2014 NFL Picks

2014-15 NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTION
DAVE					JAY
SEEDING	WILDCARD	DIVISIONAL	CONFERENCE	SUPERBOWL	SEEDING	WILDCARD	DIVISIONAL	CONFERENCE	SUPERBOWL
AFC					AFC
1Denver	Baltimore				1 New England	Baltimore
		Denver					New England
2 New England		Baltimore			2 Denver		Indianapolis
	San Diego					NY Jets
3 Baltimore			Denver		3 Baltimore			New England
			New England					Denver
4 Indianapolis	Indy				4 Indianapolis	Indianapolis
		New England		AFC CHAMP			Denver		AFC CHAMP
5 Cincinati		Cincinati		Denver	5 Pittsburgh		Baltimore		New England
	Cincinati					Pittsburgh
6 San Diego				WINNER	6 NY Jets				WINNER
				Denver					Seattle
NFC					NFC
1 New Orleans	Green Bay			NFC CHAMP	1 New Orleans	Green Bay			NFC CHAMP
		New Orleans		New Orleans			New Orleans		Seattle
2 Seattle		Chicago			2 Seattle		Philadelphia
	San Fran					San Fran
3 Green Bay			New Orleans		3 Green Bay			New Orleans
			Green Bay					Seattle
4 Philadelphia	Philadelphia				4 Philadelphia	Philadelphia
		Seattle					Seattle
5 Chicago		Green Bay			5 Chicago		Green Bay
	Chicago					Chicago
6 San Fran					6 San Fran

NFL Playoff Picks - 2013 Season

For the past couple of years, before the first game of the season, my buddy and I have guessed the teams we each think will make the playoffs and go on to win the Superbowl. Last year, we both had the Ravens winning the big game. I had them playing the Falcons. My buddy had them playing the 49ers. Obviously he won, and I had to buy him dinner. 

Anyways, here are my picks for this year. 

Me: 

AFC:

1. Broncos (bye)

2. Patriots (bye)

3. Bengals

4. Colts

5. Ravens

6. Chiefs

Wildcard Round:

#3 Bengals v. #6 Chiefs = #3 Bengals 

#4 Colts v. #5 Ravens = #4 Colts 

Divisional Round:

#1 Broncos v. #4 Colts = #1 Broncos

#2 Patriots v. #3 Bengals = #2 Patriots

Championship game:

#1 Broncos v. #2 Patriots = #1 Broncos

NFC:

1. Falcons (bye) 

2. Niners (bye)

3. Cowboys

4. Packers

5. Seahawks

6. Redskins

Wildcard Round:

#3 Cowboys v. #6 Redskins = #3 Cowboys

#4 Packers v. #5 Seahawks = #4 Packers

Divisional Round:

#1 Falcons v. #3 Cowboys = #3 Cowboys

#2 Niners v. #4 Packers = #2 Niners

Championship game:

#2 Niners v. #3 Cowboys = #2 Niners

SUPERBOWL:

Niners v. Broncos = Niners

Belichick spills the beans, and Chad and Pacman finally get it!

It's June. It's supposed to be the NFL off-season. It's OTA and mini-camp season. It's the season that is dominated by boring baseball plays on Sportscenter Top 10 and other boring NFL "news "that is pumped up to be ever so important by the media. "Coach X said Player Y was dominating OTA's and is poised to have a huge year." Awesome, can't wait to draft all 50 guys on my fantasy squad this year only to watch them fall flat on their face.

So why am I bothering to blog about this? Well, unless you've been living under a rock for the past week, you already know that Chad "OchoCinco" Johnson is headed to jail for 30 days, Adam "Pacman" Jones has been arrested and charged with assault and the Evil Empire (Read: New England Patriots) have signed #1 Jesus fan Tim Tebow.

Chad Johnson might be a funny guy, but he's an idiot. First off, if you are on probation for domestic violence for head butting your former wife, and then you violate that probation due to a "miscommunication", any court appearance you make should be in a business suit....not a button down half-sleeve like you're going clubbing in Miami straight after. Secondly, when you want the judge and the opposing party to do you a solid, you don't show up in aforementioned button down half-sleeve, chewing gum, and smack your lawyer in the "back-side" and make the courtroom laugh out loud during your proceedings. Finally, don't tweet about it after you get sent to jail.

Pacman, bro, you just don't get it. You cannot keep your nose clean. I don't understand why he is on an NFL roster. There's been guys that have been cut for far less. And I get that he's very talented. But he's a headache and a liability. He cannot help your team from jail. Pacman was charged with assault because he allegedly assaulted a woman outside a Cincinnati bar. Now, there's three versions to this story just like any - Pacman's, his victim's, and the truth. According to Pacman the alleged victim and her friend were taunting him and later asked for his autograph at which point the principled Mr. Jones declined politely and then the alleged victim threw a beer bottle at Pacman who, in an act to defend himself, hit the alleged victim in the face. According to the alleged victim, "He was harassing my friends and saying derogatory things towards my friend and I stood up to him and he called me a 'bitch' and punched me in the head." Now the video does not show her throw a bottle at him but instead does show her pour beer at him. I've seen some crazy white chicks but never a 110 lb girl pour a beer on a jacked up NFL player with his even bigger friend next to him for no reason. Who knows what happened. All I know is, Pacman, shouldn't you be at home reading newspaper and then sipping on your lemonade before you go to bed at 10pm?

Finally, Tywin Lannister, I mean, Bill Belichick...touche. (Yes that was a Game of Thrones reference. If you don't watch it, screw you). Nobody gives out virtually no information in his press conferences like the evil genius. And he's mastered it. He enjoys it, evidenced by the smirk that escapes his grip every now and then. I listened to his nine minute press conference after the Patriots signed Tim Tebow to a two year contract, and I think I counted one instance where Billy B refers to Tebow by name. In fact, he started off that press conference like he was just talking about the Patriots offseason in general, as if Tebow was just one piece of the enormous puzzle. That's exactly how it should be. Love him or hate him, you gotta respect Belichick. He either knows exactly how they will use Tebow or he doesn't, but what will he gain from relaying that information? It stands in such stark contrast to how the Jets handled Tebow.

As far as Tebow, he has been signed to one of two or three teams that I consider are perfect places for him to land for several reasons:

1. There will never be a question as to who the starting quarterback of the New England Patriots is. As long as Brady is healthy, he's the guy. No amount of media questioning or fan/front office pressure can make Tebow the starter in New England.

2. Nobody knows how to use Tebow in the NFL better than Josh McDaniels. He, formerly the head coach of the Broncos, who traded three picks to draft Tebow in the first round and hitch his team's success and his future as a head coach to Tebow.

3. No other team handles media scrutiny better than the New England Patriots. Belichick's press conference was just a taste. Later on, Tebow's introduction to the media consisted of a 30 second "hello" followed by no questions. Again, in stark contrast to how the New York Jets handled his signing just last year.

4. Belichick loves versatility. He covets it in his players. That's why you see him pick relative unknowns in the draft every year. Dare I say, it's the skill he covets the most. And that's exactly what Tebow brings to the table, athletically.  He can play fullback, H-back, running back, tight end, up-back or personal protector on punt teams, and oh yeah - quarterback. Or at least, he can present a higher danger of throwing the football than, say, Ronnie Brown out of the wildcat.

Bottom line, Tebow is not guaranteed anything (money or a roster spot). Watch Tebow put on camouflage and fade into the background this year so he can focus on doing his job and the Patriots can continue winning. Or he ends up being a bust and cut by the end of training camp. Either way, you won't be hearing much on him from Foxboro anytime soon. And that's exactly how it should be.

NFL Draft - QB Notes

These are my notes I took from watching film of some of the QB's in this draft from their bowl games a few months back. I should've posted them before the draft but I forgot.

GENO SMITH, QB (West Virginia) 6'3", 220 lbs:
- Was asked to run a multiple offense, everything from pistol to traditional I to singleback. 

Negatives:
- Slow release
- Happy feet in the pocket
- Shoddy footwork
- Dropback from under center is too slow and uncoordinated
- Doesn't do a good job of carrying out play-action fakes
- Very inaccurate on short throws (mostly footwork related + field conditions were bad)
- Poor mechanics on deep throws (caveat: field conditions)

Positives:
- Flashes good accuracy and strong arm on intermediate throws
- Plenty of army strength to make all the throws

Outlook: He has all the physical tools to be a starting QB in the NFL but he needs a lot of work on his footwork, mechanics, and field awareness. Most of his college throws were behind or within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage which inflate his stats a bit. Based purely on physical traits, he's a borderline first rounder. But add the coaching he needs, he shouldn't go before middle of the second round.

RYAN NASSIB, QB (Syracuse) 6'3", 230lbs:
- Was running a high tempo offense (mostly shotgun spread)

Negatives:
- Short, choppy drop back (but mostly due to field conditions)
- Inaccurate when rolling out of the pocket, usually high and outside
- Mediocre deep ball accuracy
- Arm strength on deep balls is suspect, evidenced by the height of his throws.

Positives:
- Quick, strong release
- True spiral on his throws
- Good footwork out of shotgun, consistent and he sets up very quickly to get rid of the ball
- Adequate arm strength to make all the throws in the NFL, but will need better mechanics on deep balls

Outlook: Overall he is a bit limited skill-wise but he is a very polished passer. His decision making needs to improve at the next level. His mechanics in the pocket and awareness are very good. Does a very good job of avoiding pressure and he maintained his level of play in the worst of conditions (rain/sleet/wind). He is the closest of this group to come in and start in the NFL but his upside is somewhat limited due to a limited skill set. He's best in a west coast offense.

EJ MANUEL, QB (Florida State) 6'5", 240lbs:
- Ran a no huddle, West Coast offense, mostly 3 to 5 step drops, and shotgun. Ran a good chunk of option plays as well.

Negatives:
- Poor pre-snap adjustments, needs work on varying snap count and making consistently proper sight adjustments
- Throws to his first look too often

Positives:
- Excellent footwork and patience on play action fakes
- Quick release at the top of his dropback and nice, tight spiral.
- Very athletic for a man his size
- Cool in the face of pressure, maintains composure and footwork and delivers the ball accurately
- Good touch on short/swing passes
- Plenty of arm strength to put zip on the football
- Extends plays with his feet well
- Accurate passer on the run to both sides of the field

Outlook: Easily the most gifted passer in this class. However, he is not as polished as some of the more experienced guys. He played behind Christian Ponder mostly due to lack of experience. He reminds me of a rawer Cam Newton. He's farther along than Geno Smith as a passer but still would benefit from sitting behind a veteran for at least half a season.

EJ Manuel ended up being a first round pick to the Bills; Geno Smith was a second round pick to the Jets; Ryan Nassib ended up with the Giants as a fourth round pick.

NFL Draft Six-Pack

The 2013 NFL Draft is upon us and it has been another crazy scouting off-season in the NFL. Just a few thoughts before tomorrow nights festivities kick off:

1. This is the first time, since I've started religiously following the draft, that nobody knows who the Chiefs will pick with the first overall pick. That is a result of two things, in my opinion. One - There is no consensus #1 player in this draft. But such has been the case in the recent past, so that is not an anomaly. Two - With the rookie salary cap in place since last year, teams picking #1 overall won't be tipping their picks by negotiating with them before the draft. Last year, we all knew since mid-season 2011 that Andrew Luck was going #1. All the RG3 talk made it interesting, but ultimately I don't think anyone in the NFL community actually believed that the #1 pick would be anyone but Andrew Luck. This year, as a result of both of the above factors, this will be a more exciting draft simply due to the "unknown" factor.

2. Over the past three months I've heard a lot of reports, and subsequently confirmed for myself by watching a little tape, that this draft is light in the top ten picks but pretty deep overall, especially in the offensive line and the defensive front seven. This means the rich keep getting richer because playoff teams will have the chance to pick a player that really might not be graded much lower or at all than the top 10 picks.

3. I envy the 49ers roster. A Super Bowl squad before we even begin the draft + Anquan Boldin in free agency + 13 picks in this draft to wheel and deal around to get the players they want or get future picks. That is how you build a franchise and set it up for success. Kudos to Trent Baalke

4. Speaking of the Super Bowl, this is where the Ravens build their roster. Living down the street from the stadium in Baltimore, I heard a lot of fans panicking a little when they saw Ozzie Newsome gut the Super Bowl winning roster of numerous starters on both sides of the ball, including franchise icon Ed Reed and Playoff MVP Anquan Boldin. Add the fact that their emotional leader Ray Lewis also stepped away from the game and I could almost understand the Ravens' fans anguish. But Newsome, like in the past, stayed relatively quiet in the first wave of free agency and then came away with the best pass rusher who became available due to a fax snafu, Elvis Dumervil, and a solid free safety to replace Reed, Michael Huff. I expect Ozzie to quietly pick the best player available on their board and keep re-tooling the Ravens roster. After all, they lost eight starters the previous off-season and then went on to win the Super Bowl. I trust in Ozzie.

5. Tavon Austin reminds me those Leon Sandcastle ads on NFL Network. Before the combine, he was a second round pick. Since blowing up the combine with a  4.34 forty yard dash, media pundits have vaulted him to as high as the #4 overall pick. He's a slot receiver who is a nightmare to tackle in the open field, but I don't see a top-20 player when I watch him. He's been the hottest name in the draft so far.

6. This is also the first draft that I can remember where there isn't a consensus #1 QB, or even a top three QB list that scouts and media experts can agree on. I've seen Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, EJ Manuel, and even Landry Jones as the top QB in this draft. This is one of the main reasons for point #1 above. And this is also why the Chiefs, Raiders, Eagles, Cardinals, and the Bills (all picking in the top-8) went out and got veteran QB's this off-season. Nobody is completely sold on the QB class this year but the fact that it's the most important position on the football field will vault them up the draft board and thus dictate much of the movement in this draft.

Enjoy the draft everyone and let me know if you'd like me to post anything about a particular player or team after the draft.

Winning the Super Bowl in March

Free Agency, in my opinion, should never be relied upon to build the core of your team. In football, unlike baseball or basketball, simply getting the most productive player available at his position does not guarantee you continued production. In fact, it doesn't necessarily even make it likely. I've always seen NFL free agency as a few teams, usually the same ones that aren't playing into January regularly, overpay for mediocre talent, while smart teams, the ones that do go deep into the playoffs, make good value deals after the first wave or two of free agency has passed.

Like anything else, there are always exceptions. Last year we saw the Colts part with one of the best quarterbacks of our generation and a sure-fire hall of famer with still a few years left in him. It took a season-ending injury and a "once every ten years" prospect in Andrew Luck for the Colts to even consider releasing Manning. My point is this: every general manager and front office has a valuation of every player close to entering free agency. The ones who are able to properly evaluate the value of the available player AND stay disciplined to that evaluation are the ones that consistently put a playoff roster together. You look at the Ozzie Newsomes and the Bill Belichicks of the world, there's a reason why their respective teams consistently make the playoffs while still never enter salary cap hell. Yes they have the big quarterback question answered, and of course coaching has a lot to do with it, but what separates the good teams from the great is the middle to lower thirds of the roster. Every playoff team has made it there with quality depth because football is a violent sport and chances are you will lose a few starters along the way to injuries.

Just last year, the Bucaneers and the Bills were universally hailed as free agency winners and where were they in January? Free agency is an exciting time for NFL fans, but just be careful of overreacting one way or the other on your team's moves. The Ravens traded away Boldin because he refused to take a $2 million dollar paycut and the Patriots let Welker walk and sign with the Broncos for essentially $1 million per year. These may seem like horrible decisions but Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick are two of the best GMs in football. In the words of Scott Pioli, "free agency is a fine line between paying for past and future performance." I'm not saying the Niners or the Broncos made bad decisions by signing Boldin or Welker, respectively. In fact, I think the decisions by all four franchises involved are sound. It just shows that the Niners and the Broncos valued Boldin and Welker, respectively, a little more than the Ravens and the Patriots did. Who ended up making the better decision? We'll see in the next couple of years. But one thing is for sure, Super Bowls aren't won in March.

NFL Combine - 40 times, workouts, and Manti Te'o

The annual "underwear olympics", as NFL Network's Mike Mayock calls it, is upon us. As usual, the most talked about event at the combine (and the most overrated in my opinion) is the 40 yard dash. The least talked about event is usually the medical examinations but ironically is probably the most important as far as NFL teams are concerned. Following the combine for the past few years I've learned that teams generally use the combine for information gathering. Contrary to popular belief, the 40 time does not automatically improve or hurt a player's draft stock. What it does is force the teams to go back and watch more tape on a particular player if he times slower or faster than expected. All the drills at the combine serve teams as an indicator. If the guy runs as fast and moves as well as expected then the combine drills serve as a reinforcement of what the tape has shown all year. However if the guy runs faster or slower, or does better or worse in the combine drills then teams will dig hard to find out why. Did the player lose weight since the college season to move faster/smoother? Is that weight ideal for his frame in the NFL? Did he maintain his strength while shaving off the fractions of a second of his 40 time? Every year there's a handful of athletes who blow the doors off the combine and get over-drafted. The past few years I've seen teams like the Raiders and Jets blow early picks on workout warriors who go on to disappoint once the pads go on.

Every year there's a few players that NFL teams have more question marks on than the average player that can be answered at the combine. In my opinion, this year, the top 10 list is as follows:

1. Manti Te'o, LB (ND): His biggest hurdles will be the team interviews and really all the drills. No player, in my opinion, has as much to lose or gain as Te'o does this weekend. He is off to a good start with his press conference yesterday where he answered every question with genuine honesty, in my opinion. Now he needs to show teams that the national championship game tape was an aberration in the drills and by having a good bench press number to show his strength. 

2. Geno Smith, QB (WVU): He needs to show teams his speed and arm strength in drills. His 40 time will either solidify the general consensus that he is capable of running the read option in the NFL that has gained popularity this year or not.

3. Jarvis Jones, LB (GA): His biggest hurdle is the medical examinations. Teams have a lot of concern over whether his spinal stenosis diagnosis at USC will limit his career in the NFL. We saw DeQuan Bowers in the recent past go from a top-5 pick to mid 2nd round due to medical issues. Jarvis is probably a top 5-10 pick on tape but he may also take a huge tumble on draft day if enough teams don't see favorable medical reports on him.

4. Cordarelle Patterson, WR (TENN): Patterson is very green and last year was his first full year starting. But, on tape, he looked explosive with the ball in his hands and a natural pass catcher. He reminded me of Julio Jones a little bit and if his 40 time and his WR drills confirm this, he might sneak into the top 10.

5. Tavon Austin, WR (WVU): Austin is a dynamic play maker in space and his 40 time will likely confirm this. If he can show teams that he is a natural pass catcher in drills while making adjustments on the fly and if his height/weight doesn't come up lower than expected he could sneak himself into the first round. NFL teams would love to have a wild-card like Austin in the slot.

6. Tyler Eifert, TE (ND): Many teams have a two-way tie for the number one tight end this year between Eifert and Zac Ertz of Stanford. I think Eifert jumps off at you on tape just a bit more and having a better 40 time and a better performance in the drills might solidify him as the top tight end in this year's class and a mid-first round pick.

7. Dion Jordan, LB (OR): Jordan is a very intriguing prospect in that he was very productive and his ideal length and array of pass rush moves could be very useful as a 3-4 OLB. With more teams moving to the 3-4 this year, they will be paying close attention to Jordan's wingspan, how he moves in the drills, and his 3-cone drill time. He could be a top 10 pick in April when all is said and done.

8. Margus Hunt, DE (SMU): Hunt has what a lot of teams are looking for - size, speed, and athleticism on the defensive line. At 6'8", 280 and a plethora of pass rushing moves, and the versatility to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end, teams will be looking to see if he has JJ Watt like qualities. They certainly show up on tape, now he needs to show that his measurables are on par with his tape. If so, he will sneak into the first round.
 
9. Mike Glennon, QB (NC ST): The general consesnsus around the league is that Geno Smith is the top quarterback as of now, although he is not exactly on solid ground. After him, it's between Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. Glennon's strengths are his rocket arm and more than ideal height. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of mobility, and his composure/pocket presence. It'll be hard for him to show teams that he's overcome those weaknesses in a combine setting but he can at least reassure teams on his arm strength and show them he has more mobility than expected by showing well in the movement drills.


10. Tyler Wilson, QB (ARK): Like Glennon, Wilson is battling for that 2nd spot behind Geno Smith. He needs to answer questions on his arm strength and accuracy. He had a better Junior season than Senior so he also needs to score well in his interviews. If he's able to convince teams that his digression from 2011 to 2012 was more a product of his head coach leaving and a lack of playmakers all the while maintaining his leadership qualities and taking some of the blame himself he might enter the late first round discussion. As of now, he's a 2nd rounder to me.

By the way, asides from all the potential rookies that NFL teams will be closely watching this weekend, the combine has also served as a meeting point for NFL GMs and their own unrestricted free agents. It's a rare occasion where all 32 GMs will be present in one building and sports agents use this venue to start having face to face meetings.