Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.

Already picked: Rams 23 - Cardinals 20 (Result: Rams 17 - Cardinals 3)

Eagles 17 - Steelers 24: Pittsburgh coming off a bye week, at home. If the Eagles weren't so talented, this would be my lock of the week. The Steelers get Mendenhall back, and they need him badly to get their running game going. The Eagles have been excellent against the run thus far so this will be a match-up to watch. If Pittsburgh is able to control the line of scrimmage on offense, and pressure Vick with their returning superstars Polamalu and Harrison, they should be walk away with a win. For the Eagles, Vick would have to be mistake free for them to have a chance, and they need to ride McCoy to wear down that defense and slow down that pass rush. I just don't see those things happening, which is why I'm picking Pittsburgh.

Packers 31 - Colts 21: The Packers have major issues on their offensive line and if Dwight Freeney (Questionable) can be a meaningful contributor it might force the Packers to dial up quick plays and lean on the running game. I expect the Packers to keep with their up-tempo offense, especially with Jennings missing this game. I saw Rodgers finally get into a rhythm last week without Jennings in the line-up so I'm expecting him to be more comfortable in the pocket. I think the Packers go up early and then turn their pass rush loose but I see Luck and the Colts get some garbage-time points. The Colts, by the way, will be without their head coach Chuck Pagano who was diagnosed with Leukemia earlier this week so they will be playing with heavy hearts. Unfortunately they'll be going up against a very motivated Packers squad.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Browns 10 - Giants 28: The Giants lost a heart-breaking division game to the Eagles last week and now get to go back home and face an underwhelming Browns squad and a rookie Quarterback. This score might be even more lop-sided but I think they win by at least two scores. Until Weeden learns how to handle NFL pressure and make accurate throws the Browns passing game will be hot and cold. Plus its not like they have any dynamic weapons on offense besides, maybe, Richardson. What's worse is that the Browns are still without Haden and their defense, so far, has been pedestrian. Even without Hakeem Nicks, the Giants have plenty of weapons as long as Eli Manning is slinging it.

Falcons 31 - Redskins 24: This has the makings of a shootout. Matt Ryan has this offense humming and asides from a monster Week 1, they haven't even gotten Julio Jones going yet. Jones, who was slowed down last week with a laceration on his hand (plus he was double-covered for most of the game), says he's recovered completely so I'm expecting this Atlanta offense to be even more dangerous than it has been. And the Redskins defensive backfield might be the worst in the NFL. At least RGIII will give them a fighting chance to keep pace.

Dolphins 21 - Bengals 24: The Dolphins have shown that they can move the ball on offense, despite mediocre weapons at receiver. Brian Hartline is having a renaissance season, and if Reggie Bush is over his injury this offense should be able to take advantage of an underachieving Bengals defense. On the other side, the Dolphins are excellent at stopping the run but give up a lot of passing yards. AJ Green and Andy Dalton have been on fire for the last month so they will move this offense through the air for the majority of the afternoon. When it comes down to it, this game is a lot closer than I think most people expect. I'm giving the edge to the home team with better weapons all around.

Ravens 31 - Chiefs 14: This game is another good candidate for lock of the week but the Chiefs defense will at least give the Ravens some resistance. I know this game is in Arrowhead, which is a very tough venue for away teams, but I just don't see how the Chiefs can slow down this no-huddle offense right now which is hitting on all cylinders. So far, the no-huddle has been run efficiently. As long as the Ravens continue on that path, they should come away with an easy win in Kansas City. Cassel has been showing us for the past couple of years that he is a mediocre QB who is a product of the New England Patriot system. I think the Chiefs are very close to nearing the end of the line with him. The problem is, they have Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi behind him....yeah I'd be sticking with Cassel too.

Seahawks 24 - Panthers 28: The Panthers finally got Cam Newton going last week but came up short in the end against the undefeated Falcons. Russell Wilson is no Matt Ryan and I expect the Panthers to be able to zero in on stopping Lynch and come away with a victory. The Seahawks are very good at all three levels on defense but Cam seemed to be hitting his stride last week so just a gut feeling that the Panthers get a win here.

Bears 27 - Jaguars 14: The Jags entire offense is Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Chicago Bears are pretty good on defense against the run and the pass. The Bears are also very good at rushing the passer, meanwhile Gabbert might be the worst QB in the face of pressure. If it wasn't for the Bears offensive line issues and their inability to consistently protect Cutler I would be projecting an even bigger win for Chicago.

Broncos 24 - Patriots 34: The Patriots got into their offensive rhythm last week and beat up on my Buffalo Bills. This team is still very dangerous and the Broncos have been only mediocre in pass coverage thus far. I see Welker, Gronk, and Brandon Lloyd having good games. The Pats defense is much better on short to intermediate throws than it is on deep throws. So far the Broncos seem to be shying away from too many deep throws anyways so this this plays into the Patriots strength. I think it will be a close one in Foxboro, but the home team wins here.

Bills 18 - 49ers 31: The 49ers are a top 5 team, and are one of two complete football teams in my opinion. They will pound the rock, and throw off play action and boot legs on offense; we already know how good their defense is. The Bills, fresh off a divisional whipping at the hands of the Patriots, travel cross country going up against a much better team with an inconsistent QB. This will be another early exit for the San Fransisco starters.

Titans 13 - Vikings 27: The Titans running game finally got on track last week but a good chunk of CJ?K's yardage was in garbage time. I'm not buying yet. The Vikes are very good against the run and with Locker being injured their pass defense gets to face an over-the-hill Hasselbeck. On the other side, the Titans are horrendous on defense and the Vikings are judicious with the football on offense. I see the Vikings dominating this game, but maybe not on the scoreboard.

Chargers 24 - Saints 31: These teams are actually much closer to each other than their respective records would indicate. I just don't see the Saints going 0-5. I think Drew Brees pretty much wills this team to a victory. The Saints are a bottom-5 defense, but the Chargers aren't exactly lighting the defensive rankings on fire either. This will be somewhat of a shootout and my gut says Saints.

Texans 28 - Jets 14: I think this could be a trap game for the Texans and maybe the Jets even show some signs of life in the first half but the talent disparity is just too large between these two teams. The Jets will be without their best defensive player in Revis, and arguably their best offensive player in Santonio Holmes. Plus Mark Sanchez is terrible and the Jets defense isn't much better. On the other side, the Texans are the other complete team I was referring to earlier. Their defense is elite and so is their running game, and Schaub will keep defenses honest by throwing it deep to Andre Johnson a couple of times.

Bye: Raiders, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs

Last week's picks:  9-6

NFL-Week 4 Random Thoughts

Browns 16 - Ravens 23:

As I expected, this game was a lot closer than most people thought it would be. Cleveland's season comes down to the development of Weeden as a pocket passer. He's excellent when he's able to set his feet and with a clean pocket, but like most young quarterbacks he notices the pressure far too quickly and reacts to it which leads to errant throws, turnovers, and/or sacks. The Browns can't wait to get back Joe Haden and they sorely missed him in this game as both Boldin and Torrey Smith absolutely destroyed their corners.

I credit the Ravens for not falling for the trap game and putting this game away - although it came down to the last throw and almost a retake of the Packers-Seahawks replacement ref debacle. Flacco is showing, with each game, that he is ready to take the next step. This is a very good team that will get a huge boost when they get Suggs back. They are still lacking in run defense right now, but that should take care of itself as the season goes on.

Patriots 52 - Bills 28:

Where do I begin with this one? This was truly a tale of two halves. In the first half, despite a couple of turnovers, Buffalo seemed like it had an answer for Brady and the Pats offense and they seemed to be moving the ball and putting points on the board while take advantage of the Pats' turnovers. Spiller had a crucial fumble at the goal-line right before the half that would've given the Bills a 14 point lead going into halftime. Heck, they even started the 2nd half with a score on their first possession getting that 14 point lead after all - but it was literally all downhill from there for Buffalo. 35 unanswered points and an embarrassing 45 points allowed in the 2nd half ; that pretty much sums up the game for the Bills. And what was even more disheartening was that it wasn't so much Brady as it was the running game with only a couple of different running plays that Belichick just ran over and over again and the Bills simply could not stop them. They got pushed off the ball with so much ease, I could have probably averaged 4-5 yards a carry for the Pats.

I have to give the Patriots credit for sticking to the game-plan and making the necessary half-time adjustments. I never sensed any panic on their sideline even when they were down 14 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills looked in control. The Bills, on the other hand, has a long way to go. This team has the talent, and they have the will, but honestly what this team lacks is the mental fortitude to put the game away. They play their best football when coming from behind, but they are clueless what to do with a lead. They have their roughest part of the schedule coming up with a couple of west coast trips. We'll find out very soon what kind of team this is.

Panthers 28 - Falcons 30:

What a close game! The Panthers played pretty well and hung with the Falcons throughout the game. Cam Newton had a very good day throwing and running and he did not turn the ball over. The defense found it's pass rush although they couldn't stop the run or the pass for much of the game. This team has some serious holes on defense and they are very young. For example, the Panthers decide to punt the ball from midfield with 1:09 left (this is a whole different issue that I will address below). They down the ball at the Atlanta 1 yard line. As a defense you have to expect one of two things - either a run right up the middle so that the offense can get out of its own end zone, or a long pass down the sideline. With Atlanta having no timeouts left, the defense has to be thinking pass here. The Falcons run a play action deep ball to Roddy White down the left sideline and the Panthers just didn't seem ready for it. They had Haruki Nakamura, who really wouldn't start for any other team in the NFL and who was a special-teamer in this league up until this year, provide support over the top against one of the best receivers in the game. This team won't take a step forward on defense until they start making better in-game adjustments.

The Falcons played excellent on offense but their defense just didn't have an answer for Cam Newton which is what kept the Panthers in this game. But I have to give them credit for that comeback; Ryan managed that offense like an elite quarterback and that offense just looked very focused on that last drive - everybody on the same page.

49ers 34 - Jets 0:

I caught very little of this game, but every time I did tune in I was a little happy to see how terrible the Jets offense looked. Tebow will be starting soon enough I think.

Seahawks 13 - Rams 19:

I knew this was going to be a close game and I thought that the Seahawks would not be able to rebound from the emotional and controversial MNF win against the Packers. This Rams defense is very underrated. Cortland Finnegan is a top five corner in this league that doesn't seem to get the recognition. Not only can he shut down the top receiver on the opposing team, he is an excellent run defender. That's a rare combination to have in your corner.

The Seahawks are very good on defense but they are really lacking a passing game. If they weren't 2-2 we might be talking about benching Russell Wilson, not that it's entirely his fault. This is all I got from the occasional drive I watched.

Raiders 6 - Broncos 37:

The Broncos are really good on offense and defense. They've just been a victim of a very tough schedule thus far - they beat Pittsburgh, an AFC powerhouse, at the season opener and then lost to the Falcons and the Texans the following two weeks - arguably the two best teams in the league right now and both undefeated. So I fully expected this result against a much weaker, albeit divisional, foe. Peyton Manning is looking much like the 2010 guy and he has very good weapons in Thomas, Decker, and Tamme. I hate to say it but Willis McGahee is looking very good as well. His vision seems to be much better than when he played for Buffalo, but I do see him dancing behind the line every so often still. I can't not say something about their defense - they played solid throughout the game. This defense is built to defend the pass and I think that's the right idea with Peyton Manning at quarterback - you figure you'll be playing with a lead more often than not and you need to be able to defend it.

The Raiders came into this game pretty banged up and they are still getting that zone running scheme working. I'm still not sure Carson Palmer is going to take this team over the hump. McFadden has top RB in the league skills but he has yet to put it together. This division belongs to the Broncos as of now and their only competition seems to be the Chargers.

Redskins 24 - Buccaneers 22:

The Bucs are another one of these teams that are trying to make it over the hump and they're doing it with a rookie head coach. I was not a fan of their offensive game plan. I realize that the Redskins have had issues defending the pass, but you still have to make them respect the run and keep them honest. Plus Josh Freeman isn't a top-10 quarterback so why put all the pressure on him? Their biggest mistake, though, was playing for the field goal in the waning moments of the game. I realize RGIII, as dynamic as he has proven to be, is not Tom Brady, but still that Redskins offense can move the ball with ease and the Bucs made it very clear that they were content with a field goal to win that game by 1. The only problem was the the Redskins had timeouts left and plenty of time to come back on the last drive and kick a game winning field-goal of their own.

Not enough coaches are aggressive in the NFL, and there are many others who are aggressive at the wrong moments in the game. Greg Schiano is not alone.

Giants 17 - Eagles 19:

The Eagles had an excellent game-plan for the incoming Giants, who had 11 days to prepare for this contest. Vick played a turnover-free game and they finally put the ball in McCoy's hands. This is the best way for them to get back on track and what a luxury to have turned the ball over as many times as they have and still be 3-1.

The Giants could not get the ground game going and while they were able to move the ball through the air, they couldn't put it in the end zone. Their special teams, particularly the kickoff return team, had an excellent game. Rookie running back/returner David Wilson averaged 36 yards per return but really it was like 41 yards since he was returning the ball from the middle of the end zone every time.

Bears 34 - Cowboys 18:

The Cowboys are just like the other teams trying to make it over the hump themselves but that's not the perception we have of them, mainly because of who they are and the texan-sized animal that is the Dallas Cowboys. Truth of the matter is, this team is lacking players with mental fortitude just like the Buffalo Bills or the Carolina Panthers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They cannot focus on the task when the game is on the line - simple as that. I saw undisciplined play, lack of focus and urgency from them. When Romo throws five interceptions, though not all of them were his fault, you cannot expect to win (unless you're playing against the Bills - which the Cowboys actually did a few years back).

The Bears defense is very good, especially up front. That defensive line looks very much like the Giants defensive line. They have big guys who are very athletic and rangy and can all rush the passer very well. They essentially have four defensive ends playing on that D-line that can also stop the run. They still have issues on the offensive line, and much has been made of the sideline rift between Cutler and offensive coordinator Mike Tice, but if they can not shoot themselves in the foot on offense they could come away with a division title with the Lions and the Packers struggling somewhat. By the way, although I am not a fan of Cutler's antics on the sideline and in the huddle, he does have some legitimate beef here - there were several times when the plays coming in took a long time giving Cutler only 8-10 seconds to get to the line, make his pre-snap adjustments and get the ball snapped. That is not enough time for any quarterback and this usually ends up in sacks or turnovers for the offense or wasted timeouts. Another thing I have noticed with Tice is that despite shoddy offensive line play thus far, he refuses to keep extra blockers to in to protect Cutler despite calling for plays that include slow-developing routes. All of these issues will surely rear their ugly heads if the Bears lose, but for now they are on ice for one more week.

Thursday Night Football pick:

Rams 23 - Cardinals 20:

The Rams match-up with the Cardinals really well and I just don't fully buy the 4-0 record for the Cards. I think Finnegan will keep Fitzgerald in check for the most part and the Rams pass rush will take advantage of that weak Cardinal offensive line. The Cards will stay in this game largely due to their defense and its not exactly like the Rams offense will strike fear in anybody. I can just as easily see the Cardinals with a victory but I'm just making a gut call that Fisher will have the Rams ready to play on a short week.

Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.

Already picked: Ravens 21 - Browns 14 (Result: Ravens 23 - Browns 16)

Patriots 24 - Bills 28: Upset special! The Bills finally have the defensive line to pressure Brady without a blitz. They've always had a  tough time covering Welker and tight-ends in general so Gronkowski should have a good day. But their run defense is much better this year; meanwhile their run game might end up being a mixture of Jackson, Spiller and Choice with the first two questionable for this game. This game will come down to which Fitzpatrick shows up. For the Pats, they are missing Hernandez and now Mankins; apparently Gronk is questionable as well but I don't buy that he'll miss the game.

49ers 27 - Jets 14: The Jets cannot run the ball to save their lives and their passing game isn't much better. The 49ers, I think, will have a defensive score in this one with the way Sanchez is throwing the ball. It's a home game - which means if Sanchez stinks it up we very well could see the Tebow chants grow louder. As I've mentioned before, the Niners are a complete team and they were upset last week by the Vikings - look for them to respond in a big way.

Seahawks 17 - Rams 20: I know the Seahawks have had the winning edge in this matchup for a long time but this is where the Rams turn the tide. The hawks got away with one on Monday night and after such an emotional game this one seems like a trap game. Based on pure matchups, the Seahawks would win this 9 out of 10 times. But I just have a gut feeling that the Rams pull this one out.

Panthers 17 - Falcons 34: This Panther defense is horrendous against the run and the pass. And then there's Matt Ryan and his boys who are on fire. Yeah - talk about the perfect storm! Cam Newton has been regressing thus far this year and that Falcon defense is playing great football right now. I think this one will be in the bag by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Vikings 20 - Lions 31: The Lions offense finally found a running game last week and Stafford was on the injury report earlier in the week but he'll be fine. This offense is still finding its groove and the same can likely be said about the defense as well. The Vikings get Jerome Simpson back, which will help stretch the defense and open up holes for Harvin, Rudolph, and Peterson. I think the Lions get the home support behind them and start reminding us of last year's team.

Chargers 34 - Chiefs 17: The Chiefs upset the Saints last week, but this Charger defense is likely peeved off after getting sliced up by Matt Ryan last week. Cassel is no Ryan and this Chiefs offense runs through Jamal Charles so the Chargers should be able to stack 8 in the box and focus on stopping him. Ryan Mathews will finally get it going for the Bolts and they will win at Arrowhead (one of the toughest venues for an away team).

Titans 10 - Texans 28: The Texans are the best team in football right now and the Titans are a mess on both sides of the ball. This one is another game that will likely be done by the 3rd quarter. The Titans cannot run block to save their lives - Chris Johnson's average per carry before contact is 0.5 yards. Let that marinate for a minute. He goes, on average, half a yard before he takes contact by the defense. The Texans will likely go up early and milk the clock down with their two stud running backs.

Bengals 20 - Jaguars 23: Another slight upset here - the Bengals have been terrible at defending the pass thus far and the Jaguars are at home which will hopefully keep Gabbert from making too many mistakes. The Jags will play conservative offense, as they have thus far, and ride Jones-drew to a last second victory.

Raiders 17 - Broncos 28: An old-time division rivalry. I think this is the week that Peyton Manning finally gets into groove and gives them solid play for all four quarters. The Bronco defense has been pretty good so far but they will be without linebacker Joe Mays so I can see McFadden having a pretty good game. But outside of that, the Broncos will show us that they are pretty good. They've been somewhat unlucky thus far having played two top-5 teams the last two weeks.

Dolphins 16 - Cardinals 30: The Cardinals are for real and their 3-0 record is not a mirage in the desert. If they get solid play from Kolb and if Ryan Williams can give them solid production on the ground, their defense will be able to keep them in most, if not all, games. The Dolphins just don't have the weapons to match-up against this defense right now and it doesn't help that Bush, their best offensive threat, is banged up right now.

Redskins 17 - Buccaneers 23: The Bucs have also been victims of a tough schedule thus far. They played the Giants down to the wire and then went blow for blow with an ultra-talented Cowboys squad. They, surprisingly, have the best run defense in football right now and Gerald McCoy has been a break through player for them thus far. The skins cannot keep trotting RGIII out on those option plays and exposing the rookie to big hits. They also cannot cover anyone right now so I think the Bucs should be able to come out with a win in this one.

Saints 27 - Packers 34: This has the makings of a shootout. The Saints are not as much of a machine on offense as they used to be but they're still pretty good - on the other hand they cannot stop anybody right now. The Packers are coming off of a heart-breaking controversial loss to the Seahawks on Monday night so look for them to be fired up for this one in front of their home crowd. Who would've thought that three weeks into the season these two teams would have a combined record of 1-5?

Giants 28 - Eagles 25: Another great division match-up, the Eagles might be the most over-rated 2-1 team right now. They definitely have the talent, but its the fact that they've managed to win despite a minus-6 turnover ration is mind-boggling! They can't keep that up and expect to come out with a win. The Giants will take care of business early, even without Hakeem Nicks, and the Eagles will make it close late but come up short.

Bears 17 - Cowboys 31: The Bears have been excellent at rushing the passer thus fur but they also have been terrible at pass-blocking for Cutler. Demarcus Ware is smacking his lips for this match-up. The Bears have been great on defense thus far but with their offense putting them in terrible spots as much as they have, they can't keep up with the Cowboys. Romo finally starts clicking and the Cowboy defense might end up with a defensive TD in this one.

Bye: Colts, Steelers. 

Last week's picks: 7-9

NFL-Week 3 Random Thoughts

Giants 36 - Panthers 7:

I try not to over-react to one game, especially at the QB position in today's passing league. Anyone can have a bad day. So I'm not worried yet about Cam Newton, but another week or two of sub-par passing and we might be seeing a sophomore slump from the ultra-talented QB. I'll have to watch his tape again but just at first sight I noticed his accuracy is off and he is latching on to one receiver too often - he had some similar issues to end last season and they seem to have carried over to this season.

The Giants just continue to show us why they are the class of the NFL. No Bradshaw, no problem - meet Andre Brown, who was cut by eight different NFL teams since he was drafted a few years back. No Hakeem Nicks, no problem - meet Ramses Barden who was buried on the depth chart and had 9 catches all of last year; he had 9 for 138 on Thursday night. Eli was being himself - spreading the ball and taking what the defense gave him (and the Panthers were being particularly generous). The Giants show the rest of the NFL what separates them: quality depth.

Jets 23 - Dolphins 20:

Sanchez is back to his old self - being wildly inconsistent. I just don't see him as a franchise QB. I still stand by my pre-season prediction that by week 6 we'll be seeing Tebow under center on a regular basis. Now that Revis is out for the year, there will be even more pressure on the offense to carry this team, which means more pressure on Sanchez. Additionally, I don't understand how Shonn Greene hasn't lost his job yet. He is a plodder in its truest sense. He has no wiggle, no perimeter speed - he will literally take what the offensive line gives him and nothing more.

On the Dolphins side, Tannehill will be a working progress all year. The Fins have given him almost nothing to work with so its a little hard to judge him. On the other hand, the O-line is a very good run blocking team. No wonder Bush is continuing his resurgence.

Bills 24 - Browns 14:

This score would've been even more lop-sided if not for an early injury for C.J. Spiller. The Buffalo running game has been dominant thus far in the season. The O-line has been very good at opening lanes and Chan Gailey has designed great plays to take advantage of Spiller's speed and acceleration while protecting him from his diminutive size. Once Tashard Choice took over, Gailey did a good job of adjusting his play-calling and keep the rushing attack productive. As an offensive play-caller, Gailey is very good at understanding his players' strengths and putting them in a great position to succeed. It also helps when the "Good Fitzpatrick" shows up - he made several key throws and kept that offense moving against an underrated Browns defense. But they do need to take a few deep shots in the game to keep the defense honest - they really haven't had to do that yet, but success in that department will likely help them get over the hump. The Bills pass-rush was again very present throughout the game and that front seven is proving to be very good against the run. Defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt is following the Giants model: rush 4 for most of the game and keep rotating the d-line in order to send fresh waves at the opposing offensive line. The additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson allow for that.


Speaking of defense, the Browns sorely missed Joe Haden. They were routinely burned on short and intermediate routes by Stevie Johnson and co. And the rushing totals for Buffalo would've been far higher if Spiller hadn't gone down early in the game. Things don't get much easier this week facing the Ravens with only half a week to prepare. The Browns offense will only go as far as Weeden takes them. He simply does not handle pressure well. He's excellent in a clean pocket but grows timid at the first sign of trouble - that is not a winning formula at QB. The Browns would do well by getting him in a groove early in the game with some short and intermediate timing throws that gets the ball out of his hands quickly.

Chiefs 27 - Saints 24:

The Saints defense is abysmal. Jamaal Charles ran all over them and really every offense they have faced thus far has had its way with them. Greg Williams and Sean Payton are clearly missed. On offense, Brees looks more uncomfortable in the pocket than I've ever seen him. He still flashes his vintage accuracy, but overall this team is really lacking focus overall. So much for all the offseason drama bringing this team together.

The Chiefs were actually almost equally as bad on defense - they just managed to be not as bad - although their pass rush finally woke up. Charles looked back to his old self which is impressive for a speed back coming off of ACL surgery. If the Chiefs find their run defense and Matt Cassel can protect the football, this will be a solid team  that can hang with almost anyone.

Bengals 38 - Redskins 31:

I didn't get to watch much of this game, but if the Redskins don't start protecting RGIII with better play calling, he won't last all 16 games. He's not the biggest guy at QB, and I wouldn't be exposing him to head on hits by linebackers every other play by calling options. The Bengals were absolutely teeing off on Griffin - if Shanahan wants to protect his franchise QB the play calling has to change.

Vikings 24 - 49ers 13:

Both of these teams are very similar in that they are both very balanced, run-oriented offenses coupled with stout, hard-hitting defenses. Christian Ponder is proving to be a very sound investment. He makes smart decisions with the football and has under rated speed and vision as a runner. He has the looks of a solid NFL starter so far. Asides from Peterson, this offense goes through Percy Harvin who creates headaches for opposing defenses.

The Niners had a bad game against an opponent who didn't make many mistakes. I wouldn't really think much of this loss.

Falcons 27 - Chargers 3:

Matt Ryan is for real. The Atlanta pass defense has been playing lights out - I'm not sure they can sustain it. The Chargers were finally exposed against a strong opponent here - they will get back on track once Ryan Mathews does so as well.

Cardinals 27 - Eagles 6:

The Cardinals defense is playing lights out right now and they have the talent to sustain it throughout the season. This team is a few pieces away from being a playoff caliber team - namely offensive line and more consistent play out of their QB. Not that Kolb struggled; he was actually pretty solid. But I'd like to see it a couple more times from him before I declare them out of the woods with him.

What can I say about the Eagles? They might be the worst 2-1 team in the league. And it is not because they are lacking talent; rather Vick simply cannot stop turning the ball over and his accuracy is back to being downright terrible when forced to throw from the pocket. They would be wise to lean on LeSean McCoy until Vick finds his groove. On defense, they somehow kept leaving Fitzgerald open - mostly because he destroyed them with his route running. But for a team with such great corners, I was expecting better coverage.

Texans 31 - Broncos 25:

Peyton just seems off. I don't think its as much a health thing as it is chemistry with the receivers. He continues to be one second too late on some of his throws and the Houston defensive front was in his face all game so that might have something to do with it as well. Manning missed many throws leading to a 50% completion rate; luckily he didn't turn the ball over.

Matt Schaub and the Texans had their way with that Broncos secondary (when they actually did throw). But other than those limited times, they decided to just pound the Broncos front seven. The Bronco defense actually held them to a respectable yardage total, but the Texans just seemed to make a big play when they needed it. Ben Tate almost cost them the game when he fumbled late while they were trying to burn clock. Give credit for the Broncos for stripping him at that point in the game. Overall I was pretty impressed by Houston. They look like the 49ers in that they are a complete football team with a better QB and running game. If they avoid major injuries, they should be making a deep playoff run this year.

Ravens 31 - Patriots 30:

There were some horrendous calls by the refs in this game - but they seemed to be equally against both teams. Both teams were evenly matched for the entire game, although it was frustrating to watch the pace of the game being slowed down by the inexperienced refs. The Ravens just played with a little more fire and I'm sure Torrey Smith had at least a little something to do with that. My thoughts and prayers are with Smith and his family who lost his brother early Sunday morning in a motorcycle accident. On the field, Smith showed us that he's more than just a speed burner; he ran excellent routes all game and Flacco looked his way a lot. Speaking of Flacco, he is also taking the next step into elite; he made some gutsy throws and looked very much in control of this game.

New England was missing Hernandez and its running game. The former was well replaced by Welker who got more snaps due to an injury to Edelman. Why Belichick and co. were Welker's snaps is a mystery, but nobody is better at managing his roster and transitioning change than the hooded genius so I will give him the benefit of the doubt. This was a really well-fought game from both sides and the Ravens seemed to get away with a win on the heels of a questionable field goal call - however after further review, that kick was pretty clearly through the uprights.

Seahawks 14 - Packers 12:

A lot has been said about the replacement officials this week so I will try to keep this short. This is not their fault really as they've been thrust into a position they are simply not prepared for. The NFL is at risk of losing the integrity of the league if this keeps up. But, the league owners don't necessarily have any added pressure to get a deal done with the refs until it starts hurting their revenue stream. Anyways, it looks like there is a deal imminent so hopefully this will all be a moot point. Also, I have to believe that the regular officials are just as disgusted as most of the fans are so far with the inconsistent calls by the replacements. I would hope that asides from the paycheck, they are doing this at least in small part due to their love for the game of football. I think if they were ever considering conceding a few things - which by the way they are asking for a 33% raise and pension benefits as part-time employees that the NFL isn't even giving to its full-time employees - now would be the right time.

Anyways, as far as the game, I only watched the first half and Rodgers looked still out of sync with his receivers. They started moving the ball only once they committed to the run. But the Seahawks defense had something to do with that - they are proving to be a top unit who is very good at stopping the run and the pass. Bruce Irvin showed me why he was picked in the first round: think Aaron Maybin but much stronger and effective counter moves. That whole d-line is playing lights out right now and really is made up of not-so-big names which is impressive. And that secondary is HUGE....literally. Every defensive back is at least 6' 2" which is a great strength in today's passing NFL which features tall, strong receivers.

That's all for now. My Thursday night game prediction is Ravens 21 - Browns 14. I think this is a closer game than most would expect, especially with such a short turnaround for the Ravens who just played a very emotional game on Sunday night. This is a classic trap game for the Ravens and the Browns defense is actually decent but without their top corner I give the edge to the Ravens. Ray Lewis will do a good job of keeping this team focused.

Week 3 Picks and Predictions

Caveat: These are pure gut feelings for the most part, aided by limited match-up info that I do have by watching whatever games I get a chance to.

Already picked: Giants 28 - Panthers 17 (Result: Giants 33 - Panthers 7)

Remaining picks:

Buccaneers 20 - Cowboys 24: The Cowboys went from beating the world champion New York Giants on opening night to losing to an up-and-coming Seattle team. The defense has some injuries and I can see this game going the Bucs way easily. But I think Rob Ryan gets the most out of his defense and their pass coverage has been solid so far.

Jaguars 17 - Colts 27: Luck and the Colts get their second win against a less talented Jaguars team. After a very solid week 1, Gabbert seemed to regress last week and playing a 3-4 team will provide new challenges.

Bills 21 - Browns 17: Both offenses are much better at running the ball than throwing. Browns are missing some key players on defense, whereas the Bills have been able to replace Fred Jackson with NFL leading rusher C.J. Spiller. In the end, this will be a close one but I give Chan Gailey's offense an edge over Dick Jauron's defense. This is a classic trap game for the Bills.

Jets 24 - Dolphins 10: Tannehill will have his hands full with Rex Ryan's 3-4 defense and Revis is back in the lineup this week guarding whomever you consider to be the Miami #1 receiver. This is an important game for the Jets and I think they play that way.

Chiefs 24 - Saints 38: This has the makings of a shootout as both defenses have struggled so far. I trust Drew Brees and company way more than Matt Cassel and his boys. Both teams are in must-win territory but with all the off-season drama the Saints will have more pressure and thus motivation to win this game.

Bengals 17 - Redskins 21: Redskins are missing Garcon on offense but RGIII is just too hard to stop for the struggling Bengals defense. This could go either way and I think AJ Green finally breaks out, but my gut says Redskins.

Rams 14 - Bears 20: I think this game will be a lot closer than people think. The Rams are for real on defense and the Bears have some major holes on the offensive line. But I think they will ride Michael Bush to a victory leaving the Rams missing Steven Jackson.

49ers 27 - Vikings 14: Ponder is slowing growing confidence but the 49ers are just too good on defense. They will focus on AP and force Ponder to take some chances and will likely get a couple of turnovers by disguising their defensive looks pre-snap. This game might come down to special teams where both teams seem to be evenly matched giving 49ers the overall edge.

Lions 35 - Titans 17: Even though the Titans will get Britt more involved and Nate Washington back, their offensive running game is a complete mess right now and the Lions will take full advantage of that. 

Falcons 30 - Chargers 34: This is another game that has the makings of a shootout. Two quarterbacks who are really feeling it right now and both defenses have been slightly over-achieving. I think the Falcons are for real and the Chargers get their stud Ryan Mathews back. This will be another close one that could go either way, but with the west coast trip I give the edge to the home team.

Eagles 16 - Cardinals 24: In somewhat of an upset, the Cardinals will show they are for real even with a mediocre quarterback at helm. Vick and the offense just make too many mistakes and they'll be without Jeremy Maclin.

Steelers 38 - Raiders 10: I see the Steelers completely demolishing the Raiders in this game who simply don't have the talent or experience to match up with Pittsburgh. Even though this is an east coast team traveling west coast, I'm picking the Steelers in a blowout because Tomlin will have his troops ready.

Texans 24 - Broncos 27: This will end up being the closest game this week. I think Manning corrects his mistakes and squeaks one out at home. Both defenses are very good, although the Broncos defense might not look that good on the stat sheet. This will come down to the last possession.

Patriots 20 - Ravens 28: The Ravens avenge the AFC championship game loss from last year and Joe Flacco and his boys keep the Patriots reeling with their no-huddle up tempo offense. The Pats are in somewhat of a must-win here in this AFC heavy-weight matchup. 

Packers 24 - Seahawks 21: This game will be closer than most people think. Playing in Seattle is a tough task for any team and the Packers look out of sync on offense; plus they'll be without Greg Jennings. But I think they will pull this one out because that's what championship caliber teams do.

Enjoy Week 3 everyone!

NFL-Week 2 Random Thoughts

Week 2 of the NFL is in the books and these are my thoughts from the games I got to watch (which really were only a handful of games thanks to Direct TV's crappy service for the past 2 weeks):

Packers-Bears:

Watching this game I could tell that the Packers offense still isn't quite on the same page yet. Of course, not having Greg Jennings doesn't help either. It's a good thing they went out and signed Cedric Benson before the season started because they will have to lean on him, at least for a little while (as they did in this game). Benson showed the NFL that he still has plenty left in his tank by showing off his vision and acceleration in this game. It felt like he was picking up 6-7 yards every time he touched the ball.

The Bears offense is a complete mess right now. They simply cannot pass-protect Jay Cutler and what's worse is that their offensive coordinator seems too stubborn to change his philosophy - namely leave an extra blocker in the backfield to help out the sub-par offensive line. Cutler has the tools, and with Marshall in the building he has the weapons as well. But none of that will matter if he's lying on his back half the game. The Forte injury couldn't have come at a worse time for this team. I guess we'll get to see what Bush is all about in the meantime.

I can't go to the next game without at least mentioning the Packers defense - they were relentless and I was impressed with how prepared they were for this game despite the short week.

Giants-Buccaneers:

I know Greg Schiano has to defend his players but that was bush-league at the end of the game. Football is a brutal sport but there is a certain gentleman quality to it - the young Bucs crossed that line. I didn't get to watch much of this game but from what I saw it was vintage Eli; As long as he is under center the Giants will always have a chance. He is every bit as elite as Brady, Rodgers and company but he likely won't get the credit for it since he'll never put up elite numbers consistently.

Cardinals - Patriots:

You just can't help but wonder - is this the end of the era? There's much written about the Superbowl loser hangover and now Brady looks ordinary, Welker is 2nd string, and Hernandez (who just signed a juicy big contract before the season) might be out for half the season. The Pats will be fine, but this week doesn't get any easier away against an angry Baltimore team. The Cardinals did just enough to win, even though Ryan Williams almost lost it for them. This defense is very underrated. Peterson is becoming what scouts and GMs expected him to become - a top shutdown corner. Wisenhut's crew definitely knows how to play defense. Now if they can just get a decent quarterback...

Bills - Chiefs:

Fitzy was again up and down, although the scoreboard or the stat-sheet won't show it. Spiller is the real deal. His vision has vastly improved since his rookie year. The talent was always there, it was just the adjustment to the NFL. He's not going to be running over anyone anytime soon. But he's learning to be patient, take what the defense gives you, and turn on the jets without hesitation when that big hole presents itself. On defense, the Bills are very stout up the middle. Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus might be the best defensive tackle tandem in the league. With Mario Williams commanding all the attention, I wouldn't be surprised if Williams or Dareus lead all defensive tackles in sacks. This unit shut down the Chiefs running game and gave Matt Cassel fits all day. The secondary still has some work to do.

49ers - Lions:

I love watching the 49ers. They are the most complete team in the NFL right now. They can do everything really well - run, pass, play defense and special teams. You're not going to see Alex Smith drop back and sling it 50 times in a game but they don't need that from him. Smith, with all the controversy this offseason, has really tightened up his game this year. He is the perfect quarterback for this team. He's not the passing-NFL quarterback, but he's a tough, gritty player who can beat you with his technique, quick release and his feet.

Falcons - Broncos:

Matt Ryan, in this new unleashed mode, reminds me of a younger Peyton Manning (ironically enough). Ryan routinely lined up his team, saw what the defense was running, and then changed the play at the line. The offense this year in Atlanta is simpler, yet it gives him a lot of control at the line of scrimmage making his decision-making that much quicker and keeping defenses off balance. If he keeps it up, he's in for a career year. Michael Turner has lost a step - and with the number of NFL carries on his body it's really no surprise. Another thing that really impressed me about the Falcons in this game was how well the secondary played despite having a plethora of injuries at corner.

Peyton Manning, on the other hand, had a rough first half. I noticed he was late on his throws a lot leading to interceptions; The Falcons disguised their coverages really well too. But Peyton is still adjusting to his new 90% self. For example, on his first interception, the Falcons showed 8 men in the box and the Broncos had all four of their receivers running seams. At the last moment, the safety dropped back and they went into a cover-4. But this is really nothing new for Manning - the 2010 Manning makes this throw a second earlier and Tamme goes for a 20+ yard gain. But this Manning was just a hair late on the throw and his diminished arm strength doesn't help matters either. He'll adjust to this and the Broncos will be just fine.

The Broncos defense, on the other hand, played a great game despite being on the field for much of the first half and having to deal with the potent Falcon offense. As long as Manning is able to adjust to his new self quickly, this team will be making a bid for the AFC West crown. The best thing about having Manning at helm is that even though his body may not be a 100%, his mind definitely is. And say what you want, I'll take 90% of Manning over almost all but handful of quarterbacks in the NFL. Above the neck, he's still the same old Manning. He knows when to change the play to a run or a pass; he knows which matchups to exploit; he knows when to hurry-up and when to slow down. Despite everything that was going on in this game, he never seemed rattled or out of countrol.

That's it for this week.

I'll put up my Week 3 predictions. For tonight's game (by the way thank god for Thursday Night Football starting in September), I think the Giants win 28-17.

NFL Week 1 - Random thoughts

Sorry for the extremely long hiatus from this blog. I just moved out of state and was busy dealing with all the wonderful things that you get to deal with when making such a move. And its not like I'm Peter King or something....my "followers" can probably be counted on one hand (read: yes I have less than 5 followers).

Anyways, here are some random thoughts that popped into my head after somewhat digesting the Week 1 games. I'll arrange it by the matchup for the sake of organization. I will hopefully be able to do this weekly, but keep in mind that I probably won't cover every matchup as I don't usually get to watch every game every week.

Cowboys-Giants:

I had a pretty good feeling that the Cowboys were going to win. The Giants have made it a habit to start out slow in September and turn it up a notch when it's crunch time. The opposite can be said of the Cowboys. The star of the game was obviously Kevin Ogletree but we'll see how he adjusts to the game when defensive coordinators start paying attention to him.

Bills - Jets:

This team will go only as far as Fitzpatrick will - plain and simple. Week 1 was the perfect microcosm of Fitzpatrick as a QB. 1st Half he was 7 for 12 with 80 yards passing and 2 picks with a QB rating of 38.6; 2nd half he went 11 for 20 with 115 yards passing and 3 TD's and 1 INT and a QB rating of 90.6. Even that doesn't quite fully display Fitzy's inconsistencies. His QB rating by quarter was as follows:
1st - 20.8
2nd - 96.5
3rd - 62.2
4th - 118.3

When he strings together a full game, the Bills will almost assuredly win. Otherwise, they'll be on the outside looking in come January. His footwork adjustments with QB coach David Lee seem to force him to think during the game - he doesn't look as natural as he did the first half of last season. Most of his mistakes were on throws that were late. Here's hoping he'll clean it up sooner than later.

The other big area that I saw the Bills falter in: pass defense (if you even want to call it that). I'm willing to give them a break on that one (somewhat) seeing that their corners are extremely young (Gilmore, Williams) or banged up (McGee). But I'm not willing to look past the many mental errors made by the safeties - they constantly took bad angles and fell for the play fake (which the Jets totally exploited) more than a few times. Lot of work to do on both sides of the ball for this team.

The Jets, on the other hand, looked completely in control the whole game. Having Tebow in town has lit a fire under Sanchez and I saw probably the most technically sound game of his young career. He also seemed to handle the Tebow disruptions well - and for a young QB I think that is a disruption. You don't pull a guy who just went 3 for 3 on a drive with 60+ yards for a play here and then a play there. Sanchez handled it well this week, we'll see how he handles it when he doesn't have a 28 point lead in the game. 

Colts - Bears:

I didn't watch much of this game but the few plays I caught I saw Andrew Luck play a little scared. I guess this is what they mean when they say "we'll see once the bullets start flying."

Falcons - Chiefs:

Julio Jones is a beast! He might challenge Megatron for the receiving title this year. And Matty Ice finally seems to have been unleashed. We've been waiting a little while for Matt Ryan to show us he's a top 5 QB and one game will not convince me, but I saw some good signs.

Jaguars - Vikings:

Jones-Drew looked hesitant when making cuts; he still needs to get his legs under him. Gabbert looked much more poised in the pocket than last year - not that it's saying much since he looked frightened for his life on every snap last year (yes even the hand-offs).

Eagles - Browns:

I heard some high ranking officer within the company that manufactured Vick's rib protectors guaranteed that the fleet-footed quarterback would not miss any games due to injury this year (or something to that effect). If I had any money in my bank account, I think I'd take his bet. No way Vick stays upright this whole season playing behind that O-line. Also, something seems to be off with him - his accuracy is off and he seems hesitant in the pocket. The Eagles were lucky to escape with a win in Cleveland. Playing against Weeden will likely guarantee a win for most teams this season. But they would do well to lean on Shady McCoy until Vick gets his mojo back.

As for Cleveland, I've always thought Weeden was overrated and now that he doesn't have perfect protection or one of college footballs' receivers to throw to, we're seeing his true colors. I truly feel bad for the Browns as an organization. There's some humor, a Bills fan feeling bad for another franchise. But they seem snake-bitten. I know its just one week and they almost beat the Eagles - but I'd be surprised if they win more than four games this year. Their defense is actually pretty good; Weeden has a long way to go before he is NFL ready and a rookie running back with multiple knee surgeries already is a bad investment for an NFL team - as talented as Richardson may be.

Redskins - Saints:

RGIII is a better passer than Vick was when he came out of Virginia Tech. But how much better is yet to be seen. His first start, for me, is somewhat clouded by that long catch and run by Pierre Garcon. Overall he showed good poise in the pocket and adjusted well to the Saints' pressure. The Saints look out of sync and Drew Brees seemed off - almost expected after that tumultuous off-season they just had. 

49ers - Packers:

Aaron Rodgers seems out of sync with his receivers. And Jermichael Finley needs to start holding in to the catchable balls coming his way (no pun intended). 49ers might be the most balanced team top-to-bottom in this league. They just play good, solid football. The defenders cover their assignments, tackle well. The offensive line handles their assignments and Alex Smith is the perfect bootleg QB for their offense. They were a Kyle Williams muffed punt away from the Superbowl last year and they're showing they weren't a fluke.

Seahawks - Cardinals:

I was expecting more out of Russell Wilson in this game - he was rather pedestrian. But its not like he has great weapons to throw to and as I said before, things change once the games start to mean something. He's got plenty of time to show us he can be a franchise QB. Kolb, on the other hand, almost seems to do his best work coming off the bench. He rallied the Cardinals to a victory and will likely start the next couple of weeks. This might be the spark he needed to turn his career around.......we shall see.

Panthers - Buccaneers:

Rookie head coach Greg Schiano will play what many of today's fans will refer to as "boring football." He'll run the ball a lot, make Freeman check-down, and focus on tight coverage and aggressive defense. I think it's exactly what the doctor ordered for the young Buccaneers. The Panthers sorely missed Jonathan Stewart in the run game but give the Bucs some credit. Their run defense seems to be looking up.

Steelers - Broncos:

Peyton Manning looked about 90% - which is probably about 10 times better than Tim Tebow as a passer. And, just for the record, I'm not a Tebow-basher by any stretch. Manning was back to his old ways, spreading the ball around without bias and consistently getting first downs. The Steelers really seemed to miss their running game. Jonathan Dwyer came on a little too late for them.

Ravens - Bengals:

The toughest thing about the no-huddle offense for an offensive coordinator is knowing when to say "no". Say what you want about Cam Cameron, he called this game perfectly. The pace kept the Bengals on their heels most of the game, and just when they caught up to the Ravens mentally, Cam slowed the game down while the Bengals defense became over-aggressive. The no-huddle is a great tool for any offense, especially in today's passing NFL. But it's also its biggest enemy. It's kinda like life..everything in moderation. You need players with a very unique skill set to be able to run the no-huddle as your base offense (aka majority of the plays).

Anyways, I know everyone will tout Joe Flacco for "mastering" the no-huddle offense but the truth is Cam called a great game and they used no-huddle roughly a third of the plays. Don't get me wrong, Flacco played really well. He made some big boy throws under pressure placing the ball out of danger only where his receivers can catch it. But he will take his lumps because Cam Cameron is not going to call the perfect no-huddle game every time. Flacco and Matt Ryan seem to have taken the next step towards the top 5. We'll see if they continue on this path this season.

That's it for week 1. Enjoy Week 2 everyone!