I pretty much stopped watching football for the rest of the day after the Bills loss. I just couldn't bear it. Plus my choices were either the Raiders - Jaguars or a game in which I hate both teams: Patriots - Jets. I was a little happy to see the Jets lose but I couldn't give you anything in either of these games since I watched almost none of it.

Lions 7 - Bears 13:

- Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop the Detroit Lions. Put your best corner on Calvin Johnson and play 2-deep safeties over the top. The Lions don't really have a running game except for occasional success and until they find that or a second wide receiver who will command more attention, teams will be content with stacking just six or seven defenders in the box. Mikel LeShoure looked pretty good on some runs last night but he is not doing it consistently enough to command any respect and he keeps putting the ball on the ground. I don't really believe in any curses, but man that Madden curse sure seems to be ringing true for Calvin Johnson this year. In fact, every year since its inception, at least one player on the Madden cover has been cursed. I say "at least one player" because the only player (as far as I know) that has "defeated" the dreaded curse has been Larry Fitzgerald and that year he was on the cover with Troy Polamalu who had an injury-filled dreadful season.

- Stafford looked ordinary and a lot of that was the Bears defense but he's been looking underwhelming for the past 3-4 weeks now. His tendency to latch on to Calvin Johnson is troubling, considering he's supposed to be a veteran. Now that Nate Burleson is out for the season, either Titus Young or Ryan Broyles will have to step up or this Lions team will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.