NFL Week 10 Nuggets

- I find it ironic that I really don't see much difference in the officiating between the replacement refs and the regular guys. It seems that the replacement guys made a lot of obvious mistakes but got some of the bigger calls right (the Green Bay/Seattle debacle notwithstanding). I see the regular refs make equal number of mistakes, if not more, but they are just not as obvious to the casual fan. I saw horrendous calls that possibly altered the game in the St.Louis/San Francisco, the New England/Bufalo, the Pittsburgh/Kansas City, the Carolina/Denver , and the Philadelphia/Dallas games. Maybe the replacement refs weren't so bad after all.

- I think the rules in place intended to protect quarterbacks within the pocket are proving to be more hurtful when they are outside the pocket. This week, we've seen concussions to at least four starting quarterbacks, two of which were vicious hits they took on the run (Alex Smith and Jay Cutler). I get frustrated just watching these ticky-tacky calls on defenders when they take a shot at a quarterback in the pocket, so I know the defenders must be frustrated as well. But once the QB starts running the ball outside the pocket, he's just like any other runner and you know defenders are licking their chops at a shot at the guy that is so protected by the NFL - they might as well just put a red jersey on him. I completely understand the business side of the NFL's decision to implement these rules. It's a QB-driven league and they are protecting their investment. I also understand the concern for player safety after decades of poor tackling form that starts as early as pee wee football and results in multiple concussions. But some of these calls against defenders is threatening the integrity of the game. These plays are so bang-bang, high speed, and the quarterbacks nowadays are all great emmy-worthy actors. I hate seeing a 3rd down stop by the defense nullified and a free 15 yards awarded to the offense on what should be a non-call.

- Two players that impress me even more now that they are coming off injury this year: Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning. Either of them are a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year or the NFL MVP. I think AP impresses me the most because of how soon he came back from that injury and how amazing he has been thus far. A modern medical marvel. Running backs with ACL injuries seldom regain their form, and even then it takes them at least a season to work through it. AP tore his ACL last winter and by September he was back tearing up the league.

- As purely an idea at this point, they should allow coaches to challenge any two referee calls during the game (except for maybe pure judgement calls like when the play was blown dead). If the coach/team gets both of the calls to go his way, then they get an additional challenge - just like the current challenge system. I know the refs, generally, do an amazing job of officiating the game. But in this age of technology, there is no reason to have bad calls affect the outcome of the game. And don't give me that crap about the inconvenience of the game being stopped. If it affects fans so much, why aren't they flocking to watching soccer? NFL games have TV timeouts after every first down it seems like. No wonder the Chiefs games don't get many commercials.

- The Ravens caught a lucky break by possibly not having to face Big Ben in either of their regular division games. In a scheduling anomaly, the Ravens and Steelers face each other in 2 of the next 3 games. The first game is in Pittsburgh and Flacco and the Ravens have been atrocious away from Baltimore this year. Nothing has been confirmed yet but it looks like Big Ben is almost sure to miss the first game. He may be back in time for the game in Baltimore but the Ravens (and Flacco) are unstoppable at home. While on paper, this is a clear advantage for the Ravens, I would never rest easy knowing Mike Tomlin is across the field.

- Say what you want about the Kansas City Chiefs, they know their shortcomings at Quarterback. I thought I was watching the Jacksonville Jaguars last night as the Chiefs ran basically three plays over and over and over again. A run to the right, a play-action pass off the run action to the right, and a pass play with multiple curl routes. Like the Jags on Thursday night, the Chiefs also threw a pick as a defender jumped the curl route. In the end, the game was way closer than it should've been. But as a play-caller, I don't understand why they wouldn't change it up a little bit once the defense has shown that it has adjusted to your base plays?  I understand the weather factor, but that is no excuse. Both teams have to deal with that. I would hope Cassel isn't that bad. If he is, and if the coaching staff doesn't believe in him, why put him out there? Either way this team is the favorite to pick Matt Barkley this off season. 

NFL Nuggets

Just some thoughts I had on week 9 games I got to watch.

- Bills have to get the ball in CJ Spiller's hands more often. I agree that he is not a running back that you hand the ball off to 20+ times. But he needs to touch the ball 15-20 times a game whether that be via carries or catches.

- The Eagles offensive line is even worse than I thought they were. And losing their right tackle for the rest of the season is not going to make things any better. But all of that said, Vick has almost no pocket presence. In the Monday night game against the Saints (who sacked him 7 times!) I counted at least 2 sacks that I am comfortable blaming Vick for because the defense showed the blitz pre-snap and Vick didn't recognize it and then post-snap he continued through his progression instead of throwing a hot route. If I'm Andy Reid, I'm leaving in tight ends to help on passing plays, especially deep ones.

- The Eagles-Cowboys game this coming week is huge. I think this is a springboard game for each team to turn their seasons around. And the way the Giants and Eli are playing right now, 9-7 might be enough to win that division.

- Kansas City needs a quarterback worse than any team in the league right now. And they will probably have the first crack at it with the inside track to the #1 pick. I'm just not sure I'd want to be taking a quarterback that high in the upcoming draft. Nobody really excites me but in a QB-driven league the odds are pretty good that it will be a quarterback at #1 overall. Matt Cassel has proven to me, every year since he left the Patriots, that he's a system quarterback. And Brady Quinn....yeeeshh. It's too bad too because I thought he would end up being a pretty good one. He's just had no continuity of any kind in terms of coaching.

- Speaking of teams that need a quarterback, I think Jacksonville needs to be looking for one next year but they probably won't because they invested such a high pick on Blaine Gabbert - who is turning out to be a bust so far. They also need to get him some help on the offensive line and play calling. You can't call the 8-yard curl route 15 times a game and expect it not to be picked off.

- I don't understand how/why they did not review the Andrew Luck 2nd rushing "touchdown" in last night's Colts-Jags epic match up. Supposedly the ref got the call from upstairs that it was reviewed and relayed to the head official on the field however the latter never made any announcement to the fans/coaches which led to Mike Mularkey blowing a gasket at the 20 yard line. I think that was a goal line stand. There's a brief second where you can see on the replay that the ball looks to be over the goal-line but it also looked like Luck did not have complete control over it at that point. Either way, I don't necessarily have a problem with the call on the field but that there was not communication from the head official before the extra point that the previous play was reviewed upstairs and upheld.

RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (Part 2)

Part 1 here

In my last post I concluded that based on stats alone RGIII is clearly out-performing Andrew Luck thus far. However, stats rarely tell the whole story. Let's dive in a little bit.

For all the hoopla about RGIII's arm strength and deep ball accuracy, the Redskins coaching staff haven't quite turned him loose yet. Most of this throws have been short ones or on the run. Essentially they are putting their young signal caller in the best position to win right now and that is by utilizing his skills but making up for his obvious deficiencies being a rookie in the league. Griffin has had only 5 completions in 15 total attempts this season that traveled more than 20 yards downfield. On the contrary, Luck is 12 for 35 on throws more than 20 yards. So the Colts have been allowing Luck to take a lot more shots down the field - more than double that of the Redskins with RGIII.

When I watch the tape, I notice RGIII getting rid of the ball very often after his first read, sometimes after his second read. I see him making quick decisions with the ball and getting it out in the hands of his receivers in space. I don't see him going through his entire progression on most plays. On the other hand, I see Luck doing the opposite more often than RGIII. Now, no quarterback should be going through all or even most of his progressions on most plays - that would be a sign that either a) his receivers just can't get open or b) the quarterback is being indecisive. But I do notice the Colts giving Luck a lot more progressions to go through than the Redskins are with RGIII.

Then there's the rushing ability. Obviously RGIII has an advantage in that department. He is the one with special talent as a runner and a coaching staff that is obviously willing to let him run, despite concerns over exposing him to big hits such as the one he took against the Falcons. In half a season, RGIII has proven to be a dynamic runner. But long term, this trend is disturbing, in my opinion. On the other side, Luck has actually been running the ball a healthy amount of times as well. 26 attempts for 143 yards and 3 TDs. That's definitely more than your average quarterback in the NFL.

Based on the three points above, my conclusions are as follows. The Colts are throwing a much more conventional NFL offense at Luck and are likely putting a lot more plays on Luck's plate than the Redskins are with RGIII. The Redskins are protecting their franchise guy by nurturing him as a passer. I wish they'd do the same with him as a runner. The Colts are, ironically enough, taking the Peyton Manning approach with Luck. They are giving him the whole playbook and allowing him to go through his growing pains. They don't seem to be spoon feeding or watering down the playbook because Luck is a rookie. And Luck is doing pretty well, given the circumstances. He's got the Colts at 4-3 and in the AFC landscape as it stands today that might be good enough to get into the playoffs. Whereas, the Redskins do seem to be watering down the playbook and giving Griffin short, high-percentage passes while taking the occasional deep shot. They're also allowing Griffin to use his 4.41 speed by calling designed runs and option plays. Obviously both franchises are hoping that their respective rookie quarterback turns into a franchise guy for the long run and are developing him as such. But it would seem that the Redskins are in a little bit more "win-now" mode than the Colts but are receiving opposite results as they are just 3-5 and in a tough NFC. Obviously there's a lot more that goes into the records besides just the way the team manages their quarterbacks and how those guys perform. Both teams have played different opponents, their defenses are different, etc etc.

In the long run, I think both teams are taking the right approach (for the most part) with their respective rookie quarterback. I have always been impressed with Luck's knowledge and cerebral approach to the game and he's showing that he can handle the full playbook. Whereas RGIII works best when he's allowed to just go out there and make plays instead of trying to make him a pocket passer that will go through multiple progressions before throwing the ball. The one issue I do have though is how Washington has been constantly putting Griffin in a situation where he is exposed to big hits. He is not Cam Newton. He is fairly small in stature in comparison to the prototypical NFL quarterback. He will not be around for many games if he keeps taking those type of hits. I understand that it's part of his game, maybe even the best part of his game, but you can't get short-sighted with your franchise quarterback.

I'll try and do another review at the end of the season. I'm interested to see if these trends continue or if anything changes. Hope you found it interesting and I always welcome a healthy debate on any of the posts I make. Feel free to comment below.

RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (part 1)

First off, I hope you were not too affected by "Superstorm Sandy." I imagine if you were, you probably wouldn't be reading this blog until maybe next week. In any case, I hope you and your loved ones are all safe and sound and are not too inconvenienced in the aftermath of the storm.

I kinda took this week to look at some things on my blog and have decided on a new format. I won't be doing the weekly picks and predictions or the week in review. Frankly, I just don't get the opportunity to watch as many games as I'd like over the week and you can probably get posts like that on any of the major sports sites. Instead, I'd like to delve a little deeper into a particular team or player's performance based on what I see for that week or even over a few weeks.

In light of the new format, I thought a good way to kick it off would be a mid-season review between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III - the #1 and 2 overall pick, respectively, in this year's draft.

TNF preview/prediction

Bucaneers - Vikings:

The Bucs and Vikings are interesting teams. Both are young, although the Vikes probably have more veteran leadership (but the younger quarterback). This is a tough game to pick because this is a case of "the immovable object moves the unstoppable force" kind of thing. The Bucs' best offensive strength, week 7 explosion notwithstanding, is running the football and that is the Vikings' defensive strength. On the other side, the Vikes are very good and dependent on running the football and the Bucs are also very good at stopping the run. The Bucs have been force feeding the ball to Vincent Jackson and the Vikings have been shutting down opposing #1 wide receivers. Something's gotta give and with the rules in today's NFL, I'm giving the edge to offense.

I think Adrian Peterson will keep the running attack successful enough that the Bucs can't get away with playing two-deep coverage against Percy Harvin and co.  Because this is a Thursday night game, I'm expecting another relatively low scoring affair although each team has the offensive players to put some points on the board. I think the Vikings will play a slightly conservative style of offense in the beginning and try to use the run to set up the pass. I think the Bucs will try to sprinkle in runs but I see more of a short passing game in order, especially with Doug Martin.

Vikings 23 - Buccaneers 18

Week 7 NFL Nuggets

Seahawks 6 - 49ers 13:

- The Seahawks came into this game with a very sound gameplan, but great coaches make the right in-game adjustments and that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did. The hawks took away Alex Smith's primary weapon in the passing game - Vernon Davis. They double and triple teamed him the entire game, chipping him with a linebacker and then having a defensive back pick him up while the linebacker plays underneath. But the 49ers just said, "hey that's fine, you want to double cover Davis and leave Gore alone underneath, we'll take that all day." This was the key in-game adjustment that won the 49ers this game.

- Also, Alex Smith is a fine quarterback when your team is in the lead and you're playing to protect it. But asking him to come from behind and put up points in a hurry is going to be disaster. This might be what ends up deciding how far they go in the playoffs this year with teams like the Falcons who put up points in bunches.

Titans 35 - Bills 34:

- Where do I begin with this game? I'm going to use this space as a rant session so I apologize in advance. If you wish to avoid this, please feel free to scroll past this game.

Let's just go right down the list of issues that this Bills team has going into their bye week.

1. Lack of focus/consistency on defense: With this talented defensive line, there is no reason any running back should have 190+ yards rushing on them, especially with a mediocre talent at quarterback. The Bills show good gap control SOME of the time, and I thought their best game thus far against the run was against the Browns where they held Trent Richardson to 2.3 YPC. That was their most complete game in the run defense department. Their problem is not talent, it's lack of focus. Plain and simple. They do not play with the same urgency and intensity on every play and frankly this is the main reason this team is not 5-2.

2. Bad calls at crucial times: There's plenty of blame to go around the past couple of weeks, even with the narrow victory against Arizona. But one of the main things I have a problem with is the very weird play calling I've noticed from Chan Gailey. In back to back weeks now, I've seen Gailey call a pass late in the game with the lead.

- Against Arizona, it was a Brad Smith pass from the Wildcat formation. I love the fact that he finally called a pass from the Wildcat because I don't think they have been exploiting that part of the game, but in that situation to ask a guy who hasn't thrown a pass in a regular game in a loooong time going against Patrick Peterson is just terrible decision making. The best result would be a touchdown, but the worst result is a turnover giving the other team the chance to go down and tie or win the game - and that's exactly what happened. Jairus Byrd bailed them out with a pick in OT to set them up for the winning field goal.

- Against Tennessee, this past week, on a 3rd down being up 6 points at home, Gailey calls for a pass play despite the Bills shredding Tennessee on the ground. Fitzpatrick's foolish throw aside, that pass better be a high percentage throw at that point in the game (as in essentially a long handoff). That play, of course, ends up in an interception which gives Tennessee the opportunity to score the go ahead touchdown. Chan Gailey - C'mon Man!  

3. Terrible decision-making by Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzy does a lot of smart things on the football field. He puts that offense in a position to succeed with his pre-snap calls a lot more than he doesn't. I'll give him credit there. But for a guy who's supposed to be this "cerebral"quarterback with an ivy league education, he makes some DUMB decisions/throws at crucial points in the game.

Let's go back to the late game INT against the Titans - he says he was trying to hit Donald Jones on the deep comeback because he saw the corner trying to "squat" on the underneath route by Stevie Johnson. But where was the necessity for that throw?! Your head coach puts the ball in your hands to close out the game and you take a huge risk?! instead of just throwing the ball to a high percentage area of the field and giving the receiver a chance to get a first down? He makes a throw that a quarterback should make when they're down 6 points, not up 6 points.


Once the Titans go up and the Bills get another chance to get into field goal range, he throws short and safe passes! Are you kidding me?! A 6-7 yard pass to Stevie Johnson over the middle and then a 1 yard pass to Scott Chandler. Then an incompletion. And then on 4th down and 2 to go, he tries hitting Stevie for 10-12 yards down the sideline! Of all plays, why take that low percentage high risk pass on 4th and 2? There were at least 2 receivers that I counted that were open in the middle of the field and I know things get hectic and its a high pressure situation but Fitzy didn't even look at them. It's almost as if he had his mind made up pre-snap that he was going to Stevie. Did the Bills need yards at that point in the game? Yes, absolutely - especially given the short passes on first and second down. But did the Bills need a first down more than anything to keep them alive? YES! I know Fitzpatrick does not have the arm to be a franchise quarterback, but now he's proving that he cannot avoid making the wrong decisions at the wrong times in the game - an area of supposed strength of his game. Unless there's a drastic turnaround, and I'm not holding my breath, the Bills will be looking for a starting quarterback in next April's draft.

 Ravens 13 - Texans 43:

- Remember when Joe Flacco called himself elite? Yeah, that was dumb. He has the physical tools to be an elite quarterback - I don't doubt that. But he's been having a case of the "Fitzpatricks" lately. Dumb decisions, especially when he feels the pressure to put the team on his back. I get the feeling Flacco wants to be the hero more so than getting out of a hostile environment with a win. Guys like Brady, Brees, and the Manning brothers are satisfied only with a win.

- The Ravens run defense looked okay for the most part. I didn't think Ray Lewis would be missed that much on that front and I don't think he was (at first glance). Also, they got a boost from Terrell Suggs who, quite honestly, is a medical miracle. Nobody in their right mind expected Suggs to be active, let alone productive. He might be the boost, long term, that pulls this defense out of the basement.

Browns 13 - Colts 17:

- Heck of a game by Brandon Weeden. Josh Gordon - you gotta catch that pass! I know the sun got into your eyes, or so you say, but you gotta hang on to that. This team is young but they have a lot of talent on there. They're a few pieces away from having the talent to compete with any team in the league, but they still have a long way to go mentally.


I pretty much stopped watching football for the rest of the day after the Bills loss. I just couldn't bear it. Plus my choices were either the Raiders - Jaguars or a game in which I hate both teams: Patriots - Jets. I was a little happy to see the Jets lose but I couldn't give you anything in either of these games since I watched almost none of it.

Lions 7 - Bears 13:

- Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop the Detroit Lions. Put your best corner on Calvin Johnson and play 2-deep safeties over the top. The Lions don't really have a running game except for occasional success and until they find that or a second wide receiver who will command more attention, teams will be content with stacking just six or seven defenders in the box. Mikel LeShoure looked pretty good on some runs last night but he is not doing it consistently enough to command any respect and he keeps putting the ball on the ground. I don't really believe in any curses, but man that Madden curse sure seems to be ringing true for Calvin Johnson this year. In fact, every year since its inception, at least one player on the Madden cover has been cursed. I say "at least one player" because the only player (as far as I know) that has "defeated" the dreaded curse has been Larry Fitzgerald and that year he was on the cover with Troy Polamalu who had an injury-filled dreadful season.

- Stafford looked ordinary and a lot of that was the Bears defense but he's been looking underwhelming for the past 3-4 weeks now. His tendency to latch on to Calvin Johnson is troubling, considering he's supposed to be a veteran. Now that Nate Burleson is out for the season, either Titus Young or Ryan Broyles will have to step up or this Lions team will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. 

NFL - Week 7 Picks and Predictions

Already picked: 49ers 17 - Seahawks 13 (Result: 49ers 13 - Seahawks 6)

Cardinals 17 - Vikings 28:

I've talked in the past about how the Cardinals 4-2 record is a mirage. The Vikings have a similar perception as well but I do think they're more real than the Cardinals who will be without Kevin Kolb and starting John Skelton - not that it really matters which one of those two they start in this game. The Vikings are excellent against the run and I expect the Cardinals underwhelming rushing attack and putrid offensive line to be over-matched. When the Cards are forced to abandon the run, I just don't see myself trusting John Skelton much. 

On the other hand, the Vikings actually have a very good running game match-up against a soft-in-the-middle Cardinals defense. This will only help Christian Ponder in the passing game, though the going will be tougher there against Patrick Peterson. I think the Vikes put this game away into the 3rd quarter and run the clock out in the 4th. 

Cowboys 31 - Panthers 24:

It's make or break time for the Cowboys and they'll be without their most reliable running weapon against a terrible run defense. In this juicy match up against the leaky Panthers defense, I expect even Felix Jones and Philip Tanner to produce enough ground success to keep the safeties honest. Say what you want about Romo, he's given this team a chance to win in most of their games. Dez Bryant showed some great signs last week but then, almost on cue, he had a mental lapse and dropped what would've been a game-tying two point conversion. Physically, he has the skills to be the best in the NFL. Mentally, he's a work in progress but the improvement in his last two games is noticeable. In the end, I think the Cowboys just have too many weapons for this weak Panther defense to handle. 

You know who else it's "make or break" time for? Cam Newton. He seems to have taken a step back from his sensational rookie season. He's locking on to his first receiver too much - a trend I noticed early last year, but one he was able to overcome in the first half of last season based on pure talent alone. He needs to be more decisive in the pocket and he needs to learn how to look off safeties. He's so incredibly talented that I think the tendency is for him to get lazy with the details. Unfortunately for him, everyone in the NFL is really talented and as they say, "the devil's in the details." This talented Cowboys secondary will be a very good test for Newton coming off a bye week where, hopefully, he worked on correcting those mistakes. 

Saints 17 - Buccaneers 27:

The Saints get Jonathan Vilma back but I don't think he'll be enough to help this defense. On offense they will be without Jimmy Graham and the Saints generally don't do as well outdoors as they do in the friendly confines of the Superdome. I expect the going to be tougher than one would expect against a Buccaneers defense that is coming off a bye week. I like teams coming off a bye against a divisional opponent. The Saints have not been able to come with a running game despite their stable of backs and I don't see that changing this week against a great defensive front seven. 

I expect the Buccaneers to come out attacking and taking advantage of the individual match-ups against the Saints. Usually when your team is over-matched on talent on defense, teams will do one of two things - they will either play to limit the damage (coaches like Dick Jauron have employed this philosophy in the past) or they will be very aggressive in order to get to the quarterback and often they might be over-aggressive. I expect the latter approach by the Saints and to counter it, I expect the Bucs to utilize quick throws and screens to Doug Martin and open up the down-field passing game.  


Packers 27 - Rams 13:

If the Rams had a healthy Danny Amendola and one more decent receiving option, this would be a very good game. Unfortunately for them, they don't and I don't expect the Rams to be able to keep up with a Packers offense that has found its groove. The Rams defense is very good but often plays from behind and is on the field too much to have consistent success. The Packers will be without nose tackle BJ Raji and I think Jeff Fisher will do his best to run the ball and keep it out of Rodgers' hands - but he doesn't need much time to score as evidenced by his surgery of the previously vaunted Texans defense. 

Redskins 24 - Giants 27:

The Giants typically don't do well against the NFC West so I was tempted to pick the Redskins here. But the Giants defense finally came alive last week on the west coast and I think they keep the momentum going against the explosive and ever-dangerous RGIII. The Redskins, in my opinion, are playing with fire by allowing RGIII to run so much. They've already had one big scare two weeks ago when he took a big hit and had "a mild concussion," which, I've been told, does not exist. You either have the symptoms of a concussion or you don't. These symptoms may be "mild" but that won't be clear until you've given it a couple of days to work itself out. The Redskins called it a "mild concussion" almost immediately after the game. Anyways, with his frame and the exposure to big hits, the Redskins won't be so lucky next time. 

The Giants might be forced to limit a red hot Ahmad Bradshaw but they have enough weapons in the running game to keep up the success on the ground. Hakeem Nicks finally seems to be turning a corner in his recovery and I expect him to tear up this sub-par Redskins secondary.  The Giants offensive line has not given up a sack in three games so this will be a good match up to watch against a Redskins pass rush that is without Brian Orakpo. 

P.S. - I plan on doing a more in depth post on the development of RGIII v. Andrew Luck midway through the season. Some of my points may surprise you. 

Ravens 27 - Texans 24:

A month ago i would've picked this as a 10-13 ball game but injuries have piled up quickly on both defenses - probably the Ravens more so than the Texans - making this somewhat of a high scoring game. The Texans will surely test this leaky run defense with Arian Foster early and often which might open things up for Owen Daniels in the play-action passing game. Daniels, by the way, seems to be Schaub's #1 target with Andre Johnson being mostly double-covered. 

The Ravens need to get back to force-feeding the football to Ray Rice. Flacco is out of rhythm in the passing game and the best way to get him back on track is to give him some high percentage throws to begin the game. With Clay Matthews out, I expect the Ravens to pick on the Texans linebackers with crossing routes and this will hopefully draw the safeties down and open up the deep ball to Torrey Smith.  I know Flacco struggles on the road but hopefully Terrell Suggs returning to the lineup gives this team enough of a boost to outlast the Texans. 

Titans 27- Bills 31:

This game has the potential to be a shoot out, however its not because either offense is bursting with talent. It's just that both defenses have been downright atrocious against the run and the pass so far. The Bills play an attacking type of run defense where they try to hit the ball carrier before he gets going. However, when players don't maintain gap discipline while maintaining this approach to stopping the run, they can give up big chunks of yardage. And then you add Chris Johnson to the equation who has the potential to take it to the house on any given play and seems to have found his groove after a rough start to the season. Needless to say this could be a boom or bust day for the Bills run defense and the Titans running game. 

The Bills, of course, have their own tandem of backs to run the ball down Tennessee's throat and they're much better at run blocking and the Titans aren't that good at defending the run either. Both pass defenses have suffered as well and the Titans get Kenny Britt at full speed for the first time this year which is why I expect this to be a shoot out.I'm giving the edge to the Bills, who usually play much better at home, coming off a huge "gut-check" victory in Arizona.

Browns 24 - Colts 21:

Coming off a huge emotional win against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, Andrew Luck and the Colts got steam rolled by the Jets?! You know, the Jets of the all-pro running back Shonn Greene and quarterback Mark Sanchez. Right. And the development of young Andrew Luck goes on. The Jets completely blanketed Reggie Wayne and Luck was flustered when he couldn't find his top option. The Browns got Joe Haden back last week and you can bet they will try the same strategy with him. I expect the Colts to lean more on the running game and the secondary weapons (Fleener, Allen, Hilton, Avery etc.) if the Browns employ the same strategy and take away Reggie Wayne.

On the flip side, the Colts will be without Robert Mathis again and all-pro Dwight Freeney will have to take on all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas. Brandon Weeden does his best work in a clean pocket and I expect him to be clean for much of the game. The Browns' young receivers are showing signs of development, particularly Josh Gordon. Now he needs to show that he's not a one-trick pony and run some short and intermediate routes for completions. This will be somewhat of a shootout but I give the edge to the team with the better defense and running game and that team is the Browns.

Jets 20 - Patriots 35 (Lock of the Week):

If the Jets had Revis, Mark Sanchez was passing well, and the Jets defense was back to 2009 form, then they would have a good shot at winning this game. Sadly, for them, none of these things are true and right now I pick the Patriots 10 out of 10 times. The Pats are coming off a huge loss against the Seahawks and are motivated at home. Rex Ryan does his talking in the week leading up to the game, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady do their talking on the field by putting up points in bunches. The Pats got talented tight end Aaron Hernandez back last week but he was being phased into the offense. This week, I expect more snaps for Hernandez and thus more match up problems for the Jets. The Pats have too many weapons and have shown this year that they can even run the ball to earn a victory. 

The Pats defense has been excellent against the run thus far but has some major issues in the back end against the deep ball. I still don't expect Mark Sanchez to have too much success, asides from maybe a play or two. The Jets had majority of their running success last week up the middle and the Pats will have Vince Wilfork waiting for Shonn Greene. Honestly, even if the Jets had Revis, I'd have hard time not picking the Patriots in this situation.

Jaguars 13 - Raiders 24:

The Raiders found their pass rush last week against Matt Ryan and the Falcons and almost pulled off the upset. This week they get to go back home and face an underwhelming Jaguars team. Carson Palmer gets a healthy squad of receivers this week and the Raider running game is still a work in progress. I expect the Raiders to have moderate success against this Jaguars defense that has been equally underwhelming. I just don't think the Jags have the weapons on offense, or a quarterback for that matter, that can take advantage of the holes in the Raiders defense.

Steelers 20 - Bengals 17:

The Steelers cannot be this bad. They've been terrible away from Heinz field this year and they cannot run the ball to save their lives. They've also been hit hard with injuries, especially on the offensive line. With the running backs also banged up, the expectation would be to put the game in Big Ben's hands with the passing game. But I think the Steelers get stubborn about running the ball and plod their way with Jonathan Dwyer, Barron Batch etc. to a hard-hitting, low-scoring, divisional victory away from home.

The Bengals' passing game has been clicking thus far into the season but the same cannot be said about their running game. The signing of BJGE has been a bust so far and the Bengals lost Bernard Scott last week. Third-down specialist Brian Leonard is also out for this game. I expect Big Ben and the Steelers to be able to overcome the offensive line injuries better than the Bengals to overcome the lack of a running game. Coming off an upset at the hands of the Titans, I think the Steelers will be motivated and focused to leave Cincinnati with a victory.

Lions 17 - Bears 28:   

The Bears are coming off a bye, and now get the Lions at home on MNF. This Bears defense is impressive and is hitting on all cylinders..the Lions, meanwhile, have been pretty bad on defense thus far. I don't know what has happened to this defensive line. They have so much talent there but they don't seem to be getting it done and the rest of the back seven has never been that impressive. The Bears have had major offensive line issues but with the bye week, hopefully, they worked on their pass protection woes. Matt Forte has done well against the Lions in his career and I expect that to continue on Monday night. 

Matt Stafford looks ordinary this season. His footwork has been terrible and thus his accuracy has suffered. I realize that the Lions need a receiver across from Calvin Johnson to step up but I think this is more of a Stafford issue than a #2 wide receiver issue. To compound this problem, the Lions do not have a running game. I was surprised when they didn't sign some veteran insurance this off-season behind an inexperienced Mikel LeShoure and a brittle Kevin Smith. I know they had Jahvid Best on the PUP but they would've been foolish to depend on him being active. Anyways, I give Lions credit for pulling off an upset last week against the reeling Eagles but Soldier Field won't be as friendly this week.  

Last Week's Picks: 8-6