NFL Draft - QB Notes

These are my notes I took from watching film of some of the QB's in this draft from their bowl games a few months back. I should've posted them before the draft but I forgot.

GENO SMITH, QB (West Virginia) 6'3", 220 lbs:
- Was asked to run a multiple offense, everything from pistol to traditional I to singleback. 

Negatives:
- Slow release
- Happy feet in the pocket
- Shoddy footwork
- Dropback from under center is too slow and uncoordinated
- Doesn't do a good job of carrying out play-action fakes
- Very inaccurate on short throws (mostly footwork related + field conditions were bad)
- Poor mechanics on deep throws (caveat: field conditions)

Positives:
- Flashes good accuracy and strong arm on intermediate throws
- Plenty of army strength to make all the throws

Outlook: He has all the physical tools to be a starting QB in the NFL but he needs a lot of work on his footwork, mechanics, and field awareness. Most of his college throws were behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which inflate his stats a bit. Based purely on physical traits, he's a borderline first rounder. But add the coaching he needs, he shouldn't go before middle of the second round.

RYAN NASSIB, QB (Syracuse) 6'3", 230lbs:
- Was running a high tempo offense (mostly shotgun spread)

Negatives:
- Short, choppy drop back (but mostly due to field conditions)
- Inaccurate when rolling out of the pocket, usually high and outside
- Mediocre deep ball accuracy
- Arm strength on deep balls is suspect, evidenced by the height of his throws.

Positives:
- Quick, strong release
- True spiral on his throws
- Good footwork out of shotgun, consistent and he sets up very quickly to get rid of the ball
- Adequate arm strength to make all the throws in the NFL, but will need better mechanics on deep balls

Outlook: Overall he is a bit limited skill-wise but he is a very polished passer. His decision making needs to improve at the next level. His mechanics in the pocket and awareness are very good. Does a very good job of avoiding pressure and he maintained his level of play in the worst of conditions (rain/sleet/wind). He is the closest of this group to come in and start in the NFL but his upside is somewhat limited due to a limited skill set. He's best in a west coast offense.

EJ MANUEL, QB (Florida State) 6'5", 240lbs:
- Ran a no huddle, West Coast offense, mostly 3 to 5 step drops, and shotgun. Ran a good chunk of option plays as well.

Negatives:
- Poor pre-snap adjustments, needs work on varying snap count and making consistently proper sight adjustments
- Throws to his first look too often

Positives:
- Excellent footwork and patience on play action fakes
- Quick release at the top of his dropback and nice, tight spiral.
- Very athletic for a man his size
- Cool in the face of pressure, maintains composure and footwork and delivers the ball accurately
- Good touch on short/swing passes
- Plenty of arm strength to put zip on the football
- Extends plays with his feet well
- Accurate passer on the run to both sides of the field

Outlook: Easily the most gifted passer in this class. However, he is not as polished as some of the more experienced guys. He played behind Christian Ponder mostly due to lack of experience. He reminds me of a rawer Cam Newton. He's farther along than Geno Smith as a passer but still would benefit from sitting behind a veteran for at least half a season.

EJ Manuel ended up being a first round pick to the Bills; Geno Smith was a second round pick to the Jets; Ryan Nassib ended up with the Giants as a fourth round pick.

NFL Draft Six-Pack

The 2013 NFL Draft is upon us and it has been another crazy scouting off-season in the NFL. Just a few thoughts before tomorrow nights festivities kick off:

1. This is the first time, since I've started religiously following the draft, that nobody knows who the Chiefs will pick with the first overall pick. That is a result of two things, in my opinion. One - There is no consensus #1 player in this draft. But such has been the case in the recent past, so that is not an anomaly. Two - With the rookie salary cap in place since last year, teams picking #1 overall won't be tipping their picks by negotiating with them before the draft. Last year, we all knew since mid-season 2011 that Andrew Luck was going #1. All the RG3 talk made it interesting, but ultimately I don't think anyone in the NFL community actually believed that the #1 pick would be anyone but Andrew Luck. This year, as a result of both of the above factors, this will be a more exciting draft simply due to the "unknown" factor.

2. Over the past three months I've heard a lot of reports, and subsequently confirmed for myself by watching a little tape, that this draft is light in the top ten picks but pretty deep overall, especially in the offensive line and the defensive front seven. This means the rich keep getting richer because playoff teams will have the chance to pick a player that really might not be graded much lower or at all than the top 10 picks.

3. I envy the 49ers roster. A Super Bowl squad before we even begin the draft + Anquan Boldin in free agency + 13 picks in this draft to wheel and deal around to get the players they want or get future picks. That is how you build a franchise and set it up for success. Kudos to Trent Baalke

4. Speaking of the Super Bowl, this is where the Ravens build their roster. Living down the street from the stadium in Baltimore, I heard a lot of fans panicking a little when they saw Ozzie Newsome gut the Super Bowl winning roster of numerous starters on both sides of the ball, including franchise icon Ed Reed and Playoff MVP Anquan Boldin. Add the fact that their emotional leader Ray Lewis also stepped away from the game and I could almost understand the Ravens' fans anguish. But Newsome, like in the past, stayed relatively quiet in the first wave of free agency and then came away with the best pass rusher who became available due to a fax snafu, Elvis Dumervil, and a solid free safety to replace Reed, Michael Huff. I expect Ozzie to quietly pick the best player available on their board and keep re-tooling the Ravens roster. After all, they lost eight starters the previous off-season and then went on to win the Super Bowl. I trust in Ozzie.

5. Tavon Austin reminds me those Leon Sandcastle ads on NFL Network. Before the combine, he was a second round pick. Since blowing up the combine with a  4.34 forty yard dash, media pundits have vaulted him to as high as the #4 overall pick. He's a slot receiver who is a nightmare to tackle in the open field, but I don't see a top-20 player when I watch him. He's been the hottest name in the draft so far.

6. This is also the first draft that I can remember where there isn't a consensus #1 QB, or even a top three QB list that scouts and media experts can agree on. I've seen Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, and even Landry Jones as the top QB in this draft. This is one of the main reasons for point #1 above. And this is also why the Chiefs, Raiders, Eagles, Cardinals, and the Bills (all picking in the top-8) went out and got veteran QB's this off-season. Nobody is completely sold on the QB class this year but the fact that it's the most important position on the football field will vault them up the draft board and thus dictate much of the movement in this draft.

Enjoy the draft everyone and let me know if you'd like me to post anything about a particular player or team after the draft.

Winning the Super Bowl in March

Free Agency, in my opinion, should never be relied upon to build the core of your team. In football, unlike baseball or basketball, simply getting the most productive player available at his position does not guarantee you continued production. In fact, it doesn't necessarily even make it likely. I've always seen NFL free agency as a few teams, usually the same ones that aren't playing into January regularly, overpay for mediocre talent, while smart teams, the ones that do go deep into the playoffs, make good value deals after the first wave or two of free agency has passed.

Like anything else, there are always exceptions. Last year we saw the Colts part with one of the best quarterbacks of our generation and a sure-fire hall of famer with still a few years left in him. It took a season-ending injury and a "once every ten years" prospect in Andrew Luck for the Colts to even consider releasing Manning. My point is this: every general manager and front office has a valuation of every player close to entering free agency. The ones who are able to properly evaluate the value of the available player AND stay disciplined to that evaluation are the ones that consistently put a playoff roster together. You look at the Ozzie Newsomes and the Bill Belichicks of the world, there's a reason why their respective teams consistently make the playoffs while still never enter salary cap hell. Yes they have the big quarterback question answered, and of course coaching has a lot to do with it, but what separates the good teams from the great is the middle to lower thirds of the roster. Every playoff team has made it there with quality depth because football is a violent sport and chances are you will lose a few starters along the way to injuries.

Just last year, the Bucaneers and the Bills were universally hailed as free agency winners and where were they in January? Free agency is an exciting time for NFL fans, but just be careful of overreacting one way or the other on your team's moves. The Ravens traded away Boldin because he refused to take a $2 million dollar paycut and the Patriots let Welker walk and sign with the Broncos for essentially $1 million per year. These may seem like horrible decisions but Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are two of the best GMs in football. In the words of Scott Pioli, "free agency is a fine line between paying for past and future performance." I'm not saying the Niners or the Broncos made bad decisions by signing Boldin or Welker, respectively. In fact, I think the decisions by all four franchises involved are sound. It just shows that the Niners and the Broncos valued Boldin and Welker, respectively, a little more than the Ravens and the Patriots did. Who ended up making the better decision? We'll see in the next couple of years. But one thing is for sure, Super Bowls aren't won in March.

NFL Combine - 40 times, workouts, and Manti Te'o

The annual "underwear olympics", as NFL Network's Mike Mayock calls it, is upon us. As usual, the most talked about event at the combine (and the most overrated in my opinion) is the 40 yard dash. The least talked about event is usually the medical examinations but ironically is probably the most important as far as NFL teams are concerned. Following the combine for the past few years I've learned that teams generally use the combine for information gathering. Contrary to popular belief, the 40 time does not automatically improve or hurt a player's draft stock. What it does is force the teams to go back and watch more tape on a particular player if he times slower or faster than expected. All the drills at the combine serve teams as an indicator. If the guy runs as fast and moves as well as expected then the combine drills serve as a reinforcement of what the tape has shown all year. However if the guy runs faster or slower, or does better or worse in the combine drills then teams will dig hard to find out why. Did the player lose weight since the college season to move faster/smoother? Is that weight ideal for his frame in the NFL? Did he maintain his strength while shaving off the fractions of a second of his 40 time? Every year there's a handful of athletes who blow the doors off the combine and get over-drafted. The past few years I've seen teams like the Raiders and Jets blow early picks on workout warriors who go on to disappoint once the pads go on.

Every year there's a few players that NFL teams have more question marks on than the average player that can be answered at the combine. In my opinion, this year, the top 10 list is as follows:

1. Manti Te'o, LB (ND): His biggest hurdles will be the team interviews and really all the drills. No player, in my opinion, has as much to lose or gain as Te'o does this weekend. He is off to a good start with his press conference yesterday where he answered every question with genuine honesty, in my opinion. Now he needs to show teams that the national championship game tape was an aberration in the drills and by having a good bench press number to show his strength. 

2. Geno Smith, QB (WVU): He needs to show teams his speed and arm strength in drills. His 40 time will either solidify the general consensus that he is capable of running the read option in the NFL that has gained popularity this year or not.

3. Jarvis Jones, LB (GA): His biggest hurdle is the medical examinations. Teams have a lot of concern over whether his spinal stenosis diagnosis at USC will limit his career in the NFL. We saw DeQuan Bowers in the recent past go from a top-5 pick to mid 2nd round due to medical issues. Jarvis is probably a top 5-10 pick on tape but he may also take a huge tumble on draft day if enough teams don't see favorable medical reports on him.

4. Cordarelle Patterson, WR (TENN): Patterson is very green and last year was his first full year starting. But, on tape, he looked explosive with the ball in his hands and a natural pass catcher. He reminded me of Julio Jones a little bit and if his 40 time and his WR drills confirm this, he might sneak into the top 10.

5. Tavon Austin, WR (WVU): Austin is a dynamic play maker in space and his 40 time will likely confirm this. If he can show teams that he is a natural pass catcher in drills while making adjustments on the fly and if his height/weight doesn't come up lower than expected he could sneak himself into the first round. NFL teams would love to have a wild-card like Austin in the slot.

6. Tyler Eifert, TE (ND): Many teams have a two-way tie for the number one tight end this year between Eifert and Zac Ertz of Stanford. I think Eifert jumps off at you on tape just a bit more and having a better 40 time and a better performance in the drills might solidify him as the top tight end in this year's class and a mid-first round pick.

7. Dion Jordan, LB (OR): Jordan is a very intriguing prospect in that he was very productive and his ideal length and array of pass rush moves could be very useful as a 3-4 OLB. With more teams moving to the 3-4 this year, they will be paying close attention to Jordan's wingspan, how he moves in the drills, and his 3-cone drill time. He could be a top 10 pick in April when all is said and done.

8. Margus Hunt, DE (SMU): Hunt has what a lot of teams are looking for - size, speed, and athleticism on the defensive line. At 6'8", 280 and a plethora of pass rushing moves, and the versatility to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end, teams will be looking to see if he has JJ Watt like qualities. They certainly show up on tape, now he needs to show that his measurables are on par with his tape. If so, he will sneak into the first round.
 
9. Mike Glennon, QB (NC ST): The general consesnsus around the league is that Geno Smith is the top quarterback as of now, although he is not exactly on solid ground. After him, it's between Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. Glennon's strengths are his rocket arm and more than ideal height. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of mobility, and his composure/pocket presence. It'll be hard for him to show teams that he's overcome those weaknesses in a combine setting but he can at least reassure teams on his arm strength and show them he has more mobility than expected by showing well in the movement drills.


10. Tyler Wilson, QB (ARK): Like Glennon, Wilson is battling for that 2nd spot behind Geno Smith. He needs to answer questions on his arm strength and accuracy. He had a better Junior season than Senior so he also needs to score well in his interviews. If he's able to convince teams that his digression from 2011 to 2012 was more a product of his head coach leaving and a lack of playmakers all the while maintaining his leadership qualities and taking some of the blame himself he might enter the late first round discussion. As of now, he's a 2nd rounder to me.

By the way, asides from all the potential rookies that NFL teams will be closely watching this weekend, the combine has also served as a meeting point for NFL GMs and their own unrestricted free agents. It's a rare occasion where all 32 GMs will be present in one building and sports agents use this venue to start having face to face meetings.

The Big Game and the Off Season

Jim Harbaugh has got to be sleeping with a picture of Colin Kaepernick underneath his pillow and kissing it every night before he goes to bed. A lot of people in the sports world ripped on Harbaugh for benching his staring quarterback, who at the time had the highest quarterback rating in the league, for a second year player who had zero starts under his belt. I applauded the move because I, like Harbaugh, did not believe that Alex Smith was the guy that would get the 49ers over the hump. I will also be the first to admit that I didn't know Kaepernick was that guy either, and I bet Harbaugh also didn't KNOW but had a lot more insight into what Kaepernick could and could not do than any of us did. This is the kind of coaching that has brought the 49ers to the big game in a year after their hearts were broken in the championship game. Every 49ers fan is out reveling in the glory that is Super Bowl week but if you caught any of them this time last year they'd probably lock themselves into a room and cry themselves to sleep after watching images of Kyle Williams muffing not one, but two punts in the same game against the Giants.

And lets not forget an equally daring decision that will probably never get the same amount of publicity as the Kaepernick decision: Older brother John Harbaugh making the decision to fire an ineffective Cam Cameron and handing the offensive keys to Jim Caldwell. Since then, Flacco has looked every bit of his self-proclaimed "elite" and I've heard some Raven fans actually wonder if their team can afford to keep Flacco or if they wouldn't have been better off with Flacco being mediocre so that he'd cost less to keep. To them, all I say is - I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. Caldwell is taking advantage of Flacco's arm and aggressive tendencies and balancing  that with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce to keep the defenses honest. The gameplan, thus far, has been sound. The one blemish Caldwell has as a Ravens play-caller was against the Broncos in the regular season, but that was his 5th day on the job.

All the hoopla this week will be disgusting. The media will beat the Harbaugh brother story to death. There will be fabrications left and right and people will wonder who started them and if it had anything to do with the opposing team. The Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl are reminders to most football fans that the season has ended and the off-season has begun. The Super Bowl is more of an event, an entertainment show for 3-4 hours rather than solely a football game between the two best teams in the NFL. There's probably a large minority or maybe even majority of the viewers watching just for the commercials. For people like me, I love this time of the year. I love how much more access a fan now has to the  NFL off-season process. I recorded Senior bowl practices so that I can be as close to it as possible short of being an NFL scout. Next month we'll have the combine followed by free agency in March and then the draft in April. I guess as a Bills fan I've had a lot of time to research and watch draft prospects since they're typically out of it by November. So, over the years, I've come to appreciate that process and I love the part where I get to figure out who's good and who's not and which team will draft whom.

By the way, NFL scouts have been working all year round. They've been visiting campuses to watch and scout seniors all year long and once the Juniors declare for the draft they will trek back to those campuses and do homework on them. They will have watched countless hours of tape, interviewed players at the bowl games,etc etc. I guess I can't not say something about the Manti Te'o thing so I'll just say this: By the time the draft rolls around, we'll have as complete a picture as we probably need to on this story. I don't know what happened. If I had to guess, from the looks of it he got caught in a scam, discovered that he was being duped but then was too embarrassed, like any normal human being would be, to reveal that he'd been duped. The biggest tell I've gotten so far on him is that Te'o is not the sharpest tool in the shed and is gullible. All things considered, not the worst quality in a NFL middle linebacker. Hopefully he has the right people around him advising him through this mess and helping him in the future to avoid pitfalls such as this.

As it says on my high school football sweatshirt - "There is no off season" 

Why Kaepernick is the right decision and Sanchez the wrong one.

Many NFL story-lines as we enter week 14. There's the MVP race, two rookie quarterbacks lighting up the league, Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson - either of whom could be the MVP or the Comeback player of the year, Baltimore's road woes and now apparently their home woes against a Charlie Batch led Steelers, and much much more. But I wanted to talk about quarterback decisions made in San Fransisco and New York and why Harbaugh has it right and Ryan continues to make the wrong one.

First the Kaepernick decision: I sympathize with Alex Smith. As he best put it, he did nothing to lose his job except get a concussion. But switching to Kaepernick is the right decision for two reasons:

1. Smith is a solid quarterback and Harbaugh knows this. However Smith is a game manager and a good decision maker. The offense is decidedly conservative because of it. He's not the quarterback to lead your team on a comeback down 14 points to Matt Ryan and Falcons in the playoffs. We don't know if Kaepernick can do that either but we can find out. Kaep certainly has the skill set. He's got a stronger arm and can make all the NFL throws plus he has the legs to bail him out of most bad situations and get some serious yardage. As a player he's a poor man's Cam Newton with maybe even a stronger arm. He's just not as polished a passer yet.

Harbaugh knows all of this. He's seen enough in practices and games to want to go after Peyton Manning in the off season. So far the 49ers have been able to dominate against average opponents while stay alive against quality opponents. The Giants blow out of the 49ers in October has been a rarity in the Harbaugh era. The Niners have a dominant defense, a very good offensive line and running game. But like any defense made of humans, they'll have their bad days and it's games like that where the lack of a great quarterback is evident.  Whether Kaepernick is that guy remains to be seen, but it's a proactive decision to want to find out.

2. The second reason I like the Kaepernick decision is because switching to Alex Smith is very much in play. If Kaepernick proves to be unable to perform well in games, Harbaugh can easily pull the plug on the second-year player and plug the veteran Smith back into the lineup. And having a motivated Alex Smith trying to lead your team can't be a bad thing. But now let's flip the situation around. If Harbaugh had stuck with Smith and lets say the Niners are forced to pull him in the middle of a playoff game when they're down big or even after the game (if they survive with a win), putting in a green Kaepernick at that point is a much worse situation. At least with the current situation, Kaepernick will get some much-needed experience in the regular season and the coaching staff will get to get a long look at him and cater a game-plan to his strengths which they wouldn't get otherwise if Smith fails and they end up making this decision at halftime in the divisional playoffs.

Bottomline, I love the decision by Harbaugh because its a head coach doing everything he can to make it to the Superbowl this time and win it. They still have the all world defense and running game to keep them in most games. Kaep might be able to get them over the hump.

In New York, Rex Ryan continues to exemplify just how much of a circus show the Jets really are. Mark Sanchez is not a franchise quarterback. I don't even think he's as good a quarterback as Alex Smith. The whole world has seen enough of Mark Sanchez. We've seen him do enough to get his team to the AFC championship game but now we've also seen his shortcomings when the Jets are without their best defensive player and probably their best offensive player. Even the Jets owner, Woody Johnson, wants Ryan to start McElroy over Sanchez. With over $8 million guaranteed to Sanchez next year, he's a lock to be on the roster. And unless the Jets go out there and get some solid veteran insurance and put the Tebow project to bed or give him a chance, Sanchez will probably be the starter.

To me, this is the type of decision that could end up slowly hurting your franchise for the next 5 years. Ryan should take a page out of Harbaugh's playbook and start McElroy. They're not going to the playoffs this year (although they are still mathematically alive), but they do need to figure out what to do with Sanchez next year. And finding out whether McElroy can at least be serviceable help make the decision. Plus Rex Ryan has lost at least part of the locker room. Anonymous players have come out and said that they do not think Sanchez is a good quarterback. This is a mess and there are many reasons for it but like any other football team the head coach and the quarterback will take the brunt of the blame for it.

NFL Week 10 Nuggets

- I find it ironic that I really don't see much difference in the officiating between the replacement refs and the regular guys. It seems that the replacement guys made a lot of obvious mistakes but got some of the bigger calls right (the Green Bay/Seattle debacle notwithstanding). I see the regular refs make equal number of mistakes, if not more, but they are just not as obvious to the casual fan. I saw horrendous calls that possibly altered the game in the St.Louis/San Francisco, the New England/Bufalo, the Pittsburgh/Kansas City, the Carolina/Denver , and the Philadelphia/Dallas games. Maybe the replacement refs weren't so bad after all.

- I think the rules in place intended to protect quarterbacks within the pocket are proving to be more hurtful when they are outside the pocket. This week, we've seen concussions to at least four starting quarterbacks, two of which were vicious hits they took on the run (Alex Smith and Jay Cutler). I get frustrated just watching these ticky-tacky calls on defenders when they take a shot at a quarterback in the pocket, so I know the defenders must be frustrated as well. But once the QB starts running the ball outside the pocket, he's just like any other runner and you know defenders are licking their chops at a shot at the guy that is so protected by the NFL - they might as well just put a red jersey on him. I completely understand the business side of the NFL's decision to implement these rules. It's a QB-driven league and they are protecting their investment. I also understand the concern for player safety after decades of poor tackling form that starts as early as pee wee football and results in multiple concussions. But some of these calls against defenders is threatening the integrity of the game. These plays are so bang-bang, high speed, and the quarterbacks nowadays are all great emmy-worthy actors. I hate seeing a 3rd down stop by the defense nullified and a free 15 yards awarded to the offense on what should be a non-call.

- Two players that impress me even more now that they are coming off injury this year: Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning. Either of them are a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year or the NFL MVP. I think AP impresses me the most because of how soon he came back from that injury and how amazing he has been thus far. A modern medical marvel. Running backs with ACL injuries seldom regain their form, and even then it takes them at least a season to work through it. AP tore his ACL last winter and by September he was back tearing up the league.

- As purely an idea at this point, they should allow coaches to challenge any two referee calls during the game (except for maybe pure judgement calls like when the play was blown dead). If the coach/team gets both of the calls to go his way, then they get an additional challenge - just like the current challenge system. I know the refs, generally, do an amazing job of officiating the game. But in this age of technology, there is no reason to have bad calls affect the outcome of the game. And don't give me that crap about the inconvenience of the game being stopped. If it affects fans so much, why aren't they flocking to watching soccer? NFL games have TV timeouts after every first down it seems like. No wonder the Chiefs games don't get many commercials.

- The Ravens caught a lucky break by possibly not having to face Big Ben in either of their regular division games. In a scheduling anomaly, the Ravens and Steelers face each other in 2 of the next 3 games. The first game is in Pittsburgh and Flacco and the Ravens have been atrocious away from Baltimore this year. Nothing has been confirmed yet but it looks like Big Ben is almost sure to miss the first game. He may be back in time for the game in Baltimore but the Ravens (and Flacco) are unstoppable at home. While on paper, this is a clear advantage for the Ravens, I would never rest easy knowing Mike Tomlin is across the field.

- Say what you want about the Kansas City Chiefs, they know their shortcomings at Quarterback. I thought I was watching the Jacksonville Jaguars last night as the Chiefs ran basically three plays over and over and over again. A run to the right, a play-action pass off the run action to the right, and a pass play with multiple curl routes. Like the Jags on Thursday night, the Chiefs also threw a pick as a defender jumped the curl route. In the end, the game was way closer than it should've been. But as a play-caller, I don't understand why they wouldn't change it up a little bit once the defense has shown that it has adjusted to your base plays?  I understand the weather factor, but that is no excuse. Both teams have to deal with that. I would hope Cassel isn't that bad. If he is, and if the coaching staff doesn't believe in him, why put him out there? Either way this team is the favorite to pick Matt Barkley this off season.