| 2014-15 NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTION | |||||||||
| DAVE | JAY | ||||||||
| SEEDING | WILDCARD | DIVISIONAL | CONFERENCE | SUPERBOWL | SEEDING | WILDCARD | DIVISIONAL | CONFERENCE | SUPERBOWL |
| AFC | AFC | ||||||||
| 1Denver | Baltimore | 1 New England | Baltimore | ||||||
| Denver | New England | ||||||||
| 2 New England | Baltimore | 2 Denver | Indianapolis | ||||||
| San Diego | NY Jets | ||||||||
| 3 Baltimore | Denver | 3 Baltimore | New England | ||||||
| New England | Denver | ||||||||
| 4 Indianapolis | Indy | 4 Indianapolis | Indianapolis | ||||||
| New England | AFC CHAMP | Denver | AFC CHAMP | ||||||
| 5 Cincinati | Cincinati | Denver | 5 Pittsburgh | Baltimore | New England | ||||
| Cincinati | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| 6 San Diego | WINNER | 6 NY Jets | WINNER | ||||||
| Denver | Seattle | ||||||||
| NFC | NFC | ||||||||
| 1 New Orleans | Green Bay | NFC CHAMP | 1 New Orleans | Green Bay | NFC CHAMP | ||||
| New Orleans | New Orleans | New Orleans | Seattle | ||||||
| 2 Seattle | Chicago | 2 Seattle | Philadelphia | ||||||
| San Fran | San Fran | ||||||||
| 3 Green Bay | New Orleans | 3 Green Bay | New Orleans | ||||||
| Green Bay | Seattle | ||||||||
| 4 Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 4 Philadelphia | Philadelphia | ||||||
| Seattle | Seattle | ||||||||
| 5 Chicago | Green Bay | 5 Chicago | Green Bay | ||||||
| Chicago | Chicago | ||||||||
| 6 San Fran | 6 San Fran | ||||||||
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
2014 NFL Picks
Thursday, September 5, 2013
NFL Playoff Picks - 2013 Season
For the past couple of years, before the first game of the season, my buddy and I have guessed the teams we each think will make the playoffs and go on to win the Superbowl. Last year, we both had the Ravens winning the big game. I had them playing the Falcons. My buddy had them playing the 49ers. Obviously he won, and I had to buy him dinner.
Anyways, here are my picks for this year.
Me:
AFC:
1. Broncos (bye)
2. Patriots (bye)
3. Bengals
4. Colts
5. Ravens
6. Chiefs
Wildcard Round:
#3 Bengals v. #6 Chiefs = #3 Bengals
#4 Colts v. #5 Ravens = #4 Colts
Divisional Round:
#1 Broncos v. #4 Colts = #1 Broncos
#2 Patriots v. #3 Bengals = #2 Patriots
Championship game:
#1 Broncos v. #2 Patriots = #1 Broncos
NFC:
1. Falcons (bye)
2. Niners (bye)
3. Cowboys
4. Packers
5. Seahawks
6. Redskins
Wildcard Round:
#3 Cowboys v. #6 Redskins = #3 Cowboys
#4 Packers v. #5 Seahawks = #4 Packers
Divisional Round:
#1 Falcons v. #3 Cowboys = #3 Cowboys
#2 Niners v. #4 Packers = #2 Niners
Championship game:
#2 Niners v. #3 Cowboys = #2 Niners
SUPERBOWL:
Niners v. Broncos = Niners
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Belichick spills the beans, and Chad and Pacman finally get it!
It's June. It's supposed to be the NFL off-season. It's OTA and mini-camp season. It's the season that is dominated by boring baseball plays on Sportscenter Top 10 and other boring NFL "news "that is pumped up to be ever so important by the media. "Coach X said Player Y was dominating OTA's and is poised to have a huge year." Awesome, can't wait to draft all 50 guys on my fantasy squad this year only to watch them fall flat on their face.
So why am I bothering to blog about this? Well, unless you've been living under a rock for the past week, you already know that Chad "OchoCinco" Johnson is headed to jail for 30 days, Adam "Pacman" Jones has been arrested and charged with assault and the Evil Empire (Read: New England Patriots) have signed #1 Jesus fan Tim Tebow.
Chad Johnson might be a funny guy, but he's an idiot. First off, if you are on probation for domestic violence for head butting your former wife, and then you violate that probation due to a "miscommunication", any court appearance you make should be in a business suit....not a button down half-sleeve like you're going clubbing in Miami straight after. Secondly, when you want the judge and the opposing party to do you a solid, you don't show up in aforementioned button down half-sleeve, chewing gum, and smack your lawyer in the "back-side" and make the courtroom laugh out loud during your proceedings. Finally, don't tweet about it after you get sent to jail.
Pacman, bro, you just don't get it. You cannot keep your nose clean. I don't understand why he is on an NFL roster. There's been guys that have been cut for far less. And I get that he's very talented. But he's a headache and a liability. He cannot help your team from jail. Pacman was charged with assault because he allegedly assaulted a woman outside a Cincinnati bar. Now, there's three versions to this story just like any - Pacman's, his victim's, and the truth. According to Pacman the alleged victim and her friend were taunting him and later asked for his autograph at which point the principled Mr. Jones declined politely and then the alleged victim threw a beer bottle at Pacman who, in an act to defend himself, hit the alleged victim in the face. According to the alleged victim, "He was harassing my friends and saying derogatory things towards my friend and I stood up to him and he called me a 'bitch' and punched me in the head." Now the video does not show her throw a bottle at him but instead does show her pour beer at him. I've seen some crazy white chicks but never a 110 lb girl pour a beer on a jacked up NFL player with his even bigger friend next to him for no reason. Who knows what happened. All I know is, Pacman, shouldn't you be at home reading newspaper and then sipping on your lemonade before you go to bed at 10pm?
Finally, Tywin Lannister, I mean, Bill Belichick...touche. (Yes that was a Game of Thrones reference. If you don't watch it, screw you). Nobody gives out virtually no information in his press conferences like the evil genius. And he's mastered it. He enjoys it, evidenced by the smirk that escapes his grip every now and then. I listened to his nine minute press conference after the Patriots signed Tim Tebow to a two year contract, and I think I counted one instance where Billy B refers to Tebow by name. In fact, he started off that press conference like he was just talking about the Patriots offseason in general, as if Tebow was just one piece of the enormous puzzle. That's exactly how it should be. Love him or hate him, you gotta respect Belichick. He either knows exactly how they will use Tebow or he doesn't, but what will he gain from relaying that information? It stands in such stark contrast to how the Jets handled Tebow.
As far as Tebow, he has been signed to one of two or three teams that I consider are perfect places for him to land for several reasons:
1. There will never be a question as to who the starting quarterback of the New England Patriots is. As long as Brady is healthy, he's the guy. No amount of media questioning or fan/front office pressure can make Tebow the starter in New England.
2. Nobody knows how to use Tebow in the NFL better than Josh McDaniels. He, formerly the head coach of the Broncos, who traded three picks to draft Tebow in the first round and hitch his team's success and his future as a head coach to Tebow.
3. No other team handles media scrutiny better than the New England Patriots. Belichick's press conference was just a taste. Later on, Tebow's introduction to the media consisted of a 30 second "hello" followed by no questions. Again, in stark contrast to how the New York Jets handled his signing just last year.
4. Belichick loves versatility. He covets it in his players. That's why you see him pick relative unknowns in the draft every year. Dare I say, it's the skill he covets the most. And that's exactly what Tebow brings to the table, athletically. He can play fullback, H-back, running back, tight end, up-back or personal protector on punt teams, and oh yeah - quarterback. Or at least, he can present a higher danger of throwing the football than, say, Ronnie Brown out of the wildcat.
Bottom line, Tebow is not guaranteed anything (money or a roster spot). Watch Tebow put on camouflage and fade into the background this year so he can focus on doing his job and the Patriots can continue winning. Or he ends up being a bust and cut by the end of training camp. Either way, you won't be hearing much on him from Foxboro anytime soon. And that's exactly how it should be.
So why am I bothering to blog about this? Well, unless you've been living under a rock for the past week, you already know that Chad "OchoCinco" Johnson is headed to jail for 30 days, Adam "Pacman" Jones has been arrested and charged with assault and the Evil Empire (Read: New England Patriots) have signed #1 Jesus fan Tim Tebow.
Chad Johnson might be a funny guy, but he's an idiot. First off, if you are on probation for domestic violence for head butting your former wife, and then you violate that probation due to a "miscommunication", any court appearance you make should be in a business suit....not a button down half-sleeve like you're going clubbing in Miami straight after. Secondly, when you want the judge and the opposing party to do you a solid, you don't show up in aforementioned button down half-sleeve, chewing gum, and smack your lawyer in the "back-side" and make the courtroom laugh out loud during your proceedings. Finally, don't tweet about it after you get sent to jail.
Pacman, bro, you just don't get it. You cannot keep your nose clean. I don't understand why he is on an NFL roster. There's been guys that have been cut for far less. And I get that he's very talented. But he's a headache and a liability. He cannot help your team from jail. Pacman was charged with assault because he allegedly assaulted a woman outside a Cincinnati bar. Now, there's three versions to this story just like any - Pacman's, his victim's, and the truth. According to Pacman the alleged victim and her friend were taunting him and later asked for his autograph at which point the principled Mr. Jones declined politely and then the alleged victim threw a beer bottle at Pacman who, in an act to defend himself, hit the alleged victim in the face. According to the alleged victim, "He was harassing my friends and saying derogatory things towards my friend and I stood up to him and he called me a 'bitch' and punched me in the head." Now the video does not show her throw a bottle at him but instead does show her pour beer at him. I've seen some crazy white chicks but never a 110 lb girl pour a beer on a jacked up NFL player with his even bigger friend next to him for no reason. Who knows what happened. All I know is, Pacman, shouldn't you be at home reading newspaper and then sipping on your lemonade before you go to bed at 10pm?
Finally, Tywin Lannister, I mean, Bill Belichick...touche. (Yes that was a Game of Thrones reference. If you don't watch it, screw you). Nobody gives out virtually no information in his press conferences like the evil genius. And he's mastered it. He enjoys it, evidenced by the smirk that escapes his grip every now and then. I listened to his nine minute press conference after the Patriots signed Tim Tebow to a two year contract, and I think I counted one instance where Billy B refers to Tebow by name. In fact, he started off that press conference like he was just talking about the Patriots offseason in general, as if Tebow was just one piece of the enormous puzzle. That's exactly how it should be. Love him or hate him, you gotta respect Belichick. He either knows exactly how they will use Tebow or he doesn't, but what will he gain from relaying that information? It stands in such stark contrast to how the Jets handled Tebow.
As far as Tebow, he has been signed to one of two or three teams that I consider are perfect places for him to land for several reasons:
1. There will never be a question as to who the starting quarterback of the New England Patriots is. As long as Brady is healthy, he's the guy. No amount of media questioning or fan/front office pressure can make Tebow the starter in New England.
2. Nobody knows how to use Tebow in the NFL better than Josh McDaniels. He, formerly the head coach of the Broncos, who traded three picks to draft Tebow in the first round and hitch his team's success and his future as a head coach to Tebow.
3. No other team handles media scrutiny better than the New England Patriots. Belichick's press conference was just a taste. Later on, Tebow's introduction to the media consisted of a 30 second "hello" followed by no questions. Again, in stark contrast to how the New York Jets handled his signing just last year.
4. Belichick loves versatility. He covets it in his players. That's why you see him pick relative unknowns in the draft every year. Dare I say, it's the skill he covets the most. And that's exactly what Tebow brings to the table, athletically. He can play fullback, H-back, running back, tight end, up-back or personal protector on punt teams, and oh yeah - quarterback. Or at least, he can present a higher danger of throwing the football than, say, Ronnie Brown out of the wildcat.
Bottom line, Tebow is not guaranteed anything (money or a roster spot). Watch Tebow put on camouflage and fade into the background this year so he can focus on doing his job and the Patriots can continue winning. Or he ends up being a bust and cut by the end of training camp. Either way, you won't be hearing much on him from Foxboro anytime soon. And that's exactly how it should be.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
NFL Draft - QB Notes
These are my notes I took from watching film of some of the QB's in this draft from their bowl games a few months back. I should've posted them before the draft but I forgot.
GENO SMITH, QB (West Virginia) 6'3", 220 lbs:
- Was asked to run a multiple offense, everything from pistol to traditional I to singleback.
Negatives:
- Slow release
- Happy feet in the pocket
- Shoddy footwork
- Dropback from under center is too slow and uncoordinated
- Doesn't do a good job of carrying out play-action fakes
- Very inaccurate on short throws (mostly footwork related + field conditions were bad)
- Poor mechanics on deep throws (caveat: field conditions)
Positives:
- Flashes good accuracy and strong arm on intermediate throws
- Plenty of army strength to make all the throws
Outlook: He has all the physical tools to be a starting QB in the NFL but he needs a lot of work on his footwork, mechanics, and field awareness. Most of his college throws were behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which inflate his stats a bit. Based purely on physical traits, he's a borderline first rounder. But add the coaching he needs, he shouldn't go before middle of the second round.
RYAN NASSIB, QB (Syracuse) 6'3", 230lbs:
- Was running a high tempo offense (mostly shotgun spread)
Negatives:
- Short, choppy drop back (but mostly due to field conditions)
- Inaccurate when rolling out of the pocket, usually high and outside
- Mediocre deep ball accuracy
- Arm strength on deep balls is suspect, evidenced by the height of his throws.
Positives:
- Quick, strong release
- True spiral on his throws
- Good footwork out of shotgun, consistent and he sets up very quickly to get rid of the ball
- Adequate arm strength to make all the throws in the NFL, but will need better mechanics on deep balls
Outlook: Overall he is a bit limited skill-wise but he is a very polished passer. His decision making needs to improve at the next level. His mechanics in the pocket and awareness are very good. Does a very good job of avoiding pressure and he maintained his level of play in the worst of conditions (rain/sleet/wind). He is the closest of this group to come in and start in the NFL but his upside is somewhat limited due to a limited skill set. He's best in a west coast offense.
EJ MANUEL, QB (Florida State) 6'5", 240lbs:
- Ran a no huddle, West Coast offense, mostly 3 to 5 step drops, and shotgun. Ran a good chunk of option plays as well.
Negatives:
- Poor pre-snap adjustments, needs work on varying snap count and making consistently proper sight adjustments
- Throws to his first look too often
Positives:
- Excellent footwork and patience on play action fakes
- Quick release at the top of his dropback and nice, tight spiral.
- Very athletic for a man his size
- Cool in the face of pressure, maintains composure and footwork and delivers the ball accurately
- Good touch on short/swing passes
- Plenty of arm strength to put zip on the football
- Extends plays with his feet well
- Accurate passer on the run to both sides of the field
Outlook: Easily the most gifted passer in this class. However, he is not as polished as some of the more experienced guys. He played behind Christian Ponder mostly due to lack of experience. He reminds me of a rawer Cam Newton. He's farther along than Geno Smith as a passer but still would benefit from sitting behind a veteran for at least half a season.
EJ Manuel ended up being a first round pick to the Bills; Geno Smith was a second round pick to the Jets; Ryan Nassib ended up with the Giants as a fourth round pick.
GENO SMITH, QB (West Virginia) 6'3", 220 lbs:
- Was asked to run a multiple offense, everything from pistol to traditional I to singleback.
Negatives:
- Slow release
- Happy feet in the pocket
- Shoddy footwork
- Dropback from under center is too slow and uncoordinated
- Doesn't do a good job of carrying out play-action fakes
- Very inaccurate on short throws (mostly footwork related + field conditions were bad)
- Poor mechanics on deep throws (caveat: field conditions)
Positives:
- Flashes good accuracy and strong arm on intermediate throws
- Plenty of army strength to make all the throws
Outlook: He has all the physical tools to be a starting QB in the NFL but he needs a lot of work on his footwork, mechanics, and field awareness. Most of his college throws were behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which inflate his stats a bit. Based purely on physical traits, he's a borderline first rounder. But add the coaching he needs, he shouldn't go before middle of the second round.
RYAN NASSIB, QB (Syracuse) 6'3", 230lbs:
- Was running a high tempo offense (mostly shotgun spread)
Negatives:
- Short, choppy drop back (but mostly due to field conditions)
- Inaccurate when rolling out of the pocket, usually high and outside
- Mediocre deep ball accuracy
- Arm strength on deep balls is suspect, evidenced by the height of his throws.
Positives:
- Quick, strong release
- True spiral on his throws
- Good footwork out of shotgun, consistent and he sets up very quickly to get rid of the ball
- Adequate arm strength to make all the throws in the NFL, but will need better mechanics on deep balls
Outlook: Overall he is a bit limited skill-wise but he is a very polished passer. His decision making needs to improve at the next level. His mechanics in the pocket and awareness are very good. Does a very good job of avoiding pressure and he maintained his level of play in the worst of conditions (rain/sleet/wind). He is the closest of this group to come in and start in the NFL but his upside is somewhat limited due to a limited skill set. He's best in a west coast offense.
EJ MANUEL, QB (Florida State) 6'5", 240lbs:
- Ran a no huddle, West Coast offense, mostly 3 to 5 step drops, and shotgun. Ran a good chunk of option plays as well.
Negatives:
- Poor pre-snap adjustments, needs work on varying snap count and making consistently proper sight adjustments
- Throws to his first look too often
Positives:
- Excellent footwork and patience on play action fakes
- Quick release at the top of his dropback and nice, tight spiral.
- Very athletic for a man his size
- Cool in the face of pressure, maintains composure and footwork and delivers the ball accurately
- Good touch on short/swing passes
- Plenty of arm strength to put zip on the football
- Extends plays with his feet well
- Accurate passer on the run to both sides of the field
Outlook: Easily the most gifted passer in this class. However, he is not as polished as some of the more experienced guys. He played behind Christian Ponder mostly due to lack of experience. He reminds me of a rawer Cam Newton. He's farther along than Geno Smith as a passer but still would benefit from sitting behind a veteran for at least half a season.
EJ Manuel ended up being a first round pick to the Bills; Geno Smith was a second round pick to the Jets; Ryan Nassib ended up with the Giants as a fourth round pick.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
NFL Draft Six-Pack
The 2013 NFL Draft is upon us and it has been another crazy scouting off-season in the NFL. Just a few thoughts before tomorrow nights festivities kick off:
1. This is the first time, since I've started religiously following the draft, that nobody knows who the Chiefs will pick with the first overall pick. That is a result of two things, in my opinion. One - There is no consensus #1 player in this draft. But such has been the case in the recent past, so that is not an anomaly. Two - With the rookie salary cap in place since last year, teams picking #1 overall won't be tipping their picks by negotiating with them before the draft. Last year, we all knew since mid-season 2011 that Andrew Luck was going #1. All the RG3 talk made it interesting, but ultimately I don't think anyone in the NFL community actually believed that the #1 pick would be anyone but Andrew Luck. This year, as a result of both of the above factors, this will be a more exciting draft simply due to the "unknown" factor.
2. Over the past three months I've heard a lot of reports, and subsequently confirmed for myself by watching a little tape, that this draft is light in the top ten picks but pretty deep overall, especially in the offensive line and the defensive front seven. This means the rich keep getting richer because playoff teams will have the chance to pick a player that really might not be graded much lower or at all than the top 10 picks.
3. I envy the 49ers roster. A Super Bowl squad before we even begin the draft + Anquan Boldin in free agency + 13 picks in this draft to wheel and deal around to get the players they want or get future picks. That is how you build a franchise and set it up for success. Kudos to Trent Baalke
4. Speaking of the Super Bowl, this is where the Ravens build their roster. Living down the street from the stadium in Baltimore, I heard a lot of fans panicking a little when they saw Ozzie Newsome gut the Super Bowl winning roster of numerous starters on both sides of the ball, including franchise icon Ed Reed and Playoff MVP Anquan Boldin. Add the fact that their emotional leader Ray Lewis also stepped away from the game and I could almost understand the Ravens' fans anguish. But Newsome, like in the past, stayed relatively quiet in the first wave of free agency and then came away with the best pass rusher who became available due to a fax snafu, Elvis Dumervil, and a solid free safety to replace Reed, Michael Huff. I expect Ozzie to quietly pick the best player available on their board and keep re-tooling the Ravens roster. After all, they lost eight starters the previous off-season and then went on to win the Super Bowl. I trust in Ozzie.
5. Tavon Austin reminds me those Leon Sandcastle ads on NFL Network. Before the combine, he was a second round pick. Since blowing up the combine with a 4.34 forty yard dash, media pundits have vaulted him to as high as the #4 overall pick. He's a slot receiver who is a nightmare to tackle in the open field, but I don't see a top-20 player when I watch him. He's been the hottest name in the draft so far.
6. This is also the first draft that I can remember where there isn't a consensus #1 QB, or even a top three QB list that scouts and media experts can agree on. I've seen Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, and even Landry Jones as the top QB in this draft. This is one of the main reasons for point #1 above. And this is also why the Chiefs, Raiders, Eagles, Cardinals, and the Bills (all picking in the top-8) went out and got veteran QB's this off-season. Nobody is completely sold on the QB class this year but the fact that it's the most important position on the football field will vault them up the draft board and thus dictate much of the movement in this draft.
Enjoy the draft everyone and let me know if you'd like me to post anything about a particular player or team after the draft.
1. This is the first time, since I've started religiously following the draft, that nobody knows who the Chiefs will pick with the first overall pick. That is a result of two things, in my opinion. One - There is no consensus #1 player in this draft. But such has been the case in the recent past, so that is not an anomaly. Two - With the rookie salary cap in place since last year, teams picking #1 overall won't be tipping their picks by negotiating with them before the draft. Last year, we all knew since mid-season 2011 that Andrew Luck was going #1. All the RG3 talk made it interesting, but ultimately I don't think anyone in the NFL community actually believed that the #1 pick would be anyone but Andrew Luck. This year, as a result of both of the above factors, this will be a more exciting draft simply due to the "unknown" factor.
2. Over the past three months I've heard a lot of reports, and subsequently confirmed for myself by watching a little tape, that this draft is light in the top ten picks but pretty deep overall, especially in the offensive line and the defensive front seven. This means the rich keep getting richer because playoff teams will have the chance to pick a player that really might not be graded much lower or at all than the top 10 picks.
3. I envy the 49ers roster. A Super Bowl squad before we even begin the draft + Anquan Boldin in free agency + 13 picks in this draft to wheel and deal around to get the players they want or get future picks. That is how you build a franchise and set it up for success. Kudos to Trent Baalke
4. Speaking of the Super Bowl, this is where the Ravens build their roster. Living down the street from the stadium in Baltimore, I heard a lot of fans panicking a little when they saw Ozzie Newsome gut the Super Bowl winning roster of numerous starters on both sides of the ball, including franchise icon Ed Reed and Playoff MVP Anquan Boldin. Add the fact that their emotional leader Ray Lewis also stepped away from the game and I could almost understand the Ravens' fans anguish. But Newsome, like in the past, stayed relatively quiet in the first wave of free agency and then came away with the best pass rusher who became available due to a fax snafu, Elvis Dumervil, and a solid free safety to replace Reed, Michael Huff. I expect Ozzie to quietly pick the best player available on their board and keep re-tooling the Ravens roster. After all, they lost eight starters the previous off-season and then went on to win the Super Bowl. I trust in Ozzie.
5. Tavon Austin reminds me those Leon Sandcastle ads on NFL Network. Before the combine, he was a second round pick. Since blowing up the combine with a 4.34 forty yard dash, media pundits have vaulted him to as high as the #4 overall pick. He's a slot receiver who is a nightmare to tackle in the open field, but I don't see a top-20 player when I watch him. He's been the hottest name in the draft so far.
6. This is also the first draft that I can remember where there isn't a consensus #1 QB, or even a top three QB list that scouts and media experts can agree on. I've seen Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, and even Landry Jones as the top QB in this draft. This is one of the main reasons for point #1 above. And this is also why the Chiefs, Raiders, Eagles, Cardinals, and the Bills (all picking in the top-8) went out and got veteran QB's this off-season. Nobody is completely sold on the QB class this year but the fact that it's the most important position on the football field will vault them up the draft board and thus dictate much of the movement in this draft.
Enjoy the draft everyone and let me know if you'd like me to post anything about a particular player or team after the draft.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Winning the Super Bowl in March
Free Agency, in my opinion, should never be relied upon to build the core of your team. In football, unlike baseball or basketball, simply getting the most productive player available at his position does not guarantee you continued production. In fact, it doesn't necessarily even make it likely. I've always seen NFL free agency as a few teams, usually the same ones that aren't playing into January regularly, overpay for mediocre talent, while smart teams, the ones that do go deep into the playoffs, make good value deals after the first wave or two of free agency has passed.
Like anything else, there are always exceptions. Last year we saw the Colts part with one of the best quarterbacks of our generation and a sure-fire hall of famer with still a few years left in him. It took a season-ending injury and a "once every ten years" prospect in Andrew Luck for the Colts to even consider releasing Manning. My point is this: every general manager and front office has a valuation of every player close to entering free agency. The ones who are able to properly evaluate the value of the available player AND stay disciplined to that evaluation are the ones that consistently put a playoff roster together. You look at the Ozzie Newsomes and the Bill Belichicks of the world, there's a reason why their respective teams consistently make the playoffs while still never enter salary cap hell. Yes they have the big quarterback question answered, and of course coaching has a lot to do with it, but what separates the good teams from the great is the middle to lower thirds of the roster. Every playoff team has made it there with quality depth because football is a violent sport and chances are you will lose a few starters along the way to injuries.
Just last year, the Bucaneers and the Bills were universally hailed as free agency winners and where were they in January? Free agency is an exciting time for NFL fans, but just be careful of overreacting one way or the other on your team's moves. The Ravens traded away Boldin because he refused to take a $2 million dollar paycut and the Patriots let Welker walk and sign with the Broncos for essentially $1 million per year. These may seem like horrible decisions but Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are two of the best GMs in football. In the words of Scott Pioli, "free agency is a fine line between paying for past and future performance." I'm not saying the Niners or the Broncos made bad decisions by signing Boldin or Welker, respectively. In fact, I think the decisions by all four franchises involved are sound. It just shows that the Niners and the Broncos valued Boldin and Welker, respectively, a little more than the Ravens and the Patriots did. Who ended up making the better decision? We'll see in the next couple of years. But one thing is for sure, Super Bowls aren't won in March.
Like anything else, there are always exceptions. Last year we saw the Colts part with one of the best quarterbacks of our generation and a sure-fire hall of famer with still a few years left in him. It took a season-ending injury and a "once every ten years" prospect in Andrew Luck for the Colts to even consider releasing Manning. My point is this: every general manager and front office has a valuation of every player close to entering free agency. The ones who are able to properly evaluate the value of the available player AND stay disciplined to that evaluation are the ones that consistently put a playoff roster together. You look at the Ozzie Newsomes and the Bill Belichicks of the world, there's a reason why their respective teams consistently make the playoffs while still never enter salary cap hell. Yes they have the big quarterback question answered, and of course coaching has a lot to do with it, but what separates the good teams from the great is the middle to lower thirds of the roster. Every playoff team has made it there with quality depth because football is a violent sport and chances are you will lose a few starters along the way to injuries.
Just last year, the Bucaneers and the Bills were universally hailed as free agency winners and where were they in January? Free agency is an exciting time for NFL fans, but just be careful of overreacting one way or the other on your team's moves. The Ravens traded away Boldin because he refused to take a $2 million dollar paycut and the Patriots let Welker walk and sign with the Broncos for essentially $1 million per year. These may seem like horrible decisions but Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are two of the best GMs in football. In the words of Scott Pioli, "free agency is a fine line between paying for past and future performance." I'm not saying the Niners or the Broncos made bad decisions by signing Boldin or Welker, respectively. In fact, I think the decisions by all four franchises involved are sound. It just shows that the Niners and the Broncos valued Boldin and Welker, respectively, a little more than the Ravens and the Patriots did. Who ended up making the better decision? We'll see in the next couple of years. But one thing is for sure, Super Bowls aren't won in March.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
NFL Combine - 40 times, workouts, and Manti Te'o
The annual "underwear olympics", as NFL Network's Mike Mayock calls it, is upon us. As usual, the most talked about event at the combine (and the most overrated in my opinion) is the 40 yard dash. The least talked about event is usually the medical examinations but ironically is probably the most important as far as NFL teams are concerned. Following the combine for the past few years I've learned that teams generally use the combine for information gathering. Contrary to popular belief, the 40 time does not automatically improve or hurt a player's draft stock. What it does is force the teams to go back and watch more tape on a particular player if he times slower or faster than expected. All the drills at the combine serve teams as an indicator. If the guy runs as fast and moves as well as expected then the combine drills serve as a reinforcement of what the tape has shown all year. However if the guy runs faster or slower, or does better or worse in the combine drills then teams will dig hard to find out why. Did the player lose weight since the college season to move faster/smoother? Is that weight ideal for his frame in the NFL? Did he maintain his strength while shaving off the fractions of a second of his 40 time? Every year there's a handful of athletes who blow the doors off the combine and get over-drafted. The past few years I've seen teams like the Raiders and Jets blow early picks on workout warriors who go on to disappoint once the pads go on.
Every year there's a few players that NFL teams have more question marks on than the average player that can be answered at the combine. In my opinion, this year, the top 10 list is as follows:
1. Manti Te'o, LB (ND): His biggest hurdles will be the team interviews and really all the drills. No player, in my opinion, has as much to lose or gain as Te'o does this weekend. He is off to a good start with his press conference yesterday where he answered every question with genuine honesty, in my opinion. Now he needs to show teams that the national championship game tape was an aberration in the drills and by having a good bench press number to show his strength.
2. Geno Smith, QB (WVU): He needs to show teams his speed and arm strength in drills. His 40 time will either solidify the general consensus that he is capable of running the read option in the NFL that has gained popularity this year or not.
3. Jarvis Jones, LB (GA): His biggest hurdle is the medical examinations. Teams have a lot of concern over whether his spinal stenosis diagnosis at USC will limit his career in the NFL. We saw DeQuan Bowers in the recent past go from a top-5 pick to mid 2nd round due to medical issues. Jarvis is probably a top 5-10 pick on tape but he may also take a huge tumble on draft day if enough teams don't see favorable medical reports on him.
4. Cordarelle Patterson, WR (TENN): Patterson is very green and last year was his first full year starting. But, on tape, he looked explosive with the ball in his hands and a natural pass catcher. He reminded me of Julio Jones a little bit and if his 40 time and his WR drills confirm this, he might sneak into the top 10.
5. Tavon Austin, WR (WVU): Austin is a dynamic play maker in space and his 40 time will likely confirm this. If he can show teams that he is a natural pass catcher in drills while making adjustments on the fly and if his height/weight doesn't come up lower than expected he could sneak himself into the first round. NFL teams would love to have a wild-card like Austin in the slot.
6. Tyler Eifert, TE (ND): Many teams have a two-way tie for the number one tight end this year between Eifert and Zac Ertz of Stanford. I think Eifert jumps off at you on tape just a bit more and having a better 40 time and a better performance in the drills might solidify him as the top tight end in this year's class and a mid-first round pick.
7. Dion Jordan, LB (OR): Jordan is a very intriguing prospect in that he was very productive and his ideal length and array of pass rush moves could be very useful as a 3-4 OLB. With more teams moving to the 3-4 this year, they will be paying close attention to Jordan's wingspan, how he moves in the drills, and his 3-cone drill time. He could be a top 10 pick in April when all is said and done.
8. Margus Hunt, DE (SMU): Hunt has what a lot of teams are looking for - size, speed, and athleticism on the defensive line. At 6'8", 280 and a plethora of pass rushing moves, and the versatility to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end, teams will be looking to see if he has JJ Watt like qualities. They certainly show up on tape, now he needs to show that his measurables are on par with his tape. If so, he will sneak into the first round.
9. Mike Glennon, QB (NC ST): The general consesnsus around the league is that Geno Smith is the top quarterback as of now, although he is not exactly on solid ground. After him, it's between Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. Glennon's strengths are his rocket arm and more than ideal height. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of mobility, and his composure/pocket presence. It'll be hard for him to show teams that he's overcome those weaknesses in a combine setting but he can at least reassure teams on his arm strength and show them he has more mobility than expected by showing well in the movement drills.
10. Tyler Wilson, QB (ARK): Like Glennon, Wilson is battling for that 2nd spot behind Geno Smith. He needs to answer questions on his arm strength and accuracy. He had a better Junior season than Senior so he also needs to score well in his interviews. If he's able to convince teams that his digression from 2011 to 2012 was more a product of his head coach leaving and a lack of playmakers all the while maintaining his leadership qualities and taking some of the blame himself he might enter the late first round discussion. As of now, he's a 2nd rounder to me.
By the way, asides from all the potential rookies that NFL teams will be closely watching this weekend, the combine has also served as a meeting point for NFL GMs and their own unrestricted free agents. It's a rare occasion where all 32 GMs will be present in one building and sports agents use this venue to start having face to face meetings.
Every year there's a few players that NFL teams have more question marks on than the average player that can be answered at the combine. In my opinion, this year, the top 10 list is as follows:
1. Manti Te'o, LB (ND): His biggest hurdles will be the team interviews and really all the drills. No player, in my opinion, has as much to lose or gain as Te'o does this weekend. He is off to a good start with his press conference yesterday where he answered every question with genuine honesty, in my opinion. Now he needs to show teams that the national championship game tape was an aberration in the drills and by having a good bench press number to show his strength.
2. Geno Smith, QB (WVU): He needs to show teams his speed and arm strength in drills. His 40 time will either solidify the general consensus that he is capable of running the read option in the NFL that has gained popularity this year or not.
3. Jarvis Jones, LB (GA): His biggest hurdle is the medical examinations. Teams have a lot of concern over whether his spinal stenosis diagnosis at USC will limit his career in the NFL. We saw DeQuan Bowers in the recent past go from a top-5 pick to mid 2nd round due to medical issues. Jarvis is probably a top 5-10 pick on tape but he may also take a huge tumble on draft day if enough teams don't see favorable medical reports on him.
4. Cordarelle Patterson, WR (TENN): Patterson is very green and last year was his first full year starting. But, on tape, he looked explosive with the ball in his hands and a natural pass catcher. He reminded me of Julio Jones a little bit and if his 40 time and his WR drills confirm this, he might sneak into the top 10.
5. Tavon Austin, WR (WVU): Austin is a dynamic play maker in space and his 40 time will likely confirm this. If he can show teams that he is a natural pass catcher in drills while making adjustments on the fly and if his height/weight doesn't come up lower than expected he could sneak himself into the first round. NFL teams would love to have a wild-card like Austin in the slot.
6. Tyler Eifert, TE (ND): Many teams have a two-way tie for the number one tight end this year between Eifert and Zac Ertz of Stanford. I think Eifert jumps off at you on tape just a bit more and having a better 40 time and a better performance in the drills might solidify him as the top tight end in this year's class and a mid-first round pick.
7. Dion Jordan, LB (OR): Jordan is a very intriguing prospect in that he was very productive and his ideal length and array of pass rush moves could be very useful as a 3-4 OLB. With more teams moving to the 3-4 this year, they will be paying close attention to Jordan's wingspan, how he moves in the drills, and his 3-cone drill time. He could be a top 10 pick in April when all is said and done.
8. Margus Hunt, DE (SMU): Hunt has what a lot of teams are looking for - size, speed, and athleticism on the defensive line. At 6'8", 280 and a plethora of pass rushing moves, and the versatility to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end, teams will be looking to see if he has JJ Watt like qualities. They certainly show up on tape, now he needs to show that his measurables are on par with his tape. If so, he will sneak into the first round.
9. Mike Glennon, QB (NC ST): The general consesnsus around the league is that Geno Smith is the top quarterback as of now, although he is not exactly on solid ground. After him, it's between Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. Glennon's strengths are his rocket arm and more than ideal height. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of mobility, and his composure/pocket presence. It'll be hard for him to show teams that he's overcome those weaknesses in a combine setting but he can at least reassure teams on his arm strength and show them he has more mobility than expected by showing well in the movement drills.
10. Tyler Wilson, QB (ARK): Like Glennon, Wilson is battling for that 2nd spot behind Geno Smith. He needs to answer questions on his arm strength and accuracy. He had a better Junior season than Senior so he also needs to score well in his interviews. If he's able to convince teams that his digression from 2011 to 2012 was more a product of his head coach leaving and a lack of playmakers all the while maintaining his leadership qualities and taking some of the blame himself he might enter the late first round discussion. As of now, he's a 2nd rounder to me.
By the way, asides from all the potential rookies that NFL teams will be closely watching this weekend, the combine has also served as a meeting point for NFL GMs and their own unrestricted free agents. It's a rare occasion where all 32 GMs will be present in one building and sports agents use this venue to start having face to face meetings.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
The Big Game and the Off Season
Jim Harbaugh has got to be sleeping with a picture of Colin Kaepernick underneath his pillow and kissing it every night before he goes to bed. A lot of people in the sports world ripped on Harbaugh for benching his staring quarterback, who at the time had the highest quarterback rating in the league, for a second year player who had zero starts under his belt. I applauded the move because I, like Harbaugh, did not believe that Alex Smith was the guy that would get the 49ers over the hump. I will also be the first to admit that I didn't know Kaepernick was that guy either, and I bet Harbaugh also didn't KNOW but had a lot more insight into what Kaepernick could and could not do than any of us did. This is the kind of coaching that has brought the 49ers to the big game in a year after their hearts were broken in the championship game. Every 49ers fan is out reveling in the glory that is Super Bowl week but if you caught any of them this time last year they'd probably lock themselves into a room and cry themselves to sleep after watching images of Kyle Williams muffing not one, but two punts in the same game against the Giants.
And lets not forget an equally daring decision that will probably never get the same amount of publicity as the Kaepernick decision: Older brother John Harbaugh making the decision to fire an ineffective Cam Cameron and handing the offensive keys to Jim Caldwell. Since then, Flacco has looked every bit of his self-proclaimed "elite" and I've heard some Raven fans actually wonder if their team can afford to keep Flacco or if they wouldn't have been better off with Flacco being mediocre so that he'd cost less to keep. To them, all I say is - I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. Caldwell is taking advantage of Flacco's arm and aggressive tendencies and balancing that with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce to keep the defenses honest. The gameplan, thus far, has been sound. The one blemish Caldwell has as a Ravens play-caller was against the Broncos in the regular season, but that was his 5th day on the job.
All the hoopla this week will be disgusting. The media will beat the Harbaugh brother story to death. There will be fabrications left and right and people will wonder who started them and if it had anything to do with the opposing team. The Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl are reminders to most football fans that the season has ended and the off-season has begun. The Super Bowl is more of an event, an entertainment show for 3-4 hours rather than solely a football game between the two best teams in the NFL. There's probably a large minority or maybe even majority of the viewers watching just for the commercials. For people like me, I love this time of the year. I love how much more access a fan now has to the NFL off-season process. I recorded Senior bowl practices so that I can be as close to it as possible short of being an NFL scout. Next month we'll have the combine followed by free agency in March and then the draft in April. I guess as a Bills fan I've had a lot of time to research and watch draft prospects since they're typically out of it by November. So, over the years, I've come to appreciate that process and I love the part where I get to figure out who's good and who's not and which team will draft whom.
By the way, NFL scouts have been working all year round. They've been visiting campuses to watch and scout seniors all year long and once the Juniors declare for the draft they will trek back to those campuses and do homework on them. They will have watched countless hours of tape, interviewed players at the bowl games,etc etc. I guess I can't not say something about the Manti Te'o thing so I'll just say this: By the time the draft rolls around, we'll have as complete a picture as we probably need to on this story. I don't know what happened. If I had to guess, from the looks of it he got caught in a scam, discovered that he was being duped but then was too embarrassed, like any normal human being would be, to reveal that he'd been duped. The biggest tell I've gotten so far on him is that Te'o is not the sharpest tool in the shed and is gullible. All things considered, not the worst quality in a NFL middle linebacker. Hopefully he has the right people around him advising him through this mess and helping him in the future to avoid pitfalls such as this.
As it says on my high school football sweatshirt - "There is no off season"
And lets not forget an equally daring decision that will probably never get the same amount of publicity as the Kaepernick decision: Older brother John Harbaugh making the decision to fire an ineffective Cam Cameron and handing the offensive keys to Jim Caldwell. Since then, Flacco has looked every bit of his self-proclaimed "elite" and I've heard some Raven fans actually wonder if their team can afford to keep Flacco or if they wouldn't have been better off with Flacco being mediocre so that he'd cost less to keep. To them, all I say is - I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. Caldwell is taking advantage of Flacco's arm and aggressive tendencies and balancing that with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce to keep the defenses honest. The gameplan, thus far, has been sound. The one blemish Caldwell has as a Ravens play-caller was against the Broncos in the regular season, but that was his 5th day on the job.
All the hoopla this week will be disgusting. The media will beat the Harbaugh brother story to death. There will be fabrications left and right and people will wonder who started them and if it had anything to do with the opposing team. The Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl are reminders to most football fans that the season has ended and the off-season has begun. The Super Bowl is more of an event, an entertainment show for 3-4 hours rather than solely a football game between the two best teams in the NFL. There's probably a large minority or maybe even majority of the viewers watching just for the commercials. For people like me, I love this time of the year. I love how much more access a fan now has to the NFL off-season process. I recorded Senior bowl practices so that I can be as close to it as possible short of being an NFL scout. Next month we'll have the combine followed by free agency in March and then the draft in April. I guess as a Bills fan I've had a lot of time to research and watch draft prospects since they're typically out of it by November. So, over the years, I've come to appreciate that process and I love the part where I get to figure out who's good and who's not and which team will draft whom.
By the way, NFL scouts have been working all year round. They've been visiting campuses to watch and scout seniors all year long and once the Juniors declare for the draft they will trek back to those campuses and do homework on them. They will have watched countless hours of tape, interviewed players at the bowl games,etc etc. I guess I can't not say something about the Manti Te'o thing so I'll just say this: By the time the draft rolls around, we'll have as complete a picture as we probably need to on this story. I don't know what happened. If I had to guess, from the looks of it he got caught in a scam, discovered that he was being duped but then was too embarrassed, like any normal human being would be, to reveal that he'd been duped. The biggest tell I've gotten so far on him is that Te'o is not the sharpest tool in the shed and is gullible. All things considered, not the worst quality in a NFL middle linebacker. Hopefully he has the right people around him advising him through this mess and helping him in the future to avoid pitfalls such as this.
As it says on my high school football sweatshirt - "There is no off season"
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Why Kaepernick is the right decision and Sanchez the wrong one.
Many NFL story-lines as we enter week 14. There's the MVP race, two rookie quarterbacks lighting up the league, Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson - either of whom could be the MVP or the Comeback player of the year, Baltimore's road woes and now apparently their home woes against a Charlie Batch led Steelers, and much much more. But I wanted to talk about quarterback decisions made in San Fransisco and New York and why Harbaugh has it right and Ryan continues to make the wrong one.
First the Kaepernick decision: I sympathize with Alex Smith. As he best put it, he did nothing to lose his job except get a concussion. But switching to Kaepernick is the right decision for two reasons:
1. Smith is a solid quarterback and Harbaugh knows this. However Smith is a game manager and a good decision maker. The offense is decidedly conservative because of it. He's not the quarterback to lead your team on a comeback down 14 points to Matt Ryan and Falcons in the playoffs. We don't know if Kaepernick can do that either but we can find out. Kaep certainly has the skill set. He's got a stronger arm and can make all the NFL throws plus he has the legs to bail him out of most bad situations and get some serious yardage. As a player he's a poor man's Cam Newton with maybe even a stronger arm. He's just not as polished a passer yet.
Harbaugh knows all of this. He's seen enough in practices and games to want to go after Peyton Manning in the off season. So far the 49ers have been able to dominate against average opponents while stay alive against quality opponents. The Giants blow out of the 49ers in October has been a rarity in the Harbaugh era. The Niners have a dominant defense, a very good offensive line and running game. But like any defense made of humans, they'll have their bad days and it's games like that where the lack of a great quarterback is evident. Whether Kaepernick is that guy remains to be seen, but it's a proactive decision to want to find out.
2. The second reason I like the Kaepernick decision is because switching to Alex Smith is very much in play. If Kaepernick proves to be unable to perform well in games, Harbaugh can easily pull the plug on the second-year player and plug the veteran Smith back into the lineup. And having a motivated Alex Smith trying to lead your team can't be a bad thing. But now let's flip the situation around. If Harbaugh had stuck with Smith and lets say the Niners are forced to pull him in the middle of a playoff game when they're down big or even after the game (if they survive with a win), putting in a green Kaepernick at that point is a much worse situation. At least with the current situation, Kaepernick will get some much-needed experience in the regular season and the coaching staff will get to get a long look at him and cater a game-plan to his strengths which they wouldn't get otherwise if Smith fails and they end up making this decision at halftime in the divisional playoffs.
Bottomline, I love the decision by Harbaugh because its a head coach doing everything he can to make it to the Superbowl this time and win it. They still have the all world defense and running game to keep them in most games. Kaep might be able to get them over the hump.
In New York, Rex Ryan continues to exemplify just how much of a circus show the Jets really are. Mark Sanchez is not a franchise quarterback. I don't even think he's as good a quarterback as Alex Smith. The whole world has seen enough of Mark Sanchez. We've seen him do enough to get his team to the AFC championship game but now we've also seen his shortcomings when the Jets are without their best defensive player and probably their best offensive player. Even the Jets owner, Woody Johnson, wants Ryan to start McElroy over Sanchez. With over $8 million guaranteed to Sanchez next year, he's a lock to be on the roster. And unless the Jets go out there and get some solid veteran insurance and put the Tebow project to bed or give him a chance, Sanchez will probably be the starter.
To me, this is the type of decision that could end up slowly hurting your franchise for the next 5 years. Ryan should take a page out of Harbaugh's playbook and start McElroy. They're not going to the playoffs this year (although they are still mathematically alive), but they do need to figure out what to do with Sanchez next year. And finding out whether McElroy can at least be serviceable help make the decision. Plus Rex Ryan has lost at least part of the locker room. Anonymous players have come out and said that they do not think Sanchez is a good quarterback. This is a mess and there are many reasons for it but like any other football team the head coach and the quarterback will take the brunt of the blame for it.
First the Kaepernick decision: I sympathize with Alex Smith. As he best put it, he did nothing to lose his job except get a concussion. But switching to Kaepernick is the right decision for two reasons:
1. Smith is a solid quarterback and Harbaugh knows this. However Smith is a game manager and a good decision maker. The offense is decidedly conservative because of it. He's not the quarterback to lead your team on a comeback down 14 points to Matt Ryan and Falcons in the playoffs. We don't know if Kaepernick can do that either but we can find out. Kaep certainly has the skill set. He's got a stronger arm and can make all the NFL throws plus he has the legs to bail him out of most bad situations and get some serious yardage. As a player he's a poor man's Cam Newton with maybe even a stronger arm. He's just not as polished a passer yet.
Harbaugh knows all of this. He's seen enough in practices and games to want to go after Peyton Manning in the off season. So far the 49ers have been able to dominate against average opponents while stay alive against quality opponents. The Giants blow out of the 49ers in October has been a rarity in the Harbaugh era. The Niners have a dominant defense, a very good offensive line and running game. But like any defense made of humans, they'll have their bad days and it's games like that where the lack of a great quarterback is evident. Whether Kaepernick is that guy remains to be seen, but it's a proactive decision to want to find out.
2. The second reason I like the Kaepernick decision is because switching to Alex Smith is very much in play. If Kaepernick proves to be unable to perform well in games, Harbaugh can easily pull the plug on the second-year player and plug the veteran Smith back into the lineup. And having a motivated Alex Smith trying to lead your team can't be a bad thing. But now let's flip the situation around. If Harbaugh had stuck with Smith and lets say the Niners are forced to pull him in the middle of a playoff game when they're down big or even after the game (if they survive with a win), putting in a green Kaepernick at that point is a much worse situation. At least with the current situation, Kaepernick will get some much-needed experience in the regular season and the coaching staff will get to get a long look at him and cater a game-plan to his strengths which they wouldn't get otherwise if Smith fails and they end up making this decision at halftime in the divisional playoffs.
Bottomline, I love the decision by Harbaugh because its a head coach doing everything he can to make it to the Superbowl this time and win it. They still have the all world defense and running game to keep them in most games. Kaep might be able to get them over the hump.
In New York, Rex Ryan continues to exemplify just how much of a circus show the Jets really are. Mark Sanchez is not a franchise quarterback. I don't even think he's as good a quarterback as Alex Smith. The whole world has seen enough of Mark Sanchez. We've seen him do enough to get his team to the AFC championship game but now we've also seen his shortcomings when the Jets are without their best defensive player and probably their best offensive player. Even the Jets owner, Woody Johnson, wants Ryan to start McElroy over Sanchez. With over $8 million guaranteed to Sanchez next year, he's a lock to be on the roster. And unless the Jets go out there and get some solid veteran insurance and put the Tebow project to bed or give him a chance, Sanchez will probably be the starter.
To me, this is the type of decision that could end up slowly hurting your franchise for the next 5 years. Ryan should take a page out of Harbaugh's playbook and start McElroy. They're not going to the playoffs this year (although they are still mathematically alive), but they do need to figure out what to do with Sanchez next year. And finding out whether McElroy can at least be serviceable help make the decision. Plus Rex Ryan has lost at least part of the locker room. Anonymous players have come out and said that they do not think Sanchez is a good quarterback. This is a mess and there are many reasons for it but like any other football team the head coach and the quarterback will take the brunt of the blame for it.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
NFL Week 10 Nuggets
- I find it ironic that I really don't see much difference in the officiating between the replacement refs and the regular guys. It seems that the replacement guys made a lot of obvious mistakes but got some of the bigger calls right (the Green Bay/Seattle debacle notwithstanding). I see the regular refs make equal number of mistakes, if not more, but they are just not as obvious to the casual fan. I saw horrendous calls that possibly altered the game in the St.Louis/San Francisco, the New England/Bufalo, the Pittsburgh/Kansas City, the Carolina/Denver , and the Philadelphia/Dallas games. Maybe the replacement refs weren't so bad after all.
- I think the rules in place intended to protect quarterbacks within the pocket are proving to be more hurtful when they are outside the pocket. This week, we've seen concussions to at least four starting quarterbacks, two of which were vicious hits they took on the run (Alex Smith and Jay Cutler). I get frustrated just watching these ticky-tacky calls on defenders when they take a shot at a quarterback in the pocket, so I know the defenders must be frustrated as well. But once the QB starts running the ball outside the pocket, he's just like any other runner and you know defenders are licking their chops at a shot at the guy that is so protected by the NFL - they might as well just put a red jersey on him. I completely understand the business side of the NFL's decision to implement these rules. It's a QB-driven league and they are protecting their investment. I also understand the concern for player safety after decades of poor tackling form that starts as early as pee wee football and results in multiple concussions. But some of these calls against defenders is threatening the integrity of the game. These plays are so bang-bang, high speed, and the quarterbacks nowadays are all great emmy-worthy actors. I hate seeing a 3rd down stop by the defense nullified and a free 15 yards awarded to the offense on what should be a non-call.
- Two players that impress me even more now that they are coming off injury this year: Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning. Either of them are a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year or the NFL MVP. I think AP impresses me the most because of how soon he came back from that injury and how amazing he has been thus far. A modern medical marvel. Running backs with ACL injuries seldom regain their form, and even then it takes them at least a season to work through it. AP tore his ACL last winter and by September he was back tearing up the league.
- As purely an idea at this point, they should allow coaches to challenge any two referee calls during the game (except for maybe pure judgement calls like when the play was blown dead). If the coach/team gets both of the calls to go his way, then they get an additional challenge - just like the current challenge system. I know the refs, generally, do an amazing job of officiating the game. But in this age of technology, there is no reason to have bad calls affect the outcome of the game. And don't give me that crap about the inconvenience of the game being stopped. If it affects fans so much, why aren't they flocking to watching soccer? NFL games have TV timeouts after every first down it seems like. No wonder the Chiefs games don't get many commercials.
- The Ravens caught a lucky break by possibly not having to face Big Ben in either of their regular division games. In a scheduling anomaly, the Ravens and Steelers face each other in 2 of the next 3 games. The first game is in Pittsburgh and Flacco and the Ravens have been atrocious away from Baltimore this year. Nothing has been confirmed yet but it looks like Big Ben is almost sure to miss the first game. He may be back in time for the game in Baltimore but the Ravens (and Flacco) are unstoppable at home. While on paper, this is a clear advantage for the Ravens, I would never rest easy knowing Mike Tomlin is across the field.
- Say what you want about the Kansas City Chiefs, they know their shortcomings at Quarterback. I thought I was watching the Jacksonville Jaguars last night as the Chiefs ran basically three plays over and over and over again. A run to the right, a play-action pass off the run action to the right, and a pass play with multiple curl routes. Like the Jags on Thursday night, the Chiefs also threw a pick as a defender jumped the curl route. In the end, the game was way closer than it should've been. But as a play-caller, I don't understand why they wouldn't change it up a little bit once the defense has shown that it has adjusted to your base plays? I understand the weather factor, but that is no excuse. Both teams have to deal with that. I would hope Cassel isn't that bad. If he is, and if the coaching staff doesn't believe in him, why put him out there? Either way this team is the favorite to pick Matt Barkley this off season.
- I think the rules in place intended to protect quarterbacks within the pocket are proving to be more hurtful when they are outside the pocket. This week, we've seen concussions to at least four starting quarterbacks, two of which were vicious hits they took on the run (Alex Smith and Jay Cutler). I get frustrated just watching these ticky-tacky calls on defenders when they take a shot at a quarterback in the pocket, so I know the defenders must be frustrated as well. But once the QB starts running the ball outside the pocket, he's just like any other runner and you know defenders are licking their chops at a shot at the guy that is so protected by the NFL - they might as well just put a red jersey on him. I completely understand the business side of the NFL's decision to implement these rules. It's a QB-driven league and they are protecting their investment. I also understand the concern for player safety after decades of poor tackling form that starts as early as pee wee football and results in multiple concussions. But some of these calls against defenders is threatening the integrity of the game. These plays are so bang-bang, high speed, and the quarterbacks nowadays are all great emmy-worthy actors. I hate seeing a 3rd down stop by the defense nullified and a free 15 yards awarded to the offense on what should be a non-call.
- Two players that impress me even more now that they are coming off injury this year: Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning. Either of them are a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year or the NFL MVP. I think AP impresses me the most because of how soon he came back from that injury and how amazing he has been thus far. A modern medical marvel. Running backs with ACL injuries seldom regain their form, and even then it takes them at least a season to work through it. AP tore his ACL last winter and by September he was back tearing up the league.
- As purely an idea at this point, they should allow coaches to challenge any two referee calls during the game (except for maybe pure judgement calls like when the play was blown dead). If the coach/team gets both of the calls to go his way, then they get an additional challenge - just like the current challenge system. I know the refs, generally, do an amazing job of officiating the game. But in this age of technology, there is no reason to have bad calls affect the outcome of the game. And don't give me that crap about the inconvenience of the game being stopped. If it affects fans so much, why aren't they flocking to watching soccer? NFL games have TV timeouts after every first down it seems like. No wonder the Chiefs games don't get many commercials.
- The Ravens caught a lucky break by possibly not having to face Big Ben in either of their regular division games. In a scheduling anomaly, the Ravens and Steelers face each other in 2 of the next 3 games. The first game is in Pittsburgh and Flacco and the Ravens have been atrocious away from Baltimore this year. Nothing has been confirmed yet but it looks like Big Ben is almost sure to miss the first game. He may be back in time for the game in Baltimore but the Ravens (and Flacco) are unstoppable at home. While on paper, this is a clear advantage for the Ravens, I would never rest easy knowing Mike Tomlin is across the field.
- Say what you want about the Kansas City Chiefs, they know their shortcomings at Quarterback. I thought I was watching the Jacksonville Jaguars last night as the Chiefs ran basically three plays over and over and over again. A run to the right, a play-action pass off the run action to the right, and a pass play with multiple curl routes. Like the Jags on Thursday night, the Chiefs also threw a pick as a defender jumped the curl route. In the end, the game was way closer than it should've been. But as a play-caller, I don't understand why they wouldn't change it up a little bit once the defense has shown that it has adjusted to your base plays? I understand the weather factor, but that is no excuse. Both teams have to deal with that. I would hope Cassel isn't that bad. If he is, and if the coaching staff doesn't believe in him, why put him out there? Either way this team is the favorite to pick Matt Barkley this off season.
Friday, November 9, 2012
NFL Nuggets
Just some thoughts I had on week 9 games I got to watch.
- Bills have to get the ball in CJ Spiller's hands more often. I agree that he is not a running back that you hand the ball off to 20+ times. But he needs to touch the ball 15-20 times a game whether that be via carries or catches.
- The Eagles offensive line is even worse than I thought they were. And losing their right tackle for the rest of the season is not going to make things any better. But all of that said, Vick has almost no pocket presence. In the Monday night game against the Saints (who sacked him 7 times!) I counted at least 2 sacks that I am comfortable blaming Vick for because the defense showed the blitz pre-snap and Vick didn't recognize it and then post-snap he continued through his progression instead of throwing a hot route. If I'm Andy Reid, I'm leaving in tight ends to help on passing plays, especially deep ones.
- The Eagles-Cowboys game this coming week is huge. I think this is a springboard game for each team to turn their seasons around. And the way the Giants and Eli are playing right now, 9-7 might be enough to win that division.
- Kansas City needs a quarterback worse than any team in the league right now. And they will probably have the first crack at it with the inside track to the #1 pick. I'm just not sure I'd want to be taking a quarterback that high in the upcoming draft. Nobody really excites me but in a QB-driven league the odds are pretty good that it will be a quarterback at #1 overall. Matt Cassel has proven to me, every year since he left the Patriots, that he's a system quarterback. And Brady Quinn....yeeeshh. It's too bad too because I thought he would end up being a pretty good one. He's just had no continuity of any kind in terms of coaching.
- Speaking of teams that need a quarterback, I think Jacksonville needs to be looking for one next year but they probably won't because they invested such a high pick on Blaine Gabbert - who is turning out to be a bust so far. They also need to get him some help on the offensive line and play calling. You can't call the 8-yard curl route 15 times a game and expect it not to be picked off.
- I don't understand how/why they did not review the Andrew Luck 2nd rushing "touchdown" in last night's Colts-Jags epic match up. Supposedly the ref got the call from upstairs that it was reviewed and relayed to the head official on the field however the latter never made any announcement to the fans/coaches which led to Mike Mularkey blowing a gasket at the 20 yard line. I think that was a goal line stand. There's a brief second where you can see on the replay that the ball looks to be over the goal-line but it also looked like Luck did not have complete control over it at that point. Either way, I don't necessarily have a problem with the call on the field but that there was not communication from the head official before the extra point that the previous play was reviewed upstairs and upheld.
- Bills have to get the ball in CJ Spiller's hands more often. I agree that he is not a running back that you hand the ball off to 20+ times. But he needs to touch the ball 15-20 times a game whether that be via carries or catches.
- The Eagles offensive line is even worse than I thought they were. And losing their right tackle for the rest of the season is not going to make things any better. But all of that said, Vick has almost no pocket presence. In the Monday night game against the Saints (who sacked him 7 times!) I counted at least 2 sacks that I am comfortable blaming Vick for because the defense showed the blitz pre-snap and Vick didn't recognize it and then post-snap he continued through his progression instead of throwing a hot route. If I'm Andy Reid, I'm leaving in tight ends to help on passing plays, especially deep ones.
- The Eagles-Cowboys game this coming week is huge. I think this is a springboard game for each team to turn their seasons around. And the way the Giants and Eli are playing right now, 9-7 might be enough to win that division.
- Kansas City needs a quarterback worse than any team in the league right now. And they will probably have the first crack at it with the inside track to the #1 pick. I'm just not sure I'd want to be taking a quarterback that high in the upcoming draft. Nobody really excites me but in a QB-driven league the odds are pretty good that it will be a quarterback at #1 overall. Matt Cassel has proven to me, every year since he left the Patriots, that he's a system quarterback. And Brady Quinn....yeeeshh. It's too bad too because I thought he would end up being a pretty good one. He's just had no continuity of any kind in terms of coaching.
- Speaking of teams that need a quarterback, I think Jacksonville needs to be looking for one next year but they probably won't because they invested such a high pick on Blaine Gabbert - who is turning out to be a bust so far. They also need to get him some help on the offensive line and play calling. You can't call the 8-yard curl route 15 times a game and expect it not to be picked off.
- I don't understand how/why they did not review the Andrew Luck 2nd rushing "touchdown" in last night's Colts-Jags epic match up. Supposedly the ref got the call from upstairs that it was reviewed and relayed to the head official on the field however the latter never made any announcement to the fans/coaches which led to Mike Mularkey blowing a gasket at the 20 yard line. I think that was a goal line stand. There's a brief second where you can see on the replay that the ball looks to be over the goal-line but it also looked like Luck did not have complete control over it at that point. Either way, I don't necessarily have a problem with the call on the field but that there was not communication from the head official before the extra point that the previous play was reviewed upstairs and upheld.
Friday, November 2, 2012
RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (Part 2)
Part 1 here
In my last post I concluded that based on stats alone RGIII is clearly out-performing Andrew Luck thus far. However, stats rarely tell the whole story. Let's dive in a little bit.
For all the hoopla about RGIII's arm strength and deep ball accuracy, the Redskins coaching staff haven't quite turned him loose yet. Most of this throws have been short ones or on the run. Essentially they are putting their young signal caller in the best position to win right now and that is by utilizing his skills but making up for his obvious deficiencies being a rookie in the league. Griffin has had only 5 completions in 15 total attempts this season that traveled more than 20 yards downfield. On the contrary, Luck is 12 for 35 on throws more than 20 yards. So the Colts have been allowing Luck to take a lot more shots down the field - more than double that of the Redskins with RGIII.
When I watch the tape, I notice RGIII getting rid of the ball very often after his first read, sometimes after his second read. I see him making quick decisions with the ball and getting it out in the hands of his receivers in space. I don't see him going through his entire progression on most plays. On the other hand, I see Luck doing the opposite more often than RGIII. Now, no quarterback should be going through all or even most of his progressions on most plays - that would be a sign that either a) his receivers just can't get open or b) the quarterback is being indecisive. But I do notice the Colts giving Luck a lot more progressions to go through than the Redskins are with RGIII.
Then there's the rushing ability. Obviously RGIII has an advantage in that department. He is the one with special talent as a runner and a coaching staff that is obviously willing to let him run, despite concerns over exposing him to big hits such as the one he took against the Falcons. In half a season, RGIII has proven to be a dynamic runner. But long term, this trend is disturbing, in my opinion. On the other side, Luck has actually been running the ball a healthy amount of times as well. 26 attempts for 143 yards and 3 TDs. That's definitely more than your average quarterback in the NFL.
Based on the three points above, my conclusions are as follows. The Colts are throwing a much more conventional NFL offense at Luck and are likely putting a lot more plays on Luck's plate than the Redskins are with RGIII. The Redskins are protecting their franchise guy by nurturing him as a passer. I wish they'd do the same with him as a runner. The Colts are, ironically enough, taking the Peyton Manning approach with Luck. They are giving him the whole playbook and allowing him to go through his growing pains. They don't seem to be spoon feeding or watering down the playbook because Luck is a rookie. And Luck is doing pretty well, given the circumstances. He's got the Colts at 4-3 and in the AFC landscape as it stands today that might be good enough to get into the playoffs. Whereas, the Redskins do seem to be watering down the playbook and giving Griffin short, high-percentage passes while taking the occasional deep shot. They're also allowing Griffin to use his 4.41 speed by calling designed runs and option plays. Obviously both franchises are hoping that their respective rookie quarterback turns into a franchise guy for the long run and are developing him as such. But it would seem that the Redskins are in a little bit more "win-now" mode than the Colts but are receiving opposite results as they are just 3-5 and in a tough NFC. Obviously there's a lot more that goes into the records besides just the way the team manages their quarterbacks and how those guys perform. Both teams have played different opponents, their defenses are different, etc etc.
In the long run, I think both teams are taking the right approach (for the most part) with their respective rookie quarterback. I have always been impressed with Luck's knowledge and cerebral approach to the game and he's showing that he can handle the full playbook. Whereas RGIII works best when he's allowed to just go out there and make plays instead of trying to make him a pocket passer that will go through multiple progressions before throwing the ball. The one issue I do have though is how Washington has been constantly putting Griffin in a situation where he is exposed to big hits. He is not Cam Newton. He is fairly small in stature in comparison to the prototypical NFL quarterback. He will not be around for many games if he keeps taking those type of hits. I understand that it's part of his game, maybe even the best part of his game, but you can't get short-sighted with your franchise quarterback.
I'll try and do another review at the end of the season. I'm interested to see if these trends continue or if anything changes. Hope you found it interesting and I always welcome a healthy debate on any of the posts I make. Feel free to comment below.
In my last post I concluded that based on stats alone RGIII is clearly out-performing Andrew Luck thus far. However, stats rarely tell the whole story. Let's dive in a little bit.
For all the hoopla about RGIII's arm strength and deep ball accuracy, the Redskins coaching staff haven't quite turned him loose yet. Most of this throws have been short ones or on the run. Essentially they are putting their young signal caller in the best position to win right now and that is by utilizing his skills but making up for his obvious deficiencies being a rookie in the league. Griffin has had only 5 completions in 15 total attempts this season that traveled more than 20 yards downfield. On the contrary, Luck is 12 for 35 on throws more than 20 yards. So the Colts have been allowing Luck to take a lot more shots down the field - more than double that of the Redskins with RGIII.
When I watch the tape, I notice RGIII getting rid of the ball very often after his first read, sometimes after his second read. I see him making quick decisions with the ball and getting it out in the hands of his receivers in space. I don't see him going through his entire progression on most plays. On the other hand, I see Luck doing the opposite more often than RGIII. Now, no quarterback should be going through all or even most of his progressions on most plays - that would be a sign that either a) his receivers just can't get open or b) the quarterback is being indecisive. But I do notice the Colts giving Luck a lot more progressions to go through than the Redskins are with RGIII.
Then there's the rushing ability. Obviously RGIII has an advantage in that department. He is the one with special talent as a runner and a coaching staff that is obviously willing to let him run, despite concerns over exposing him to big hits such as the one he took against the Falcons. In half a season, RGIII has proven to be a dynamic runner. But long term, this trend is disturbing, in my opinion. On the other side, Luck has actually been running the ball a healthy amount of times as well. 26 attempts for 143 yards and 3 TDs. That's definitely more than your average quarterback in the NFL.
Based on the three points above, my conclusions are as follows. The Colts are throwing a much more conventional NFL offense at Luck and are likely putting a lot more plays on Luck's plate than the Redskins are with RGIII. The Redskins are protecting their franchise guy by nurturing him as a passer. I wish they'd do the same with him as a runner. The Colts are, ironically enough, taking the Peyton Manning approach with Luck. They are giving him the whole playbook and allowing him to go through his growing pains. They don't seem to be spoon feeding or watering down the playbook because Luck is a rookie. And Luck is doing pretty well, given the circumstances. He's got the Colts at 4-3 and in the AFC landscape as it stands today that might be good enough to get into the playoffs. Whereas, the Redskins do seem to be watering down the playbook and giving Griffin short, high-percentage passes while taking the occasional deep shot. They're also allowing Griffin to use his 4.41 speed by calling designed runs and option plays. Obviously both franchises are hoping that their respective rookie quarterback turns into a franchise guy for the long run and are developing him as such. But it would seem that the Redskins are in a little bit more "win-now" mode than the Colts but are receiving opposite results as they are just 3-5 and in a tough NFC. Obviously there's a lot more that goes into the records besides just the way the team manages their quarterbacks and how those guys perform. Both teams have played different opponents, their defenses are different, etc etc.
In the long run, I think both teams are taking the right approach (for the most part) with their respective rookie quarterback. I have always been impressed with Luck's knowledge and cerebral approach to the game and he's showing that he can handle the full playbook. Whereas RGIII works best when he's allowed to just go out there and make plays instead of trying to make him a pocket passer that will go through multiple progressions before throwing the ball. The one issue I do have though is how Washington has been constantly putting Griffin in a situation where he is exposed to big hits. He is not Cam Newton. He is fairly small in stature in comparison to the prototypical NFL quarterback. He will not be around for many games if he keeps taking those type of hits. I understand that it's part of his game, maybe even the best part of his game, but you can't get short-sighted with your franchise quarterback.
I'll try and do another review at the end of the season. I'm interested to see if these trends continue or if anything changes. Hope you found it interesting and I always welcome a healthy debate on any of the posts I make. Feel free to comment below.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
RGIII v. Andrew Luck - mid season review (part 1)
First off, I hope you were not too affected by "Superstorm Sandy." I imagine if you were, you probably wouldn't be reading this blog until maybe next week. In any case, I hope you and your loved ones are all safe and sound and are not too inconvenienced in the aftermath of the storm.
I kinda took this week to look at some things on my blog and have decided on a new format. I won't be doing the weekly picks and predictions or the week in review. Frankly, I just don't get the opportunity to watch as many games as I'd like over the week and you can probably get posts like that on any of the major sports sites. Instead, I'd like to delve a little deeper into a particular team or player's performance based on what I see for that week or even over a few weeks.
In light of the new format, I thought a good way to kick it off would be a mid-season review between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III - the #1 and 2 overall pick, respectively, in this year's draft.
I kinda took this week to look at some things on my blog and have decided on a new format. I won't be doing the weekly picks and predictions or the week in review. Frankly, I just don't get the opportunity to watch as many games as I'd like over the week and you can probably get posts like that on any of the major sports sites. Instead, I'd like to delve a little deeper into a particular team or player's performance based on what I see for that week or even over a few weeks.
In light of the new format, I thought a good way to kick it off would be a mid-season review between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III - the #1 and 2 overall pick, respectively, in this year's draft.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
TNF preview/prediction
Bucaneers - Vikings:
The Bucs and Vikings are interesting teams. Both are young, although the Vikes probably have more veteran leadership (but the younger quarterback). This is a tough game to pick because this is a case of "the immovable object moves the unstoppable force" kind of thing. The Bucs' best offensive strength, week 7 explosion notwithstanding, is running the football and that is the Vikings' defensive strength. On the other side, the Vikes are very good and dependent on running the football and the Bucs are also very good at stopping the run. The Bucs have been force feeding the ball to Vincent Jackson and the Vikings have been shutting down opposing #1 wide receivers. Something's gotta give and with the rules in today's NFL, I'm giving the edge to offense.
I think Adrian Peterson will keep the running attack successful enough that the Bucs can't get away with playing two-deep coverage against Percy Harvin and co. Because this is a Thursday night game, I'm expecting another relatively low scoring affair although each team has the offensive players to put some points on the board. I think the Vikings will play a slightly conservative style of offense in the beginning and try to use the run to set up the pass. I think the Bucs will try to sprinkle in runs but I see more of a short passing game in order, especially with Doug Martin.
Vikings 23 - Buccaneers 18
The Bucs and Vikings are interesting teams. Both are young, although the Vikes probably have more veteran leadership (but the younger quarterback). This is a tough game to pick because this is a case of "the immovable object moves the unstoppable force" kind of thing. The Bucs' best offensive strength, week 7 explosion notwithstanding, is running the football and that is the Vikings' defensive strength. On the other side, the Vikes are very good and dependent on running the football and the Bucs are also very good at stopping the run. The Bucs have been force feeding the ball to Vincent Jackson and the Vikings have been shutting down opposing #1 wide receivers. Something's gotta give and with the rules in today's NFL, I'm giving the edge to offense.
I think Adrian Peterson will keep the running attack successful enough that the Bucs can't get away with playing two-deep coverage against Percy Harvin and co. Because this is a Thursday night game, I'm expecting another relatively low scoring affair although each team has the offensive players to put some points on the board. I think the Vikings will play a slightly conservative style of offense in the beginning and try to use the run to set up the pass. I think the Bucs will try to sprinkle in runs but I see more of a short passing game in order, especially with Doug Martin.
Vikings 23 - Buccaneers 18
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Week 7 NFL Nuggets
Seahawks 6 - 49ers 13:
- The Seahawks came into this game with a very sound gameplan, but great coaches make the right in-game adjustments and that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did. The hawks took away Alex Smith's primary weapon in the passing game - Vernon Davis. They double and triple teamed him the entire game, chipping him with a linebacker and then having a defensive back pick him up while the linebacker plays underneath. But the 49ers just said, "hey that's fine, you want to double cover Davis and leave Gore alone underneath, we'll take that all day." This was the key in-game adjustment that won the 49ers this game.
- Also, Alex Smith is a fine quarterback when your team is in the lead and you're playing to protect it. But asking him to come from behind and put up points in a hurry is going to be disaster. This might be what ends up deciding how far they go in the playoffs this year with teams like the Falcons who put up points in bunches.
Titans 35 - Bills 34:
- Where do I begin with this game? I'm going to use this space as a rant session so I apologize in advance. If you wish to avoid this, please feel free to scroll past this game.
Let's just go right down the list of issues that this Bills team has going into their bye week.
1. Lack of focus/consistency on defense: With this talented defensive line, there is no reason any running back should have 190+ yards rushing on them, especially with a mediocre talent at quarterback. The Bills show good gap control SOME of the time, and I thought their best game thus far against the run was against the Browns where they held Trent Richardson to 2.3 YPC. That was their most complete game in the run defense department. Their problem is not talent, it's lack of focus. Plain and simple. They do not play with the same urgency and intensity on every play and frankly this is the main reason this team is not 5-2.
2. Bad calls at crucial times: There's plenty of blame to go around the past couple of weeks, even with the narrow victory against Arizona. But one of the main things I have a problem with is the very weird play calling I've noticed from Chan Gailey. In back to back weeks now, I've seen Gailey call a pass late in the game with the lead.
- Against Arizona, it was a Brad Smith pass from the Wildcat formation. I love the fact that he finally called a pass from the Wildcat because I don't think they have been exploiting that part of the game, but in that situation to ask a guy who hasn't thrown a pass in a regular game in a loooong time going against Patrick Peterson is just terrible decision making. The best result would be a touchdown, but the worst result is a turnover giving the other team the chance to go down and tie or win the game - and that's exactly what happened. Jairus Byrd bailed them out with a pick in OT to set them up for the winning field goal.
- Against Tennessee, this past week, on a 3rd down being up 6 points at home, Gailey calls for a pass play despite the Bills shredding Tennessee on the ground. Fitzpatrick's foolish throw aside, that pass better be a high percentage throw at that point in the game (as in essentially a long handoff). That play, of course, ends up in an interception which gives Tennessee the opportunity to score the go ahead touchdown. Chan Gailey - C'mon Man!
3. Terrible decision-making by Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzy does a lot of smart things on the football field. He puts that offense in a position to succeed with his pre-snap calls a lot more than he doesn't. I'll give him credit there. But for a guy who's supposed to be this "cerebral"quarterback with an ivy league education, he makes some DUMB decisions/throws at crucial points in the game.
Let's go back to the late game INT against the Titans - he says he was trying to hit Donald Jones on the deep comeback because he saw the corner trying to "squat" on the underneath route by Stevie Johnson. But where was the necessity for that throw?! Your head coach puts the ball in your hands to close out the game and you take a huge risk?! instead of just throwing the ball to a high percentage area of the field and giving the receiver a chance to get a first down? He makes a throw that a quarterback should make when they're down 6 points, not up 6 points.
Once the Titans go up and the Bills get another chance to get into field goal range, he throws short and safe passes! Are you kidding me?! A 6-7 yard pass to Stevie Johnson over the middle and then a 1 yard pass to Scott Chandler. Then an incompletion. And then on 4th down and 2 to go, he tries hitting Stevie for 10-12 yards down the sideline! Of all plays, why take that low percentage high risk pass on 4th and 2? There were at least 2 receivers that I counted that were open in the middle of the field and I know things get hectic and its a high pressure situation but Fitzy didn't even look at them. It's almost as if he had his mind made up pre-snap that he was going to Stevie. Did the Bills need yards at that point in the game? Yes, absolutely - especially given the short passes on first and second down. But did the Bills need a first down more than anything to keep them alive? YES! I know Fitzpatrick does not have the arm to be a franchise quarterback, but now he's proving that he cannot avoid making the wrong decisions at the wrong times in the game - an area of supposed strength of his game. Unless there's a drastic turnaround, and I'm not holding my breath, the Bills will be looking for a starting quarterback in next April's draft.
Ravens 13 - Texans 43:
- Remember when Joe Flacco called himself elite? Yeah, that was dumb. He has the physical tools to be an elite quarterback - I don't doubt that. But he's been having a case of the "Fitzpatricks" lately. Dumb decisions, especially when he feels the pressure to put the team on his back. I get the feeling Flacco wants to be the hero more so than getting out of a hostile environment with a win. Guys like Brady, Brees, and the Manning brothers are satisfied only with a win.
- The Ravens run defense looked okay for the most part. I didn't think Ray Lewis would be missed that much on that front and I don't think he was (at first glance). Also, they got a boost from Terrell Suggs who, quite honestly, is a medical miracle. Nobody in their right mind expected Suggs to be active, let alone productive. He might be the boost, long term, that pulls this defense out of the basement.
Browns 13 - Colts 17:
- Heck of a game by Brandon Weeden. Josh Gordon - you gotta catch that pass! I know the sun got into your eyes, or so you say, but you gotta hang on to that. This team is young but they have a lot of talent on there. They're a few pieces away from having the talent to compete with any team in the league, but they still have a long way to go mentally.
I pretty much stopped watching football for the rest of the day after the Bills loss. I just couldn't bear it. Plus my choices were either the Raiders - Jaguars or a game in which I hate both teams: Patriots - Jets. I was a little happy to see the Jets lose but I couldn't give you anything in either of these games since I watched almost none of it.
Lions 7 - Bears 13:
- Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop the Detroit Lions. Put your best corner on Calvin Johnson and play 2-deep safeties over the top. The Lions don't really have a running game except for occasional success and until they find that or a second wide receiver who will command more attention, teams will be content with stacking just six or seven defenders in the box. Mikel LeShoure looked pretty good on some runs last night but he is not doing it consistently enough to command any respect and he keeps putting the ball on the ground. I don't really believe in any curses, but man that Madden curse sure seems to be ringing true for Calvin Johnson this year. In fact, every year since its inception, at least one player on the Madden cover has been cursed. I say "at least one player" because the only player (as far as I know) that has "defeated" the dreaded curse has been Larry Fitzgerald and that year he was on the cover with Troy Polamalu who had an injury-filled dreadful season.
- Stafford looked ordinary and a lot of that was the Bears defense but he's been looking underwhelming for the past 3-4 weeks now. His tendency to latch on to Calvin Johnson is troubling, considering he's supposed to be a veteran. Now that Nate Burleson is out for the season, either Titus Young or Ryan Broyles will have to step up or this Lions team will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
- The Seahawks came into this game with a very sound gameplan, but great coaches make the right in-game adjustments and that's exactly what Jim Harbaugh did. The hawks took away Alex Smith's primary weapon in the passing game - Vernon Davis. They double and triple teamed him the entire game, chipping him with a linebacker and then having a defensive back pick him up while the linebacker plays underneath. But the 49ers just said, "hey that's fine, you want to double cover Davis and leave Gore alone underneath, we'll take that all day." This was the key in-game adjustment that won the 49ers this game.
- Also, Alex Smith is a fine quarterback when your team is in the lead and you're playing to protect it. But asking him to come from behind and put up points in a hurry is going to be disaster. This might be what ends up deciding how far they go in the playoffs this year with teams like the Falcons who put up points in bunches.
Titans 35 - Bills 34:
- Where do I begin with this game? I'm going to use this space as a rant session so I apologize in advance. If you wish to avoid this, please feel free to scroll past this game.
Let's just go right down the list of issues that this Bills team has going into their bye week.
1. Lack of focus/consistency on defense: With this talented defensive line, there is no reason any running back should have 190+ yards rushing on them, especially with a mediocre talent at quarterback. The Bills show good gap control SOME of the time, and I thought their best game thus far against the run was against the Browns where they held Trent Richardson to 2.3 YPC. That was their most complete game in the run defense department. Their problem is not talent, it's lack of focus. Plain and simple. They do not play with the same urgency and intensity on every play and frankly this is the main reason this team is not 5-2.
2. Bad calls at crucial times: There's plenty of blame to go around the past couple of weeks, even with the narrow victory against Arizona. But one of the main things I have a problem with is the very weird play calling I've noticed from Chan Gailey. In back to back weeks now, I've seen Gailey call a pass late in the game with the lead.
- Against Arizona, it was a Brad Smith pass from the Wildcat formation. I love the fact that he finally called a pass from the Wildcat because I don't think they have been exploiting that part of the game, but in that situation to ask a guy who hasn't thrown a pass in a regular game in a loooong time going against Patrick Peterson is just terrible decision making. The best result would be a touchdown, but the worst result is a turnover giving the other team the chance to go down and tie or win the game - and that's exactly what happened. Jairus Byrd bailed them out with a pick in OT to set them up for the winning field goal.
- Against Tennessee, this past week, on a 3rd down being up 6 points at home, Gailey calls for a pass play despite the Bills shredding Tennessee on the ground. Fitzpatrick's foolish throw aside, that pass better be a high percentage throw at that point in the game (as in essentially a long handoff). That play, of course, ends up in an interception which gives Tennessee the opportunity to score the go ahead touchdown. Chan Gailey - C'mon Man!
3. Terrible decision-making by Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fitzy does a lot of smart things on the football field. He puts that offense in a position to succeed with his pre-snap calls a lot more than he doesn't. I'll give him credit there. But for a guy who's supposed to be this "cerebral"quarterback with an ivy league education, he makes some DUMB decisions/throws at crucial points in the game.
Let's go back to the late game INT against the Titans - he says he was trying to hit Donald Jones on the deep comeback because he saw the corner trying to "squat" on the underneath route by Stevie Johnson. But where was the necessity for that throw?! Your head coach puts the ball in your hands to close out the game and you take a huge risk?! instead of just throwing the ball to a high percentage area of the field and giving the receiver a chance to get a first down? He makes a throw that a quarterback should make when they're down 6 points, not up 6 points.
Once the Titans go up and the Bills get another chance to get into field goal range, he throws short and safe passes! Are you kidding me?! A 6-7 yard pass to Stevie Johnson over the middle and then a 1 yard pass to Scott Chandler. Then an incompletion. And then on 4th down and 2 to go, he tries hitting Stevie for 10-12 yards down the sideline! Of all plays, why take that low percentage high risk pass on 4th and 2? There were at least 2 receivers that I counted that were open in the middle of the field and I know things get hectic and its a high pressure situation but Fitzy didn't even look at them. It's almost as if he had his mind made up pre-snap that he was going to Stevie. Did the Bills need yards at that point in the game? Yes, absolutely - especially given the short passes on first and second down. But did the Bills need a first down more than anything to keep them alive? YES! I know Fitzpatrick does not have the arm to be a franchise quarterback, but now he's proving that he cannot avoid making the wrong decisions at the wrong times in the game - an area of supposed strength of his game. Unless there's a drastic turnaround, and I'm not holding my breath, the Bills will be looking for a starting quarterback in next April's draft.
Ravens 13 - Texans 43:
- Remember when Joe Flacco called himself elite? Yeah, that was dumb. He has the physical tools to be an elite quarterback - I don't doubt that. But he's been having a case of the "Fitzpatricks" lately. Dumb decisions, especially when he feels the pressure to put the team on his back. I get the feeling Flacco wants to be the hero more so than getting out of a hostile environment with a win. Guys like Brady, Brees, and the Manning brothers are satisfied only with a win.
- The Ravens run defense looked okay for the most part. I didn't think Ray Lewis would be missed that much on that front and I don't think he was (at first glance). Also, they got a boost from Terrell Suggs who, quite honestly, is a medical miracle. Nobody in their right mind expected Suggs to be active, let alone productive. He might be the boost, long term, that pulls this defense out of the basement.
Browns 13 - Colts 17:
- Heck of a game by Brandon Weeden. Josh Gordon - you gotta catch that pass! I know the sun got into your eyes, or so you say, but you gotta hang on to that. This team is young but they have a lot of talent on there. They're a few pieces away from having the talent to compete with any team in the league, but they still have a long way to go mentally.
I pretty much stopped watching football for the rest of the day after the Bills loss. I just couldn't bear it. Plus my choices were either the Raiders - Jaguars or a game in which I hate both teams: Patriots - Jets. I was a little happy to see the Jets lose but I couldn't give you anything in either of these games since I watched almost none of it.
Lions 7 - Bears 13:
- Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop the Detroit Lions. Put your best corner on Calvin Johnson and play 2-deep safeties over the top. The Lions don't really have a running game except for occasional success and until they find that or a second wide receiver who will command more attention, teams will be content with stacking just six or seven defenders in the box. Mikel LeShoure looked pretty good on some runs last night but he is not doing it consistently enough to command any respect and he keeps putting the ball on the ground. I don't really believe in any curses, but man that Madden curse sure seems to be ringing true for Calvin Johnson this year. In fact, every year since its inception, at least one player on the Madden cover has been cursed. I say "at least one player" because the only player (as far as I know) that has "defeated" the dreaded curse has been Larry Fitzgerald and that year he was on the cover with Troy Polamalu who had an injury-filled dreadful season.
- Stafford looked ordinary and a lot of that was the Bears defense but he's been looking underwhelming for the past 3-4 weeks now. His tendency to latch on to Calvin Johnson is troubling, considering he's supposed to be a veteran. Now that Nate Burleson is out for the season, either Titus Young or Ryan Broyles will have to step up or this Lions team will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
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